Bonds Fall Back in Late Week Action As We Had Warned You Bonds Had Become Overbought
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 07 June 2015 22:29
(6-7-15) The June Long Bond contract which we had recommended shorting just above 153 as we did, fell back in Friday’s session. We covered our shorts which we were away at 153.08 on our standing cover order at 151.08. Bonds got some help down from a seemingly stronger than expected monthly unemployment report. However sub-components of the report would suggest that the numbers were not as strong as first appeared. Bonds although reaching a knee-jerk low at 150.19, wherein we got long the Bonds on our standing orders at 150.24 after having covered our shorts. Still long the Bonds. We expect the Bonds will hold around this 151 level and begin to rebuild last week’s gains.
Markets Continue to Fall Back as Correction Takes Hold
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 31 May 2015 21:42
(5-31-15) Our final trade in the June Long Bond contract in Friday’s session -- selling the Bonds at 157.08, covering at 156.16, was filled. We would be looking to buy the Bonds again on dips down to 156. We are looking to be short sellers on moves to 157.08 or better. Bonds are now fully recovered and are fully valued in our opinion at current levels,
Range-Bound Action Continues as Liquidity Shrinks
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 24 May 2015 23:05
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(5-24-15) Record profits seen in June Long Bond contract, as it continues to swing in 1-point ranges every day between the same places Friday, giving up 3 1-point trades again between 154.08 and 153.08. Expect range-bound action to continue until fresh news flows emerge
June Oil – we continue to short the Oil on moves above $60, covering on dips down to 59.00. Continue to short the oil on moves above $60.
June Gold wants to move lower but it’s being supported at the 1200 level for now, although we would expect 1200 to give way in the coming week’s trade with a move back down into the 1185 area.
July Sugar continues to move lower, now more than 1 cent off recent highs. We continue to expect Sugar to test 12.00 in the near term.
We shorted July Juice again on our standing orders at 1.1860 in Friday’s session. We would be looking to cover on a 5 cent dip.
We also shorted the July Lumber contract on our standing order at 273.60 in Friday’s session after 2 days of limit up last week. We think the Lumber is now overextended.
Continuing to short the July Beans on moves to 9.40 or better, covering on 10-15 cent dips. We continue to like that trade as we believe the test coming at 9.20 in the Beans will not be held.
We had warned that the July Corn would come back down for a test of 3.60 in last week’s missive. Indeed in Friday’s action we saw that test held. We expect however the Corn will come down further to 3.50 in the coming week’s trade.
July Wheat began once again giving up recent moves to 5.30 where it is unable to advance.We are still short the Wheat at 5.26, looking to cover at 5.06 in the coming week’s trade.
July Silver – sticky above 17.00. Look to short the contract on moves to 17.30 or better, covering on 20-30 cent dips. We would however expect the 17.00 level to give way in the coming week’s trade.
July Platinum – still shortable above 1170 for a move down to 1130 to cover—a move that we expect will happen in the coming week’s trade.
We had been warning of overvaluation in the July Copper. We saw the Copper correct in this week’s trade. We were short from 2.86 and were able to cover on our standing order at 2.80 in Friday’s action. Although 2.80 being held, we expect that too will give way.
We had also warned of overvaluation in the July Coffee above 1.40. We were short the Coffee from 1.43 earlier in the week covering on our standing order at 1.27 in Friday’s session. Coffee has now had its back broken, looking for a test down to 1.20.
July Cocoa continues to be sticky in the 3150 area. Cocoa is the only tropical commodity yet to break, but we would expect the Cocoa to break back down for a test of 3000.
July Cotton – continuing to move irregularly lower in line with our previous week’s prediction. Although 63.00 is holding for now, we would expect the Cotton to come back down for a test of 61.50 in the coming week’s trade.
Bonds Soar as Bunds Stabilize
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 17 May 2015 23:33
(5-17-15) The June Long Bond contract which we continue to trade on the long side on dips, as we had recommended in our previous week’s missive, continue to move higher throughout the week letting a 3 point gain on Friday only in 16 sessions, since the Long Bond contract first came on the board in 1977 as a 3 point or better 1 day gain had been had. We would look Sunday night for the Bonds to back down for a retest of 155 before buying them. However Bonds still have further to go and we expect the Bonds ultimately to move up to 157 to retest the contract highs.
Bonds Come Roaring Back… We Told You They Would!
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 10 May 2015 18:25
(5-10-15) In late week trade, Bonds did indeed come roaring back. We were buying the June Long Bonds at 153.50 to beat the band --as we recommended you do the same. We got out of the last of our Bonds on our standing sell orders at 156 in Friday’s session. Bonds remain a buy-on-dip trade that has not changed. We would now be looking buying Bonds again on moves back down to 155.08.
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