Deteriorating Greek Situation Represents Fresh Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 28 June 2015 23:10

 (6-28-15) With the Greek debt dilemma now carried over the weekend with no apparent agreement in sight, we would expect the Sep. Long Bonds rally in Sunday’s overnight trade. Bonds had fallen back in Friday’s action. We had shorted the Bonds on our special recommendation at 148.20, covering them on our standing order at 147.20. We had gotten long the Bonds again on our standing orders at 147.16 and are long from that level. We would expect the Bonds to move back above 148 in Sunday night’s trade.

Read more: Deteriorating Greek Situation Represents Fresh Opportunities

 

Bonds Move Higher in Line with Our Predictions

Written by Al Martin Monday, 22 June 2015 14:27

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(6-21-15) The Sep. Long Bond did move higher throughout last week. We continue to be a buyer on dips down to the 150.12 area, selling on 1 to 1-1/2 point lifts. Bonds finally got above 152 in late Friday action as Greek-generated fear bid returns to the market. Bonds held 152 close. We would now be looking to buy Bonds on a dip down to the 151 area.

The July Oil – also unable to rally throughout the week. We had suggested to be sellers at 60.50 or better. Indeed we were throughout the week, selling the Oil 7 times at 60.50- 61.00 throughout the week, covering on $1 dips. Although the Oil continues to hold 58.70 for now, we are still looking for lower prices in the Oil.

The Aug. Gold contract also picked up, propelled by new highs in the Euros, which we were sellers of on rallies to 1.14 or better, covering on bip dips. Euros severely overbought at current levels. Gold – also overbought. We are now short the Gold from 1205 and would be looking for a retest of the 1190 area in the coming week’s trade.

July Sugar continues to move lower in line with our predictions of recent weeks. We continue to sell the Sugar now on rallies back to 11.30 or better, covering on 20 cent dips. We expect the 11.00 area will give way in the coming week’s trade.

Late short covering action in the July Orange Juice prompted by Caribbean storms. However we think this is overdone. We sold the Juice again at 1.2030 on the close Friday and would be looking for a move back down to the 1.15 area to cover.

July Lumber continues to experience rollover bid, although natural resistance at 300 keeping the Lumber in check. We continue to sell at 298, covering on dips back to 293. Look to accumulate a short position in the Sep. Lumber.

Grains continue to move irregularly lower. We continue to sell the July Beans on  rallies to 9.8 or better covering on 10-15 cent dips. We continue to sell the July Corn on rallies to 3.60 or better, covering on 10 cent dips. We continue to sell the July Wheat on moves back to $5, covering on 10-15 cent dips as well. Look for lower prices in the Grains.

July Cotton – also consistently being turned back now on moves to 64.50. We have reduced our sell orders from 65.50 to 64.50, covering on penny dips.

July Cocoa – attempted breakout in Friday’s action failed at the 3300 level, giving up a good short trade down to 3245. Look to sell the July Lumber again on any retest of 3300.

Sep. Coffee – good break once again after we were short sellers at 1.32, covering at 1.30 in Friday’s trade. Coffee has now established a second close under 1.30 and should be shorted on any moves back to 1.3150 or better.

The July Silver contract -- continuing tepid action relative to the Gold. We have been consistently selling the Silver in the 16.12 – 16.20 area, covering on 30-40 cent dips.  We continue to like that area for fresh shorting opportunities.

Short covering action also seen late week in the Platinum. We shorted the Platinum again at 1085 Friday and would be looking to take $10 out of the contract in the coming week’s trade.

July Copper – finally breaking the 2.60 support area. We had been consistently shorting the Copper at 2.63 throughout the week, covering on 3 cent dips. Our 2.5995 sell stop--  hit in Thursday overnight action, allowing us to take 3 cents out of the Copper. Copper has lower to go.





 

Commodities Move Irregularly Lower as June Swoon Commences

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 14 June 2015 22:32

 (6-14-15) The Sep. Long Bond contracts – we are now trading from the long side on dips, noting that the contract continues to hold 150. We had been getting long the contract on dips down to 150.06 and have been sellers on moves up to 151. Good 10- and 30-year auctions last week – in fact the best of the year. We’ve also seen the German Bunds come off the boil. Bonds look good again.

Read more: Commodities Move Irregularly Lower as June Swoon Commences

 

Bonds Fall Back in Late Week Action As We Had Warned You Bonds Had Become Overbought

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 07 June 2015 22:29

 (6-7-15) The June Long Bond contract which we had recommended shorting just above 153 as we did, fell back in Friday’s session.  We covered our shorts which we were away at 153.08 on our standing cover order at 151.08. Bonds got some help down from a seemingly stronger than expected monthly unemployment report. However sub-components of the report would suggest that the numbers were not as strong as first appeared. Bonds although reaching a knee-jerk low at 150.19, wherein we got long the Bonds on our standing orders at 150.24 after having covered our shorts. Still long the Bonds. We expect the Bonds will hold around this 151 level and begin to rebuild last week’s gains.

Read more: Bonds Fall Back in Late Week Action As We Had Warned You Bonds Had Become Overbought

 

Markets Continue to Fall Back as Correction Takes Hold

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 31 May 2015 21:42

 (5-31-15) Our final trade in the June Long Bond contract in Friday’s session -- selling the Bonds at 157.08, covering at 156.16, was filled. We would be looking to buy the Bonds again on dips down to 156. We are looking to be short sellers on moves to 157.08 or better. Bonds are now fully recovered and are fully valued in our opinion at current levels,

Read more: Markets Continue to Fall Back as Correction Takes Hold

 

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