Continuing Global Uncertainties Create Continuing Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Monday, 13 July 2015 13:31

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(7-12-15) Sep. Long Bond contracts fall again in Friday’s trade, down another 1-5/8 points, bringing the total decline in Sep. Long Bonds to 5 points since Wednesday’s close. Although we have been trading the Bonds from the short side, we continue to look for a place on the closes to buy them. Once again we are long the Bonds from 141.50. The Sunday night action in Bonds and Spoos largely depend on European/ Greek  events which are yet to unfold. Although we also have already shorted the Spoos in Friday trade on our standing orders at 72.50 and are carrying the Spoos into the Monday session at that level. Also we have shorted the Euros at 112.18 and are carrying them into Sunday night as well.

The Aug. Oil contract, although having lifted in late week trade, largely on the back of weaker dollar action, we see weekly crude inventories continue to build once again at a time of the year when they should be falling. We are now selling the Oil on our standing orders at 53.20 and covering on 50 cent dips.

Aug. Gold which had come down for a test of 1150 midweek as we had suggested and even broke stops underneath was able to rally back in late week trade on Euro gains as well as fear bid developed over deteriorating Chinese fundamentals. We continue to look to short the Gold on moves up to 1170, covering on dips down to 1160.

The October Sugar contract which had fallen back sharply midweek was able to reverse. We took the Sugar from 12.33 down to 11.83 in midweek session. Our 12.01 buy stops were hit in Friday’s trade allowing us to take another 40 points out of the Sugar as Sugar snapped back on supposedly bogus Brazilian supply report. We think the Sugar is now a short again at current levels.

July Orange Juice – we had shorted on our standing order at1.23 in last week’s trade and were able to take 4 cents out of the contract. We continue to like to sell Juice above 1.20.

September Lumber – coming back up for a retap of the highs. However we believe the contract remains shortable on moves to 296 or better, looking to cover on $5-10 dips.

The Grains remained volatile in late week trade as global crop and inventory reports suggested that the recent US Corn harvest was going to be less that what ha d been expected. However we think the Corn remains a short and are looking to sell the December Corn on any continuation up to 4.50.

The Sep. Wheat contract – we continue to trade from the short side and believe that the contract should be shorted on moves above 5.90.

The Nov. Bean contract which has tagged along for the ride, we continue to sell on our standing orders at 10.30, covering on 20 cent dips, a trade we continue to like.

The Sep. Silver contract which we had warned would play “catch-down” to the rest of the metals complex did so midweek in a sharp 75 cent one day fall. We had known that the Silver tends to get overvalued, then plays “catch-down” in a single session. Silver now recovered back above $15 and is shortable again in the 15.60 or better area.

October Platinum also came up off its lows. We had been short from 1041 and had covered at 1021.  We are looking to short the October Platinum again on moves back to 1040.

The Sep. Copper contract after holding initial test at the 1050 area has played some catch-up in late week trade. We think the Copper is overdone. We shorted the Copper 3 times at 2.56 in Friday trade, taking 2 cents out of each trade. We continue to like to sell the Copper at 2.56 or better.

Sep. Coffee – although holding the 1.20 test for now, we continue to look to short the Coffee on moves back to 1.27 or better and have in fact done so twice in late week trade and were able to take a penny and a half out of the contract . Continue to short the Coffee on moves back to 1.2740 or better.


Cocoa after having fallen more than $100 in previous week’s action came back on supposed supply tightness in West African crop. We think this is once again bogus. The Cocoa should be shorted on moves back to 3320 or better.


December Cotton still moving lower after our recommendation to sell the Cotton at 67.94 in the previous week’s trade We have now covered half of our cotton, taking 2 cents out. We believe the December Cotton is coming down for a test of 63 cents.



 

Greek Vote In: Will Starvation Prevail?

Written by Al Martin Monday, 06 July 2015 01:04

(7-5-15) With the Greek “No” vote ending in a surprising majority, expect substantial reaction in Sunday night trade. We would expect the Long Bond contract to lift as much as 1-1/2 points in Sunday’s overnight session. However Bonds still being topped on moves above 151. If you’re not already long, be short seller on moves up to 151.12 or higher.

Read more: Greek Vote In: Will Starvation Prevail?

