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Independent Market Analysis From a Realpolitik Perspective |
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Volume 3, No. 12 May 2008
Do you want to trade like a professional? If you do, Insider Intelligence is for you because when you trade along with the senior traders, you can learn and earn at the same time. Insider Intelligence offers two types of subscriptions. First, you can sign up online, using the SUBSCRIBE button above -- just $99 for a 6 month subscription. This online subscription includes extensive weekly market summaries and general trading recommendations for the following week, white papers, analysis of global macro-economic trends, as well as news-analysis of markets worldwide and the opportunity to email us with your trading questions. Or you can subscribe to the Daily Real Time Market Advisory Service, a teleconference call throughout the day, every hour on the hour, to help you make the right trades. Using this service, you can trade with the experts -- the senior day traders at Insider Intelligence. If you are a subscriber to Insider Intelligence, then you are eligible to try out the real-time market advisory service -- a FREE sample of the Daily Real Time Teleconference Line. Just call 866 317 1390 and we'll give you the details. Subscribe now using the online subscription button above, or call 866 317 1390 with your credit card number and we'll get you subscribed manually. If you really want to learn how to trade like a professional trader and you have an account set up, Insider Intelligence can show you how to make a profit with day trading. Even though this service is primarily for active and seasoned traders, one of our subscribers says, "This is the best trading education on the internet." When you subscribe to the Daily Market Trading Service, you too can call in and speak to Al Martin and the Insider Intelligence senior traders and hear hourly updates between 8:00 a.m.-3:00 p.m. EST, as well as our special 8:25 a.m. reports for important 8:30 a.m. ECR's, and our special 8:00 p.m. EST overnight market preview session Monday-Thursday & Sunday. Insider Intelligence is a Do It Yourself Market Service. We do not manage any accounts. To subscribe to this day trading market service and get the teleconferencing number and your own PIN, please call 866-317-1390 This site advises trading in commodity future contracts in the S&P E-Minis, US T-Bonds, the DX dollar contract, metals, ags & the softs. DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors. Day trading involves high risks. Always analyze the level of risk you are assuming. Past performance is just past performance and it doesn't mean that it can neccesarily be replicated in the future. The information, tools and material presented on InsiderIntelligence.com (this web site) are provided for informational purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or a solicitation to sell or an offer or solicitation to buy or subscribe for securities, investment products or other financial instruments, nor to constitute any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities, investment products or other financial instruments. The use of InsiderIntelligence.com is at your own sole risk and this service is provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis. Insider Intelligence.com makes no warranty that the website will be uninterrupted, timely, secure or error free.
Key index: L = long; S = sold; SS = short; C = covered. Contract symbols -- USM: June Long bond; DXM: June dollars; CLM: June NYMEX oil; GCM: June COMEX gold; SBN: July NYBOT sugar; LBN: July CME lumber; OJN: July NYBOT orange juice; WN: July CBOT wheat; CTN: July NYBOT cotton; CCN: July NYBOT cocoa; KCN: July NYBOT coffee; HGN: July COMEX copper; SIN: July COMEX silver Month symbols -- January: F, February: B, March: H, April: J, May: K, June: M, July: N, August: Q, September: U, October: V, November: X, December: Z
TRADING MISTAKES YOU SHOULD AVOID: These are the common mistakes that we see on Insider Intelligence. com, which lead people to burn themselves out. 1. First, you've got to treat your trading like a business because that's what it is -- a business. You have to devote time to it like you are running a business. You have to have it set up as a business entity, like some sort of trading corporation, so that you can deduct all of your losses, for example, and you can deduct related expenses. Most people don't do this and they wind up with big losses that they can't use. Or they have expenses, such as - fee services- or various computer-related costs that are deductible, which they don't deduct. Treat it like a business. Set it up like a business. 