Friday’s Euro Rally Prompts Short Covering Across the Boards

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 March 2015 23:05

(3-22-15) Friday’s rally in the Euro back to Wednesday’s highs, wherein we had first shorted the June Euros on our 1.0873 standing order, ultimately covering at 1.0597 in late Thursday trade. We were hit again on our one standing order at 1.0873 and are now short the June Euros once again. However Euro action prompted short covering rallies, particularly in the most heavily shorted complex – Copper, Silver, FCOJ, Cocoa, etc.

Read more: Friday’s Euro Rally Prompts Short Covering Across the Boards

 

Falling European Interest Rates Create Shorting Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 March 2015 22:29

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 (3-15-15) The March Long Bond – we continue to trade from the long side as yields on European sovereign bonds continue to plummet, making our 30-year Bonds ever more attractive. We had bought the Bonds again at 145.08 in Friday trade, selling them at 145.24 on the close. We think that recent selling now in the US Treasury Bonds is done and it’s time to start trading them from the long side again.

The April Oil which we had been consistently trading on rallies – we shorted again as the contract came under $49 on our 48.99 sell stop. We were able to cover the contract on our standing order at 44.96 in Friday’s trade, taking $4 out on the session. Although Oil held a $45 close, we think that it’s coming down for a test of the 44.45 recent low, possibly as early as Monday’s trade.

April Gold continues to fall back now in a 1150 - 1165 trading range. We were consistently selling the Gold throughout the week on moves to 1163, covering on $10 dips. We continue to like that trade and we believe Gold will give up the 1150 support area in the coming week’s trade.

We had warned of further declines coming in May Sugar. Indeed the 13.00 support level give way nicely in Friday’s trade. We had sold the Sugar m. o. c. at 13.21 and had a 12.71 cover order in, which was filled in Friday’s trade, taking a half a penny out of the Sugar. All the Soft and Tropical commodities are falling as well as the industrial metals complex signaling increasing global deflation.

The May Orange Juice continues to fall back in Friday’s trade. We expect this contract to trade down to the 1.10 area, possibly within the next 5 days.

The May Lumber – also falling back. We would expect the May Lumber to test 260, also within the next 5 days.

Good crack in the May Beans. We had been consistently selling the May Beans throughout the week on our standing orders at 9.97, covering on 10-20 cent dips. We covered the last of our short Beans on Friday on our standing order at 9.74. Look for lower prices in the Beans.

Corn still holding the 3.80 area. We expect however that will be given up in the coming week’s trade and are looking for a test in the Corn down to the 3.60 level.

The May Wheat – although able to hold a $5 close, we were sellers at 5.07 and covered half of our position at 5.02. We think recent rallies in the Wheat are overdone and the Wheat has another 20 cents to drop.

May Silver -- acting sloppy relative to the Gold. We are consistently selling the May Silver now on moves to 16.62 or better, covering on 10 cent dips. We think the May Silver can give up as much as 30 cents in the coming week’s trade.

April Platinum – also sloppy and unable to establish a close back above 1120. We think this contract’s coming down for a hard test of 1100.

The June Palladium – also giving up 800 during the week and 799.90 sell stops hit midweek. We were able to take $10 out in Thursday session. Look to sell the Palladium on any moves back to 800.

May Copper – forging ahead on a short squeeze. We were consistently selling the Copper at progressively higher highs throughout, covering on 2 cent dips. Our standing order at 2.6750 was filled again in Friday’s trade. We are still carrying the position.

We had warned of lower prices coming in the Coffee and Cocoa. Indeed you saw Coffee give up the 1.30 support area in Friday’s trade. We had been consistently shorting the Coffee throughout the week on moves to 1.34 or better, covering on 2-3 cent dips.  We think the Coffee has lower to go. May Cocoa -- also giving up the 2860 area. We have been consistently shorting the Cocoa throughout the week on moves below 2900, covering on $20-30 dips. Still short a lot of May Cocoa from 2868 and have a cover order in at 2768.

