From Friday's Bogus Rally (Fresh Shorting Opportunities) to Surplus Planet
Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 December 2011 05:20
(12-11-11) In an interesting note, it would appear that 2012 will be a redux of 1975, wherein we will see all soft and tropical commodities on the planet, as well as industrial metals, move into surpluses.
On Friday we saw equity markets rally, based on yet another failed Grand Euro-Confab. Global equity markets are now responding to rallies on European failures, which are now translated to being a success simply because the Europeans prevented everything from falling apart.
For another week.
a consequence, we saw the March Treasury Bonds, which had held up well in
Thursday's trade, finally come down. Our 141.31 sell-stops were hit in Friday’s
trade. We were filled at 141.29, covering on our standing order at 141.05.
We had actually bought the Bonds back in again and are now net long at 140.30, as we would expect the Bonds to recover in early week trade.
From Early Shill Effort to Grand Euro Confab
Written by Al Martin Monday, 05 December 2011 20:12
(12-5-11) Based on Friday’s action and the 8:30 unemployment number, we would expect the equities to move higher in early Sunday night trade with US Treasuries moving lower. We will stop trading the December Long Bond contract on Monday and begin trading the March contract as the December contract grows increasingly illiquid.
Risk Perceptions Have Changed
Written by Al Martin Monday, 28 November 2011 03:35
In late week semi-holiday action, we saw the price of US Treasury Bonds come under pressure, due
principally to the failure of last week's German Bund auction.
Indeed we began,
for the first time in two weeks, trading the December Long Bond contract from
the short side, wherein we were consistent short sellers on rallies above
The trade in Bonds has now changed as global confidence in Bonds has
been lost. US
Treasuries are also falling prey due to this global loss of Bond confidence.
For now we would start to trade the Bonds from the short side on rallies up to 44.5 or better.
The Dec. Dollar contract continues to rise, being fed by the lack of confidence in Gold and Bonds. We have blown out 79.30 - 40 resistance area in the December contract. We would expect the 80.30 - 40 next up resistance zone to be hit in the coming week’s trade.
Risk vs Safety: The Commodity Future Trades of the Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 21 November 2011 00:26
(11-20-11) In Friday’s trade, we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract once again trade above 143. We were consistent buyers above 143, taking quarter point scalps. We bought in the Bonds late on our standing order at 142.21 and remain long from that level.
Markets Take Another Line of European Hope-aine (Rhymes with Cocaine)
Written by Al Martin Monday, 14 November 2011 22:14
(11-13-11) Friday’s Hope-aine Rally creates fresh shorting opportunities.
We saw Friday once again the Dec. Long Bond contract backed off as global equity and commodity markets rallied, based on hope of the Berlusconi resignation that the new Italian government being formed will actually get something done. That yet remains to be seen.
We continue to trade the Dec. Long Bonds from the long side on back-offs. The Bonds actually had a good close late Friday. Given the extent of equity market rallies, we are looking to buy the Bonds Sunday on any retest of 140.02.
The Dec. Dollar contract was also coming down from recent resistance highs at 78.35. We would look to buy the contract on any dip back under 77.00.
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