End of Week 'Uncle Vlad' Trade Continues to Work

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 27 April 2014 21:14



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(4-27-14) Thursday night we had bought the June Long Bonds, bought the June Gold, gotten short the June Spoos in anticipation of the new "Uncle Vlad" generated Friday trade, where we see Gold and Bonds advance and Spoos decline, ahead of the weekend in anticipation of an over-the-weekend Ukrainian blow-up. When that does not occur, you reverse the position on Sunday night as tensions ease once again.

Accordingly we were able to purchase the June Long Bonds at 134.00. We have a standing sell order at 135.03, also technically a place where the Bonds have been turned back, the very same trade we have done twice before.

We were also buyers of the June Gold at 1390.60 and were able to sell it on our standing order at 1290.60 in Friday’s session. We had sold the Spoos away at 76.50 in late Thursday trade and covered on our standing order at 56.50 in Friday’s day session action.

Assuming there is no fresh blow-up in the Ukrainian situation over the weekend, we would be looking now to get short the Gold, short the Bonds and long the Spoos in Sunday night’s trade.

June Long Bonds went out 134.17 in Friday’s trade  After we saw good selling in the 135.00 – 135.04 area, that selling was generated from people like us who had gotten long Thursday in anticipation of the run-up in prices on Friday. Also technical resistance at 135.04 capped Friday’s action.

The June Oil -- we also got short on our 101.99 sell stops in Thursday trade. We carried and were able to take a dollar and a half out of the contract in Friday’s trade. Oil still looks lower.

June Gold – run-up in Friday’s session being capped at the 1304 area, as CLPs (Colored Lights People, aka Unsophisticated Investors) came in once again  to buy the Gold back above 1300. We see this action repeatedly, when the CLPs don’t know when to get out, simply getting stopped out, when the Gold moves down under 1295, as it will likely do in Monday’s session, if there is no fresh news over the weekend.

We bought the May Sugar on the Thursday close at 17.00. We had a standing sell order at 17.23. We were out in Friday’s session. Sugar is simply bouncing off of technical short covering generated at 17.00 in Thursday’s session. Fundamentals remain as bearish as they have ever been in the Sugar. We continue to look to sell rallies now back to 17.50 or better.

May Juice – we sold again on our standing order at 1.6560 in Wednesday’s trade. Our cover order at 1.620 was hit in Friday’s session, allowing us to take 3-1/2 cents out of the contract. As we stated in our previous two weeks’ missives, we continue like selling the Juice at 1.65 or better and covering on 3 cent dips.

May Lumber – we had sold once again midweek at 335.60. We were able to take $4 out on the Thursday overnight lows. Lumber is back into that 335 or better shortable zone.

Beans – now being turned back at 15.00. We were sellers on the failure at 14.9850 in Friday’s trade. More sellers now around in the Beans with inventory replenishment now beginning from Argentine crop. We think the Beans will work lower.

Good short covering action in the July Corn. We were buyers of the Corn, as we have consistently been, on our 5.0025 buy stops. That trade was good for 12 cents in Friday’s trade. Note that trade has been consistently good for an average of 2-8 cents as CLPs come in and start buying the Corn again above $5, then put sell stops in at 4.98 and get stopped out every time.

The July Wheat – our 7.0025 buy stops hit once again, selling m.o.c. Trade good for 7-1/2 cents -- another trade that has been consistently good, as the CLPs continue to buy the Wheat above $7, getting consistently stopped out at 6.9450 or lower. Note the gap down when the Wheat gets right below 6.95, generated by Unwashed sell-stop action.

July Cotton – we sold the Cotton again on our standing order at 93.25 in Wednesday’s trade. We were able to take a half of a penny out of it Thursday. We shorted Friday again on our same standing order at 93.25. We will attempt to stretch the trade Monday to get ¾ of a cent if possible.

July Cocoa – we continue to sell now on moves back to 3000. However we think the Cocoa is done for now and the opportunity to sell above 3000 has come to an end. We now like selling the Cocoa at 2980 or better.

Great trade action in the May Coffee continues. We were short the May Coffee from our standing orders at 2.14. We covered m.o.c. Friday at 2.0475. Coffee is now becoming a major money maker both ways above $2, simply getting long on your 2.0025 buy stops. Trade is good consistently for 2-12 cents. Now looking to short on moves above 2.10.

Better action in the May Copper, as the Copper action got above 3.07. We had been consistently shorting the Copper at 3.06. Our 3.0705 buy stops hit to get long. We were able to take 5 cents out by the close Friday. We think however Copper now overdone at current levels.

May Silver continues to act sloppy relative to the action in the Gold. We see that action in both Thursday and Friday. Sellers continue to be showing at 19.75 or better in the Silver.

July Platinum picked up in Friday’s session, as the Platinum and Wheat have also been part of the Friday Uncle Vlad equation. We think however that the July Platinum will come back down for a test of 1400 in early week trade.


Lessening of 'Fear Bid' Trade Creates New Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Monday, 21 April 2014 02:09

(4-20-14)  We saw the June Long Bond contract back off in Thursday’s session on word of a bogus agreement involving the United States and Russia to de-escalate the Ukrainian situation. We think this agreement will fall apart in the next 3 or 4 days. We had bought the Bonds in on our standing order at 133.22 in Thursday's trade. We currently have a standing sell order in at 134.22.

Read more: Lessening of 'Fear Bid' Trade Creates New Opportunities


Spoo Short Trade Likely Done For Now; Continue to Trade Bonds on the Long Side

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 13 April 2014 23:23

 (4-13-14) Our favorite trade for the coming week – short the June Euros. We shorted the Euros on our standing order at 1.39 we believe the Euros are coming back down for a test of the 1.37 area.

Read more: Spoo Short Trade Likely Done For Now; Continue to Trade Bonds on the Long Side


Weakening Data Points to Continued Shorting Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 06 April 2014 23:33

(4-6-14) We saw the June Long Bond rally in Thursday’s trade unable to maintain that rally on Friday, despite seemingly good unemployment numbers. We continue to trade the June Long Bond from the long side. We had twice bought the Bonds in at 131.30 taking ½ and 1 point respectively out in Thursday and Friday’s session. We continue to like the Bonds from the long side on dips.

Read more: Weakening Data Points to Continued Shorting Opportunities


Late Week Back-off in Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity, Whilst Gold Continues to Sink

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 30 March 2014 23:20

(3-30-14) On Friday we saw a round of profit-taking in the June Long Bond contract. Our 133.31 sell stop was hit, leaving us short from 133.29, which we covered m.o.c., allowing us to take half a point out of the contract back down. However we are still looking to trade the contract from the long side with weak Chinese data expected over the weekend. We would look for the Bonds to recover in Sunday night’s trade.

Read more: Late Week Back-off in Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity, Whilst Gold Continues to Sink


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