Friday's Tepid Rally Continues into Monday's Session

Written by Al Martin Tuesday, 20 November 2012 01:42

(11-19-12) After seven consecutive red days in the equities, Friday's tepid rally effort generated mostly by buy-side activity in Friday's option expiry will likely engender sufficient short-covering in Monday's session to inure another green/ up day. However because of the larger forces pushing the markets lower, we would think a substantial rally off of recent lows is not in the cards. Thus we would look for only a temporary long side trade.

Read more: Friday's Tepid Rally Continues into Monday's Session

 

Post-Election Markets Create This Week’s Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 November 2012 04:30

(11-11-12) We had been trading the Dec. Long Bonds from the long side throughout the week, as we had recommended in our previous week’s missive.  However we are now short at 152.00 coming out of Friday’s session. We believe the Bonds have run their course for now with the Dec. contract having approached its all-time highs. We think it is time for post-election reversal in the Bonds.

The Dec. Dollar contract -- now trading above 81.00. We are still looking at the 81.30 level in the near term, but we believe the Euro is going to hold the 1.2690 area and would be looking to short the Dollar contract on any move up to 81.30.

The Dec. Crude Oil continues to move higher in late week session. However we now feel the Oil is overbought above 86.00, a place that we had consistently sold the Oil in the past and would look for any further move above 86.50 as a fresh shorting opportunity.

Read more: Post-Election Markets Create This Week’s Opportunities

 

Insider Intelligence Subscribers Report Record End-of-Week Profits in Their Short Positions

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 04 November 2012 23:37

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(11-4-12) On the better than expected monthly employment numbers we saw Friday morning, our standing order in the Dec. Long Bonds at 147.18 was filled. We were sellers at 148.18 on the close, taking a whole point out of the contract. We had warned that recent weakness in the Bonds was a buying opportunity, and we would expect the Bonds to move higher early week in continuing pre-election jitters.

Also the Dec. Dollar index moved up smartly Friday as the Euros fell back. We had been consistently shorting the Dec. Euro contract throughout the week on moves above 1.2930. We were short once again coming into Friday’s session, taking 100 ticks out of the Euros. Of course we had been warning about this for several weeks of the near-term overbought condition in the Euros, and we still believe the Euros are headed back to 127.50.

Good break in the Dec. Oil contract. We had warned of near-term overvaluation in the contract in our last week’s missive – a $2 break in Friday’s trade. We were short the Oil from 86.13 from our overnight orders, covering at 84.81 on the close. We still believe the Oil has lower to go.

Read more: Insider Intelligence Subscribers Report Record End-of-Week Profits in Their Short Positions

 

Treasury Bonds Rally Late Week As Global Equity Markets Turn Lower

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 28 October 2012 21:55

(10-28-12) Good end of week rally in the Dec. Long Bonds. We continue to trade the Bonds from the long side. We were buyers on Thursday's close at 146.28, selling on Friday’s close at 148.02. We think the recent period of weakness in Treasuries is now over as fresh Euro-Asian fears begin to once again build. We will be looking for a continuation rally in the Dec. Long Bonds up to the 148.20 area.

Read more: Treasury Bonds Rally Late Week As Global Equity Markets Turn Lower

 

The End of Week Crack We Had Been Warning of Comes… But Has It Gone?

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 21 October 2012 21:52

(10-21-12)  We had warned of a severe oversold condition in the Dec. Long Bond contract. We had been consistently buying the contract on our standing orders at 146.06. Indeed in Thursday overnight trade, we bought the Bonds again at 146.06, selling them on Friday's close at 147.18. We had warned of a severe oversold condition in the Treasury Bonds that began to be corrected in Friday's trade. However Bonds are still cheap. If the Spoos are able to continue their downward slide in Monday action, which we suspect they will, then we would expect the Bonds to pick up another point in Monday's trade.

Read more: The End of Week Crack We Had Been Warning of Comes… But Has It Gone?

 

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