Range-Bound Action Continues as Liquidity Shrinks
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 24 May 2015 23:05
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(5-24-15) Record profits seen in June Long Bond contract, as it continues to swing in 1-point ranges every day between the same places Friday, giving up 3 1-point trades again between 154.08 and 153.08. Expect range-bound action to continue until fresh news flows emerge
June Oil – we continue to short the Oil on moves above $60, covering on dips down to 59.00. Continue to short the oil on moves above $60.
June Gold wants to move lower but it’s being supported at the 1200 level for now, although we would expect 1200 to give way in the coming week’s trade with a move back down into the 1185 area.
July Sugar continues to move lower, now more than 1 cent off recent highs. We continue to expect Sugar to test 12.00 in the near term.
We shorted July Juice again on our standing orders at 1.1860 in Friday’s session. We would be looking to cover on a 5 cent dip.
We also shorted the July Lumber contract on our standing order at 273.60 in Friday’s session after 2 days of limit up last week. We think the Lumber is now overextended.
Continuing to short the July Beans on moves to 9.40 or better, covering on 10-15 cent dips. We continue to like that trade as we believe the test coming at 9.20 in the Beans will not be held.
We had warned that the July Corn would come back down for a test of 3.60 in last week’s missive. Indeed in Friday’s action we saw that test held. We expect however the Corn will come down further to 3.50 in the coming week’s trade.
July Wheat began once again giving up recent moves to 5.30 where it is unable to advance.We are still short the Wheat at 5.26, looking to cover at 5.06 in the coming week’s trade.
July Silver – sticky above 17.00. Look to short the contract on moves to 17.30 or better, covering on 20-30 cent dips. We would however expect the 17.00 level to give way in the coming week’s trade.
July Platinum – still shortable above 1170 for a move down to 1130 to cover—a move that we expect will happen in the coming week’s trade.
We had been warning of overvaluation in the July Copper. We saw the Copper correct in this week’s trade. We were short from 2.86 and were able to cover on our standing order at 2.80 in Friday’s action. Although 2.80 being held, we expect that too will give way.
We had also warned of overvaluation in the July Coffee above 1.40. We were short the Coffee from 1.43 earlier in the week covering on our standing order at 1.27 in Friday’s session. Coffee has now had its back broken, looking for a test down to 1.20.
July Cocoa continues to be sticky in the 3150 area. Cocoa is the only tropical commodity yet to break, but we would expect the Cocoa to break back down for a test of 3000.
July Cotton – continuing to move irregularly lower in line with our previous week’s prediction. Although 63.00 is holding for now, we would expect the Cotton to come back down for a test of 61.50 in the coming week’s trade.
Bonds Soar as Bunds Stabilize
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 17 May 2015 23:33
(5-17-15) The June Long Bond contract which we continue to trade on the long side on dips, as we had recommended in our previous week’s missive, continue to move higher throughout the week letting a 3 point gain on Friday only in 16 sessions, since the Long Bond contract first came on the board in 1977 as a 3 point or better 1 day gain had been had. We would look Sunday night for the Bonds to back down for a retest of 155 before buying them. However Bonds still have further to go and we expect the Bonds ultimately to move up to 157 to retest the contract highs.
Bonds Come Roaring Back… We Told You They Would!
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 10 May 2015 18:25
(5-10-15) In late week trade, Bonds did indeed come roaring back. We were buying the June Long Bonds at 153.50 to beat the band --as we recommended you do the same. We got out of the last of our Bonds on our standing sell orders at 156 in Friday’s session. Bonds remain a buy-on-dip trade that has not changed. We would now be looking buying Bonds again on moves back down to 155.08.
Record Trading Opportunities as Global Liquidity Continues To Shrink
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 03 May 2015 22:04
(5-3-15) Last week we saw yet another record volatile session in the June Long Bond contract with 2-point intra-day swings in 4 out of 5 sessions. We are continuously shorting the June Bonds on moves up to 160, covering on a retest down to 159. We’ve been trading the Bonds from the long side on our standing buy order at 158.24, which was filled 3 times in last week’s trade, allowing us to take out one whole point on the long side in each trade, as liquidity continues to shrink in the US Treasury markets to what is now dangerous proportions.
Good Two-Way Scalping Action in the Long Bonds and the Spoos
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 26 April 2015 23:47
(4-26-15) The June Long Bond contract – we continue to buy as we did throughout the week on dips down to the 161.10 area. We were consistently selling on moves overnight up to the 161.28 area wherein we would be short again for the retest. Good two-way range-bound action in the Bonds seen throughout the week principally between 161.08 – 161.28. We finally got the break out above 162 in Friday’s trade. Our 162.01 buy stops were hit. We were able to sell the contract on the close at 162.23. We would be looking Monday night to get short any extension in the 162.30 area.
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