Equities Rally, Bonds Back Off in Anticipation that Peaches ‘N’ Cream Trucks Will Arrive Before the Deadline
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 13 October 2013 21:50
(10-13-13) We saw sharp spikes in the spoos in Thursday and Friday’s trade, which we refused to trade on the long side. We are short the spoos again from the close at 1699.50 in Friday’s session. If nothing concrete is done over this weekend, spoos will move lower on Monday.
Bonds – also under pressure Friday for the same reasoning. However Bonds too will rally in Monday’s session if the Senate is unable to produce any concrete results.
The Dec. Dollar Index continues to hold the 80.00 level. We are now beginning to see rallies in the Euros turned back. We continue to short the Euros and did so in Thursday’s session on our standing order at 1.3575 and were able to take 40 ticks out of the trade in Friday’s session. We continue to look to short both the Euros and the Pounds on rallies.
Dec. Gold saw continuing liquidation in late week action
based on the concept that the Peaches ‘n’ Cream trucks were coming in Washington. We were
short the Gold off our 1299 stop in Friday’s action. Gold broke the 1282 support
area and traded down to the 1265 area. We expect that if nothing concrete is
arrived at over the weekend that the Gold will rally back to test the 1292
Washington Uncertainties Create New Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 06 October 2013 22:57
(10-6-13) Last week in the December Long Bond contract we
were twice filled on our standing orders, selling eight Bonds at 133.24,
covering at 133.00, now the fifth time we have been filled on that standing
contingent order. However we believe as the October 17 drop date grows closer the
Bonds will eventually come under pressure. Bonds, we think, remain a sell on
First Week of New Quarter Presents Fresh Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 September 2013 22:49
(9-29-13) We continue to trade the Dec. Long Bonds from the long side on dips. Although the contract is now being turned back at the 133.20 area, with our expectation that the S&Ps will move lower in Monday’s trade, we would expect the Dec. Long Bond contract to once again mount a rally effort to 133.20,
We are currently short the Dec. spoos at 1692. We’re looking for a test of the 1675 area after which we would expect a modest bounce.
Fed Sugar-High to Continue to Taper
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 September 2013 21:41
(9-22-13) We were buyers once again in Thursday’s session of
the Dec. Long Bond contract on our standing order at 131.02.We were able to
sell the contracts on the close Friday at 131.20. We continue to believe that
Bonds to be a buy on dips, with the Fed action of no “taper” for now,
continuing to be supportive of Treasury Long Bonds.
Coming Week’s Trade Replete with Shortable Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 16 September 2013 18:06
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(9-16-13) Last week’s action in the December Long Bond contract, created by a series of the best Long Bond auctions that the US Treasury has had in years, again creates fresh trading opportunities on the long side. We were consistently buying the Dec. Long Bonds on dips down to 128.28 in mid-week trade. We accumulated a 32-lot position which we sold on our standing order at 129.28 in Friday’s trade action. Bonds have now twice been turned back from the 130 area. However we think the Bonds will have further to go depending on Fed taper action in the coming week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Dec. Dollar contract is also largely dependent on coming week’s Fed action. We continue to short the Euros on moves above 1.33, covering on dips to 1.3270. We also continue to short the British Pounds on moves above 1.5820, also covering on dips back to 1.5785.
The Oct. Oil contract also moved higher last week in line with our expectation. We do not think the Oil will get back to recent highs above 110, unless something changes in the Syrian situation. We think rallies back to 108.50 are now shortable.
We were short the December Gold in late week action. The Gold came down to test the 1307 area before late short covering brought the Gold back failure to break 1300.We think the December Gold contract at 1325 or better is the best shorting opportunity of the coming week’s trade.
The October Sugar contract fell back in late week action in line with our previous week’s prediction. We told you the current shill in the Sugar would begin to run out of steam in this week’s trade. We were consistently selling the Sugar at 17.30. We have now covered, taking 20 ticks out of the contract. However we feel the Sugar will fall back below 17.00 in the coming week’s trade.
Nov. Juice – we had been consistently selling in the 1.39 area covering on 4-6 cent dips. We were once again short the Juice at 1.40. We believe that the Juice is very much weather-related to central Caribbean storms, the effects of which we think are being overblown.
The Nov. Lumber contract squeezed shorts in Friday’s action, ourselves included. However we sold again limit bid close. We think the Nov. Lumber is extremely overbought at current levels.
Last week’s double USDA crop reports presented prime shorting opportunities in the Nov. Bean contracts. We continue to sell on the cap at 14.00 which is the current price in last week’s trade, ultimately allowing us to take an aggregate total of $1 out of the Nov. Bean contract. We continue to look at that 14.00 area as a shorting zone.
Although Dec. Silver did not perform as well as the Gold thanks to the drag on it by the sloppy action in the Copper, we nonetheless believe that the Dec. Silver is a short at 22.30 or better.
The Dec. Copper contract, which we had warned of severe overvaluation fell back below 10 cents in last week’s trade. Although the 3.20 support level is being held for now, we think that support level will give way.
Dec. Coffee continues to want to trade around the 1.20 area. However the Coffee has been unable to advance back to 1.2150, nor should it be given current Coffee fundamentals. We continue to short the contract on moves up to 1.2050 or better, covering on penny dips.
The Dec. Cocoa contract -- subject to 4th quarter supply/ demand fundamentals which are invariably bullish. We believe however that moves above 2600 is overdone,
Dec. Cotton continues to languish. Although rally efforts now underway after the hold of 82.50, we would note that the Cotton has been a bit unable to get above 85 cents. If Cotton continues to be unable to get above 85 cents, we would establish a fresh short position.
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