Bonds Remain Cheap as Euros Move Lower in Line with Our Predictions

Written by Al Martin Monday, 13 April 2015 00:19

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(4-12-15) The Long Bond contract, which we had bought on our standing order at 6304, we had sold at 6324 in Friday’s session. Although a full point on the long side of the trade was possible, late day back-off puts the Bonds back in the buying range. We would be looking to buy the Bonds again on a move down at 163.16 in Sunday night’s trade.

Read more: Bonds Remain Cheap as Euros Move Lower in Line with Our Predictions

 

Bonds Get Overextended Setting Up Good Short Selling Opportunity

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 05 April 2015 21:59

 (4-5-15) In our last week’s missive, we were buying the June Long Bond contracts which had been hit hard in last week’s end-of- quarter sell-off.  We kept scalping the Bonds from the long side up until early Thursday session, when the Bonds got above 166 representing a prime shorting opportunity.  We were out of our longs at our last lots at 165.28. We sold the Bonds short at 166, covering at 164.16, taking a point and a half out of the Bonds or $1500 per contract in Thursday’s close,

Read more: Bonds Get Overextended Setting Up Good Short Selling Opportunity

 

Stellar Opportunities in Bonds and Oil to Continue

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 March 2015 22:27

(3-29-15) On Thursday we put out an emergency buying recommendation on the June Bonds at 162.16, noting that fiscal-year end Bank of Japan selling of US Treasuries had artificially depressed the prices and that we expected a rebound in Friday’s trade. Indeed we saw that rebound with our standing sell orders at 164.08, having been filled in late edition trade. We would expect the Bonds to continue to recover back to the 165.08 area as the week progresses.

Read more: Stellar Opportunities in Bonds and Oil to Continue

 

Friday’s Euro Rally Prompts Short Covering Across the Boards

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 March 2015 23:05

(3-22-15) Friday’s rally in the Euro back to Wednesday’s highs, wherein we had first shorted the June Euros on our 1.0873 standing order, ultimately covering at 1.0597 in late Thursday trade. We were hit again on our one standing order at 1.0873 and are now short the June Euros once again. However Euro action prompted short covering rallies, particularly in the most heavily shorted complex – Copper, Silver, FCOJ, Cocoa, etc.

Read more: Friday’s Euro Rally Prompts Short Covering Across the Boards

 

Falling European Interest Rates Create Shorting Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 March 2015 22:29

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 (3-15-15) The March Long Bond – we continue to trade from the long side as yields on European sovereign bonds continue to plummet, making our 30-year Bonds ever more attractive. We had bought the Bonds again at 145.08 in Friday trade, selling them at 145.24 on the close. We think that recent selling now in the US Treasury Bonds is done and it’s time to start trading them from the long side again.

The April Oil which we had been consistently trading on rallies – we shorted again as the contract came under $49 on our 48.99 sell stop. We were able to cover the contract on our standing order at 44.96 in Friday’s trade, taking $4 out on the session. Although Oil held a $45 close, we think that it’s coming down for a test of the 44.45 recent low, possibly as early as Monday’s trade.

April Gold continues to fall back now in a 1150 - 1165 trading range. We were consistently selling the Gold throughout the week on moves to 1163, covering on $10 dips. We continue to like that trade and we believe Gold will give up the 1150 support area in the coming week’s trade.

We had warned of further declines coming in May Sugar. Indeed the 13.00 support level give way nicely in Friday’s trade. We had sold the Sugar m. o. c. at 13.21 and had a 12.71 cover order in, which was filled in Friday’s trade, taking a half a penny out of the Sugar. All the Soft and Tropical commodities are falling as well as the industrial metals complex signaling increasing global deflation.

The May Orange Juice continues to fall back in Friday’s trade. We expect this contract to trade down to the 1.10 area, possibly within the next 5 days.

The May Lumber – also falling back. We would expect the May Lumber to test 260, also within the next 5 days.

Good crack in the May Beans. We had been consistently selling the May Beans throughout the week on our standing orders at 9.97, covering on 10-20 cent dips. We covered the last of our short Beans on Friday on our standing order at 9.74. Look for lower prices in the Beans.

Corn still holding the 3.80 area. We expect however that will be given up in the coming week’s trade and are looking for a test in the Corn down to the 3.60 level.

The May Wheat – although able to hold a $5 close, we were sellers at 5.07 and covered half of our position at 5.02. We think recent rallies in the Wheat are overdone and the Wheat has another 20 cents to drop.

May Silver -- acting sloppy relative to the Gold. We are consistently selling the May Silver now on moves to 16.62 or better, covering on 10 cent dips. We think the May Silver can give up as much as 30 cents in the coming week’s trade.

April Platinum – also sloppy and unable to establish a close back above 1120. We think this contract’s coming down for a hard test of 1100.

The June Palladium – also giving up 800 during the week and 799.90 sell stops hit midweek. We were able to take $10 out in Thursday session. Look to sell the Palladium on any moves back to 800.

May Copper – forging ahead on a short squeeze. We were consistently selling the Copper at progressively higher highs throughout, covering on 2 cent dips. Our standing order at 2.6750 was filled again in Friday’s trade. We are still carrying the position.

We had warned of lower prices coming in the Coffee and Cocoa. Indeed you saw Coffee give up the 1.30 support area in Friday’s trade. We had been consistently shorting the Coffee throughout the week on moves to 1.34 or better, covering on 2-3 cent dips.  We think the Coffee has lower to go. May Cocoa -- also giving up the 2860 area. We have been consistently shorting the Cocoa throughout the week on moves below 2900, covering on $20-30 dips. Still short a lot of May Cocoa from 2868 and have a cover order in at 2768.

May Cotton –we were consistently selling on moves back to 61.50 throughout the week, covering on penny dips for a close on Friday. Expect the Cotton to give up the 60 cent support area in the coming week’s trade.


 

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