Watch Out for “Syrian Fear Bid” Reversal
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 01 September 2013 23:56
(9-1-13) With no action on Syria over the weekend as had been previously anticipated and action looking to be several weeks away, we would expect some reversal in so-called Syrian Fear Bid trade as occurred throughout last week. Accordingly we expect that the Sep. Long Bond contract could back off. We were sellers again at 133.07 after having been long in Thursday and Friday’s action. We expect however that Sunday night we will see prices soften under 132.24, possibly down to 132.16, allowing for a quarter point trade.
Bonds Acting Better as Spoos Remain Under Pressur
Written by Al Martin Monday, 26 August 2013 00:06
(8-25-13) We saw a continuing good lift off the recent lows in the Sep. Long Bond contract, as the 30-year cash bonds got turned back from the 3.93% yield handle, We saw substantial buying in the cash 30s, when yields rose above 3.90%, giving traders some idea where demand is in the instruments. Bonds have now had more than a 2-handle lift off of recent lows. We would look to potentially short the Bonds on moves above 132.08.
Bonds Oversold, Commodities Overbought
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 18 August 2013 22:45
(8-18-13) After having been short the Bonds Thursday from our 132.08 sell orders which we covered Friday on our standing orders at 131.08, we bought the Bonds in again at 130.30 and are long from that level and will be looking for a bounce back to the 131.16 area to get out.
Sep. Dollar Index continues to consolidate in the 8120-40
area. However we continue to look for the prices to move north, as we expect
that the upside action in the Euro is now done.
Action in Treasuries Leaves Egg on the Faces of Bond Bears… Again
Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 August 2013 00:45
(8-11-13) Contrary to the proselytizations of the Bond
Bears, we continue to trade the Sep. Long Bonds from the long side on dips.
Once again we were buyers on the close Thursday at 134.07. We sold on our
standing sell order at 134.15 in Friday’s session, taking a quarter point out
of the contract. With the Euros continuing to move higher, the action in the
Bonds is befuddling the Bond Bears.
Record Level of Overvaluation Confounds Bears
Written by Al Martin Monday, 05 August 2013 14:40
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Weekly Market Trading Recommendations
(8-4-13) We saw the Spoos finally move to break the 1700 barrier in Friday’s trade. We were sellers on our standing orders at 1703.50 and would expect the Spoos to back off for a 5-handle trade in Sunday’s overnight session.
The Sep. Long Bond contract – good rally on 32.10 eight lot buy order at fill in Thursday night’s trade. We were sellers on our standing orders at 133.24. We also sold the Bonds again on our standing order at 133.25.We would expect the Bonds to back off for a test of the 133.09 area in Sunday night’s trade.
Good back-off in the Sep. Dollar index – the Dollar Index now locked in the 81.30 - 82.30 range. We expect however this range will be broken as we suspect the Euros are going to start marching south again.
The Sep. Oil contract – good short covering with those who were not out on a test of 103.00 and getting squeezed out on the retest up at 107. Oil is once again overbought. We are looking to short the Oil on any moves back above 107.00.
Dec. Gold contract – we had sold the contract on the break of the 1308 in Thursday overnight session. We also sold again on our 1299.90 stops, covering both on the test of the 1283 support area. Of course the unemployment numbers Friday morning brought short covering action into the Gold. We are shorting again on the close at 1312.
The Aug. Sugar contract – coming down once again off recent tests up in the 16.95 area. We would expect Sugar to work lower throughout the week.
Sep. Orange Juice – also moving lower. We had shorted again at 1.4605 and would be looking to cover on a test of the 1.40 area.
Sep. Lumber – we also expect the Lumber to continue to move south as it doid last week. We do not think that 300 will hold.
Feature trade of the week was the Nov. Bean contract which we had warned was severely overvalued at current levels. Beans, now having broken under $12, with global Bean crop expected to reach record levels, we think the Beans can work down for a test of the 11.60 area in the coming week’s trade.
Also we continue to carry our short Dec. Corn positions and will be watching the 4.60 area for any support
The Sep. Silver continues to get backed off on rallies to 20.00. Due to the weakness of the Silver relative to the Gold, we continue to look at 20.00 – 20.20 as a shorting zone.
The Sep. Copper contract – once again turned back on a test of the 3.19 area. With Copper severely overbought once again, we would expect the Copper to work lower.
In line with our last week’s predictions, the Sep. Coffee contract can come down to establish a new low in Thursday night’s trade in the 1.15 area before short covering came into Friday’s session . We think the Coffee is again a short at current levels.
The Sep. Cocoa contract – we continue to short the contract on rallies to 2304 or better covering on $10-20 dips. We think the 2300 area is now the new prime shorting zone.
Dec. cCtton continues to get turned back on rallies back to 85.00. We continue to be sellers of the Dec. Cotton at 85.50 or better.
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