 

Deteriorating Greek Situation Represents Fresh Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 28 June 2015 23:10

 (6-28-15) With the Greek debt dilemma now carried over the weekend with no apparent agreement in sight, we would expect the Sep. Long Bonds rally in Sunday’s overnight trade. Bonds had fallen back in Friday’s action. We had shorted the Bonds on our special recommendation at 148.20, covering them on our standing order at 147.20. We had gotten long the Bonds again on our standing orders at 147.16 and are long from that level. We would expect the Bonds to move back above 148 in Sunday night’s trade.

Read more: Deteriorating Greek Situation Represents Fresh Opportunities

 

Bonds Move Higher in Line with Our Predictions

Written by Al Martin Monday, 22 June 2015 14:27

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(6-21-15) The Sep. Long Bond did move higher throughout last week. We continue to be a buyer on dips down to the 150.12 area, selling on 1 to 1-1/2 point lifts. Bonds finally got above 152 in late Friday action as Greek-generated fear bid returns to the market. Bonds held 152 close. We would now be looking to buy Bonds on a dip down to the 151 area.

The July Oil – also unable to rally throughout the week. We had suggested to be sellers at 60.50 or better. Indeed we were throughout the week, selling the Oil 7 times at 60.50- 61.00 throughout the week, covering on $1 dips. Although the Oil continues to hold 58.70 for now, we are still looking for lower prices in the Oil.

The Aug. Gold contract also picked up, propelled by new highs in the Euros, which we were sellers of on rallies to 1.14 or better, covering on bip dips. Euros severely overbought at current levels. Gold – also overbought. We are now short the Gold from 1205 and would be looking for a retest of the 1190 area in the coming week’s trade.

July Sugar continues to move lower in line with our predictions of recent weeks. We continue to sell the Sugar now on rallies back to 11.30 or better, covering on 20 cent dips. We expect the 11.00 area will give way in the coming week’s trade.

Late short covering action in the July Orange Juice prompted by Caribbean storms. However we think this is overdone. We sold the Juice again at 1.2030 on the close Friday and would be looking for a move back down to the 1.15 area to cover.

July Lumber continues to experience rollover bid, although natural resistance at 300 keeping the Lumber in check. We continue to sell at 298, covering on dips back to 293. Look to accumulate a short position in the Sep. Lumber.

Grains continue to move irregularly lower. We continue to sell the July Beans on  rallies to 9.8 or better covering on 10-15 cent dips. We continue to sell the July Corn on rallies to 3.60 or better, covering on 10 cent dips. We continue to sell the July Wheat on moves back to $5, covering on 10-15 cent dips as well. Look for lower prices in the Grains.

July Cotton – also consistently being turned back now on moves to 64.50. We have reduced our sell orders from 65.50 to 64.50, covering on penny dips.

July Cocoa – attempted breakout in Friday’s action failed at the 3300 level, giving up a good short trade down to 3245. Look to sell the July Lumber again on any retest of 3300.

Sep. Coffee – good break once again after we were short sellers at 1.32, covering at 1.30 in Friday’s trade. Coffee has now established a second close under 1.30 and should be shorted on any moves back to 1.3150 or better.

The July Silver contract -- continuing tepid action relative to the Gold. We have been consistently selling the Silver in the 16.12 – 16.20 area, covering on 30-40 cent dips.  We continue to like that area for fresh shorting opportunities.

Short covering action also seen late week in the Platinum. We shorted the Platinum again at 1085 Friday and would be looking to take $10 out of the contract in the coming week’s trade.

July Copper – finally breaking the 2.60 support area. We had been consistently shorting the Copper at 2.63 throughout the week, covering on 3 cent dips. Our 2.5995 sell stop--  hit in Thursday overnight action, allowing us to take 3 cents out of the Copper. Copper has lower to go.





 

Commodities Move Irregularly Lower as June Swoon Commences

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 14 June 2015 22:32

 (6-14-15) The Sep. Long Bond contracts – we are now trading from the long side on dips, noting that the contract continues to hold 150. We had been getting long the contract on dips down to 150.06 and have been sellers on moves up to 151. Good 10- and 30-year auctions last week – in fact the best of the year. We’ve also seen the German Bunds come off the boil. Bonds look good again.

Read more: Commodities Move Irregularly Lower as June Swoon Commences

 

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