2. Don't start trading until you are completely set up to trade. By "set up," I mean this mechanically. You don't start trading until you have your account open, until you have your computer quote screen set up the right way, until you have real-time streaming quotes, and until you have some sort of technical package that is a chart/graph type package, that is apropos to day trading. You don't need to spend that much money. So many people do this, because the electronic IB's (Introducing Brokers) try to peddle a lot of expensive technical software packages that day traders, frankly, don't need. These programs have too much. In other words, day traders, by and large, do not need RSIs, 14-day Relative Strength Indicators, or moving-average convergence/divergence information, or histograms. That software gets very expensive very quickly, and day traders really don't need it 3. No matter how much money you start with, don't start trading multiple lots or multiple contracts right away. Because if you start trading 5 lots, which is what I oftentimes do, and you have to average out, then you've got to put on potentially another 5. And suddenly you've got your entire account committed to one position. Then your account could become illiquid very, very quickly. And you risk a sizable loss from which you cannot recover if you don't know how to trade. Start out with one-position lots only, in what you're trading. Don't try to load up with lots to make the so-called big hit. That's not what this business is about. This business is about accumulating small profits. Incrementally and consistently over time. Also, if you do not understand Economics 101, or if you don't know anything about the markets, be they commodity markets, equity, debt markets, etc., you should establish, and all brokerage firms offer this when you open an account, a paper-trading program, initially, where you can 'trade on paper.' That is, you're entering the same trades, the same account, it's just not real and you're not losing your 'real' money. You can open what's called a paper-trading account to try to get some practice, and to try to get some feel of the markets. Because, in the last analysis, that's what day trading is about, the ability to 'feel the tape.' This is something that takes a lifetime to learn. It cannot be taught to you by any book. You can't do it or understand it overnight unless you've been involved in the markets all of your life. 4. Another pitfall is not understanding that there are costs involved. For instance, people seem to think that you open up a brokerage account and the broker you're doing business with is going to provide you with everything as part of a service for doing business with them, free of charge. Not so. For instance, to get streaming real-time quotes in all markets in all sessions, you've got to pay the exchange fees, about $400/month. And there are, in fact, a variety of costs. For some reason, people are not aware that there are costs associated with trading commodity futures. In order to day trade, you have to have real-time streaming quotes. You have to have a level-one trade platform, a rather sophisticated trade platform with a lot of ancillary services, most of which are for a fee. And you may be subscribed to one or more trading publications or advisory services, etc. But you've got to expect that your trading costs could likely be as much as $2,000/month. You're running a business. And that's how it should be set up. This is why the 90% 9-week fraction exists in this industry. That is, that 90% of all new people coming into it will lose money. And, indeed, every new $10,000 account turns over in 9 weeks. In conclusion, with the big hit comes the big risk. People have to understand that People must understand that, in the commodity futures trading business, success is measured by consistency over time. Would be traders must learn the markets. People tell me -- Al, how can you possibly know all this? Or they say, It can't be as complex as that. Because you don't make it sound complex. I said, you know, there was a quote in Commodity Futures magazine -- statistical analysis proved that successfully trading commodity futures over a long term was more complex than brain surgery. And it is. But a brain surgeon makes it sound simple if they've been doing it for 30 years. It's the same with trading commodity futures. What I'm saying also is I've noticed that people get very enamored of trading manuals and books on technical trading, on fundamental trades, or the books that you see on the infomercials: How to learn trading commodities in 3 easy steps for $69.95. There is no such thing. There is no easy way. You can't open your account from your La Z Boy and say, Oh, well, Al, with my $35,000 account, I want to make my $20,000 a week too. It isn't like that. Victims of the Kowboy Ken Trading System Scam all across the country must learn that you cannot learn to trade commodities in 3 Easy Steps -- because it is the most complex thing you can imagine. A few words to the wise guy: Day trading takes hard work and commitment. |
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What In the World Is Going on With Copper and the Bonds?
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Al Martin is an independent financial, economic and political analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC.
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