May Cotton –we were consistently selling on moves back to 61.50 throughout the week, covering on penny dips for a close on Friday. Expect the Cotton to give up the 60 cent support area in the coming week’s trade.


 

Friday’s Better Than Expected Unemployment Report Roils Markets

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 March 2015 23:12

(3-8-15) We saw the March Long Bond contract come down hard in Friday’s trade on the sharply better than expected unemployment report. Indeed all commodities moved lower on the assumption that Friday’s report would make it more likely that the Fed will move to increase rates in June rather than September as is now believed.

We had shorted the Bonds off our 144.23 sell stop and were able to take 1-1/4 out on Friday’s close. We had bought the Bonds at 143.04 -- our last standing order down in the March Bonds in that they had fallen more than 2 whole points. We think the selling in the Bonds has been overdone.

The April Oil – also coming down again, once again unable to sustain moves above $51. We had been consistently shorting the Oil throughout the week on rallies to 51-51.50, covering on $2 dips. We continue to look to short the Oil on moves back to 51.


 The April Gold contract -- also broken hard in Friday’s trade. The contract had been slowly giving up ground all week We had sold the contract on our 1197 sell stop in Friday’s trade and were able to take $30 out of the contract on the close. We think also the selling in the Gold overdone and would be looking for a bounce back to the 1180 area for fresh shorting opportunities.

Read more: Friday’s Better Than Expected Unemployment Report Roils Markets

 

Bonds Continue to Move North as US Dollar Rally Stutters

Written by Al Martin Monday, 02 March 2015 00:45

 (3-1-15) We continue to trade the March Long Bonds from the long side on dips.  We had bought the Bonds Friday mid-session at 146.15. We’re still hanging on to them. We had warned on our Thursday night conference call that the March Bonds would trade up to 147.00 or better in Friday’s day session. Bonds went out 147.02. We are still hanging on to our longs and we are looking to be a seller at 147.07

The March Dollar contract continues to hold recent rallies above 95.00 We expect the Euro to begin to give way as it did last week back under 1.13. We are still looking for a retest of the 1.1030 recent lows in the Euros. 

We had warned that the April Oil contract would start to trade under $50. We have been consistently shorting the contract at 50.90 or better throughout the week. Indeed the Oil did come back down for an intraday test of that 48.40 level in Friday’s trade, establishing a close again under 49.50.  We expect the Oil to come back down to reality and continue to move lower for a retest of the 47.00 area in the coming week’s trade.

Read more: Bonds Continue to Move North as US Dollar Rally Stutters

 

Fast-Moving Geo-Political Events Continue to Drive Markets

Written by Al Martin Monday, 23 February 2015 00:04

(2-22-15) The continuing uncertainty in the Greek and Russo-Ukrainian situation continue to create volatility but within defined ranges across all commodity futures. We continue to trade the March Long Bonds from the long side, now having a standing buy order at 143.30 which we were filled 4 times in last week’s trade. Each time we were able to take 1 point out of the trade. We have been consistently shorting the Bonds on moves up to 145.04 or better, taking 1 point on the ensuing dips. We continue to like this range in that Bonds continue to be cheap at current levels.

The Gold, as we had promised in last week’s missive, fell back in the previous week’s trade. Gold – consistently being a short at 1220 or better, covering on the dips back to 1205. We continue to like the idea of getting long the Gold on moves above 1205, getting short the Gold on moves back to 1220.

Oil continued to fall back in line with our previous week’s prediction, the expiring March contract having fallen below $49 in Thursday’s trade We traded the March contracts right to the last day Friday, covering our final position on the close at 50.34. We now will be looking to short the April Oil on moves back to 51.50 or better, as we think the rally above $50 is now coming to an end in the Oil.


Read more: Fast-Moving Geo-Political Events Continue to Drive Markets

 

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