Our Predictions of a Late Week Sell-Off Come To Pass
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 July 2012 20:06
(7-8-12) We were buyers once again in Thursday’s overnight trade of the September Long Bonds. We continue to look at the 147.24-148.00 as the preferred buying zone with the 149.24-150.00 area as being the preferred shorting zone. This trade has now persisted for 7 days, although we now feel that the Bonds will work above 150.00 in the coming week’s trade
Supposed German Concessions Prompt Largest Short-Covering Rally in Three Years
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 01 July 2012 22:27
(7-1-12) The boards lifted sharply across the planet in Friday’s action on supposed German concessions, which are actually meaningless, leaving the boards in the most technically overbought condition since March of 2007.
Although a further continuation rally is possible in Monday’s session combined with the typical first day of the new quarter institutional buying, we are looking to short on any further extension of the rally on Monday.
We have already established light short positions on the close in the September S&P contract. We also have light short positions in the September Coffee contract, established on the close and also in the August Crude Oil contract.
In Friday’s session, the Sep. Long Bond contract came down albeit grudgingly – pounded down as bids flooded into the equity and commodity markets. However with a loss in the Sep. Long Bond contract of a point and a half, we think the Bonds acted well relative to the action in the equities and commodity complexes. We would be looking to buy the Sep. contracts on any further move down into the 147.26 area, which is where we have consistently been buying these contracts on dips over the last ten days.
Watch for Fear Bid to Re-enter Markets in Coming Week’s Trade
Written by Al Martin Monday, 25 June 2012 02:51
(6-24-12) In end of week trade, we saw the Sep. Long Bond contract come down once again to test the 147.20 area, where we have been consistently buying the Bonds. We would expect the Bonds to rally early week with failure of Euro mini-summit late week combined with no Chinese central bank action over the weekend. We would expect markets to begin falling again Sunday night.
Commodity Futures Trading; Greek Elections Roil Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 18 June 2012 03:38
(6-17-12) Markets responded last Friday with both Spoos and Bonds once again moving in the same direction, i.e. higher, as anticipation that the Greek pro-bailout parties would be victorious in the weekend elections began to prevail. Markets are now substantially overbought relative to the reality of the election outcomes.
Spanish Bailout Offers: Will It Be Enough?
Written by Al Martin Monday, 11 June 2012 01:20
(6-10-12) In late Friday action, we saw the Sep. Long Bonds come down, as well as a late rally in the Spoos, particularly the after-market session, on rumors of potential Spanish bank bailout offers by the ECB over the weekend. Also in the mix was over the weekend Chinese data expected to be weak, after China sent the signal Thursday morning with a surprise quarter point rate cut. Indeed the Chinese did come out with it on Saturday and it was weaker than expected. The ECB offers to Spanish banks over the weekend did not meet all of Spain’s needs. We think that the run-up in the Spoos late Friday was not justified. We sold the Spoos right on the close at 1322. Also we had bought the Bonds at 4816.
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