Friday’s Better Than Expected Unemployment Report Roils Markets
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 March 2015 23:12
(3-8-15) We saw the March Long Bond contract come down hard in Friday’s trade on the sharply better than expected unemployment report. Indeed all commodities moved lower on the assumption that Friday’s report would make it more likely that the Fed will move to increase rates in June rather than September as is now believed.
We had shorted the Bonds off our 144.23 sell stop and were able to take 1-1/4 out on Friday’s close. We had bought the Bonds at 143.04 -- our last standing order down in the March Bonds in that they had fallen more than 2 whole points. We think the selling in the Bonds has been overdone.
The April Oil – also coming down again, once again unable to sustain moves above $51. We had been consistently shorting the Oil throughout the week on rallies to 51-51.50, covering on $2 dips. We continue to look to short the Oil on moves back to 51.
The April Gold contract -- also broken hard in Friday’s trade. The contract had been slowly giving up ground all week We had sold the contract on our 1197 sell stop in Friday’s trade and were able to take $30 out of the contract on the close. We think also the selling in the Gold overdone and would be looking for a bounce back to the 1180 area for fresh shorting opportunities.
Bonds Continue to Move North as US Dollar Rally Stutters
Written by Al Martin Monday, 02 March 2015 00:45
(3-1-15) We continue to trade the March Long Bonds from the long side on dips. We had bought the Bonds Friday mid-session at 146.15. We’re still hanging on to them. We had warned on our Thursday night conference call that the March Bonds would trade up to 147.00 or better in Friday’s day session. Bonds went out 147.02. We are still hanging on to our longs and we are looking to be a seller at 147.07
The March Dollar contract continues to hold recent rallies above 95.00 We expect the Euro to begin to give way as it did last week back under 1.13. We are still looking for a retest of the 1.1030 recent lows in the Euros.
We had warned that the April Oil contract would start to
trade under $50. We have been consistently shorting the contract at 50.90 or
better throughout the week. Indeed the Oil did come back down for an intraday
test of that 48.40 level in Friday’s trade, establishing a close again under
49.50. We expect the Oil to come back
down to reality and continue to move lower for a retest of the 47.00 area in
the coming week’s trade.
Fast-Moving Geo-Political Events Continue to Drive Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 23 February 2015 00:04
(2-22-15) The continuing uncertainty in the Greek and Russo-Ukrainian situation continue to create volatility but within defined ranges across all commodity futures. We continue to trade the March Long Bonds from the long side, now having a standing buy order at 143.30 which we were filled 4 times in last week’s trade. Each time we were able to take 1 point out of the trade. We have been consistently shorting the Bonds on moves up to 145.04 or better, taking 1 point on the ensuing dips. We continue to like this range in that Bonds continue to be cheap at current levels.
The Gold, as we had promised in last week’s missive, fell back in the previous week’s trade. Gold – consistently being a short at 1220 or better, covering on the dips back to 1205. We continue to like the idea of getting long the Gold on moves above 1205, getting short the Gold on moves back to 1220.
Oil continued to fall back in line with our previous week’s
prediction, the expiring March contract having fallen below $49 in Thursday’s
trade We traded the March contracts right to the last day Friday, covering our
final position on the close at 50.34. We now will be looking to short the April
Oil on moves back to 51.50 or better, as we think the rally above $50 is now
coming to an end in the Oil.
European/ Greek Turmoil Creates This Week’s Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 February 2015 23:19
(2-15-15) We continue to trade the March Long Bonds from the long side. We again bought the Bonds at 145.20 on the close Friday. We continue to make the trade from 145.16 up to 146.16 as the Bonds remain range-bound in the greater 145.00 – 147.00 range. We continue to think the Bonds are cheap relative to news flows.
Uncertainty To Continue Throughout This Week’s Trading
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 February 2015 23:00
(2-8-15) As we suspected, no deal was worked out over the
weekend between Merkel, Hollande and Uncle Vlad. Supposedly a summit is coming
in Minsk on
Wednesday. Even that is uncertain. It is likely therefore that the
Russo-Ukrainian situation will represent a continuing uncertainty for the
markets throughout the week.
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