Equities & Bonds Both Move North; One’s Got To Be Wrong

Written by Al Martin Monday, 22 December 2014 00:15

 (12-21-14) In late week action the Spoos started coming off the Oil. We continue to see the March Long Bonds higher. We were buyers again on our standing orders at 1.4304 in Thursday’s overnight action.  We were able to sell the Bonds on our standing order at 1.4416 in late Friday trade, as we saw the Spoos had a nonsensical upside reaction to Yellen Speak. Yet Bonds also continue to move north. One has to be wrong. We think as usual it is the Spoos that are again overbought. Although we were long the Spoos we got out of our long positions at our standing orders at 2073 late Friday and sold them away at 2074. Even though next week has a seasonal propensity to be higher for equities, we still think the Spoos are rich and are prepared to hold a short position at current levels. We also are looking to continue to buy the Bonds on any dips back to the 1.4324 area.

Read more: Equities & Bonds Both Move North; One’s Got To Be Wrong

 

Record Trading Profits Continue as Global Deflationary Pressures Build

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 14 December 2014 23:36

(12-14-14) We bought the March Long Bond contract on our standing order off the dip Thursday at 143.16, our standing sell order at 145.16 filled in late Friday action. We continue to trade the Bonds from the long side, as long bond rate globally continues to indicate building deflationary pressures.

The Jan. Crude Oil contract – we of course continue to trade from the short side. We are now taking out an average of $2-3 a day. We had sold the Oil again at 59.50 covering at 58.50 in Friday’s session, selling off the lift at 58.75, covering at 57.75. We are short the Oil again off the late bounce, now short at 58.06. We will be able to take another dollar out of the trade in Monday’s session. However it is entirely possible that technical bounce is coming as Oil is now reaching its 20 year inflation-adjusted moving average of $56.24.

Read more: Record Trading Profits Continue as Global Deflationary Pressures Build

 

Friday’s Better Than Expected Unemployment Numbers Create New Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Monday, 08 December 2014 00:10

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(12-7-14) We sold the March Long Bonds on our 141.24 stop which was hit immediately after the better than expected unemployment numbers were announced. We were filled in fast market conditions at 141.18 which we covered on our standing order at 141.04, wherein we also reversed and were sellers at 141.16 -- all trades that we did on our advisory line in real time at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.

Also Spoos initially shell-shocked by the larger numbers, a reaction we have seen before. We bought in the Spoos at 2071.50 and we had a sell order at 2077.50 and were subsequently filled later in the session.  Also hit were our standing sell stops at 1199.90 in the Feb. Gold contract. We were filled at 1197.40 and were ultimately covered on our standing order at 1189.90 by session end.

The March Sugar – we came in short again at the 15.20 level, yet again taking 15 ticks out of the contract.  In line with our previous week’s missive, we continue to short the Sugar on moves to 15.20 or better, covering on 15-20 tick dips.

The Jan. Juice continues to consolidate in the 1.46-1.48 area. We continue to sell the Juice on rallies up to 1.48 or better, covering on 1-1/2 cent dips.

The Jan. Lumber also moved up on short covering in reaction to the stronger data in Friday’s session. We are now short the Lumber at 338.50 and currently have a cover order in at 330.50.

The Jan. Beans -- our 10.1025 buy stops were hit, selling m.o.c. wherein we were filled at 35, allowing us to take some 26 cents out of the trade. We now think the Beans are overbought at current levels and should be shorted on any continuation rally in Sunday night’s session.

Feb. Silver fell down in line with expectation. We had repeatedly sold the Silver on our standing order at 16.42, covering at 16.32 down to 16.27. We continue to like selling the Feb. Silver on moves to 16.42 or better.

We had warned of lower prices coming in the Jan. Platinum contract. We were continuously selling the contract throughout the week on our standing order at 1240 which we were filled on three times, including Thursday’s overnight session, taking $5-$10 scalps. Our last cover order at 1220 was also hit in Friday’s session. We are now short again the Platinum from 1222 and would be looking for a test down at 1202 to cover.

The Feb. Palladium contract also fell back. We were consistent sellers throughout the week as we have been in the last 10 days on our standing orders at 803, covering on dips to 796, a trade that we got off 5 times. We continue to like that trade.

The Feb. Copper also tried to recover in Friday’s session, sluggish action above 2.90, however we are still looking to short the Copper again on moves back to 2.92 or better.

We had warned of lower median prices coming in the March Coffee contract. We continue to use that 1.85 area as a pivot. We now think however that the Coffee will begin to establish closes under 1.80 and that Coffee should now be sold on moves back to the 1.83 area.

Cocoa remains overbought at current levels due to year-end shilling. The March Cocoa however should be sold on moves up to 2890 and covered on $20-40 dips.

March Cotton – having a hard time sustaining rallies above 60 cents in line with our previous week’s recommendation. We continue to sell the Cotton on moves up to 60.40 or better, covering on ½ to 1 cent dips. We continue to like that trade.

 

A Short Seller’s Paradise

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 30 November 2014 22:16

 (11-30-14)  In Thursday’s holiday action and Friday’s half-session, we saw the Oil get broken on OPEC’s inability to agree on any production cut. This took the rest of the boards lower. We were short the Gold, still from 1197, which we were able to cover at 1167. Also our 74.30 short in the Oil -- we finally covered at 66.30. We would expect some carry-forward momentum to the downside on the re-open Sunday night followed likely by some short-covering rallies.

Read more: A Short Seller’s Paradise

 

Mario Draghi Euro Jawboning Roils Markets

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 November 2014 22:09

 (11-23-14) In Thursday’s overnight session we saw the scheduled Draghi-speak occur when once again Mario the Magician was able to roil markets by jaw-boning the Euro down still further for a test of its most recent lows at 1.2375. We think the Euros are now a buy and that the test is now completed in that Draghi did not come up with anything concrete – just another round of jawboning which created long-side opportunities in the bonds and in the metals. We feel that the metals will now be a short, coming into the next week’s trade.

Read more: Mario Draghi Euro Jawboning Roils Markets

 

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