Risk-On Trade Continues To Build, As Planet Drowns in Hopium Pabulum

Written by Al Martin Monday, 10 September 2012 04:40

(9-9-12)  We saw a sharp back-off in the Dec. Long Bond contracts. We will now be trading the Decs, Both Sep. and Dec contracts are now 1-3/4 in Friday's session. However with Draghi-Speak now out of the way and no fresh Fed-Speak until later this week, we think there is a window for the Bonds to recover. We will be looking to buy the Dec. Bonds on any continued fall down to 149.00 in Sunday night's trade.

 The Sep. Dollar contract was hit with the 8260 and 8160 support levels giving way. We had shorted the Sep. Euro contract on our standing orders at 1.2815 in Friday’s trade. We think the Euro is now running out of gas. The trade may be good up to 1.2850 -- but we doubt any more.

The Oct. Oil contract, although dragged higher in Friday’s session by good action in the rest of the boards, continues to be a short on rally trade. We would be looking to sell the contract on any move above 96.50 in Sunday's overnight trade.

Read more: Risk-On Trade Continues To Build, As Planet Drowns in Hopium Pabulum

 

Spoos and Bonds Continue To Tell Two Different Stories

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 02 September 2012 21:56

(9-2-12) We saw the Sep. Long Bonds have a substantial rally in Friday’s action. We had put out an emergency buy recommendation at 149.12 early Friday morning where we had bought in sixteen Bonds. We were sellers at 150.24 on the close With a strong US Bond calendar last week, supply pressure having been relieved in late Thursday trade, Bonds continue to tell a different story than do equities with incessant injections of central bank pabulum into the global Hopium clouds. We continue to trade the Bonds from the long side.

Read more: Spoos and Bonds Continue To Tell Two Different Stories

 

Volatility Continues to Increase; Watch Out for Draghi-Bernanke Speak at Jackson Hole in Coming Week's Trade

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 26 August 2012 21:47

(8-26-12) The lift off the bottom in the Sep. Long Bond contract continued in Friday’s trade with the contract now trading back above 148, more than a three whole point lift off the bottom of only eight sessions ago. We still believe the contract has more to go on the upside and are still trading the contract from the long side, as we have been doing for the last three months. We would expect the Draghi-Bernanke comments to provide a further lift for the Bonds and further pressure on the equities.

Read more: Volatility Continues to Increase; Watch Out for Draghi-Bernanke Speak at Jackson Hole in Coming Week's Trade

 

Late Week Bond Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 19 August 2012 21:08

(8-19-12)  In Thursday’s market action, we had put out a flash buying recommendation in the September Long Bond contract at 145.08, wherein we had bought 24 lots in late Thursday action. We were sellers on our standing orders at 146.00 in Friday’s session, as the Bonds rallied to 146.08 before being turned back. We had been warning that the Bonds were dramatically oversold. We continue to look to scalp the Bonds from the long side on any retest of the 145.16 area.

Read more: Late Week Bond Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

 

Breaks in the Hopium Clouds Begin to Appear

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:49

(8-12-12) In Thursday’s trade we bought the Sep. Long Bond contract on our standing order at 148.04, selling on our standing order at 148.28 in Friday’s session, taking ¾ of a point out of the trade in two days. We still feel the Bonds are cheap and with breaks in the Hopium clouds now coming, we think the Bonds remain a long trade under 149.00.

The Sep. Oil continued to consolidate around $93 in Thursday and Friday’s trade. We were consistent sellers of the contract on moves up to 93.80, covering on dips down to 93.00. We believe the Oil will begin to back down in the coming week’s trade and we expect that 92.00 will be tested early week.

Read more: Breaks in the Hopium Clouds Begin to Appear

 

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