Risk Perceptions Have Changed
Written by Al Martin Monday, 28 November 2011 03:35
In late week semi-holiday action, we saw the price of US Treasury Bonds come under pressure, due
principally to the failure of last week's German Bund auction.
Indeed we began,
for the first time in two weeks, trading the December Long Bond contract from
the short side, wherein we were consistent short sellers on rallies above
The trade in Bonds has now changed as global confidence in Bonds has
been lost. US
Treasuries are also falling prey due to this global loss of Bond confidence.
For now we would start to trade the Bonds from the short side on rallies up to 44.5 or better.
The Dec. Dollar contract continues to rise, being fed by the lack of confidence in Gold and Bonds. We have blown out 79.30 - 40 resistance area in the December contract. We would expect the 80.30 - 40 next up resistance zone to be hit in the coming week’s trade.
Risk vs Safety: The Commodity Future Trades of the Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 21 November 2011 00:26
(11-20-11) In Friday’s trade, we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract once again trade above 143. We were consistent buyers above 143, taking quarter point scalps. We bought in the Bonds late on our standing order at 142.21 and remain long from that level.
Markets Take Another Line of European Hope-aine (Rhymes with Cocaine)
Written by Al Martin Monday, 14 November 2011 22:14
(11-13-11) Friday’s Hope-aine Rally creates fresh shorting opportunities.
We saw Friday once again the Dec. Long Bond contract backed off as global equity and commodity markets rallied, based on hope of the Berlusconi resignation that the new Italian government being formed will actually get something done. That yet remains to be seen.
We continue to trade the Dec. Long Bonds from the long side on back-offs. The Bonds actually had a good close late Friday. Given the extent of equity market rallies, we are looking to buy the Bonds Sunday on any retest of 140.02.
The Dec. Dollar contract was also coming down from recent resistance highs at 78.35. We would look to buy the contract on any dip back under 77.00.
Friday’s Unemployment Number Generates Fresh Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 07 November 2011 00:34
(11-6-11) In a knee-jerk reaction to Friday's generally
better-than-expected unemployment number, we saw a quick, sharp sell-off in the
December Long Bond contract, with our 140.00 standing buy order to be filled.
We were sellers of the contract at 141.00 in late session.
The ability of the Bond contract to hold on to its gains would suggest that we are not going to experience another "fantasy rally" in markets in the coming week's trade, based on the failure of the G-20 summit and would be looking to buy the contract on a dip to 140.08 in Sunday night's trade.
The Dec. Dollar contract continues to bounce along the lows. We have seen consistent buying coming into the contract on dips below 77.00 and would continue to look at dips down to 76.50 as fresh buying opportunities.
Relief Rally Sends Equity & Commodity Markets to Fresh Heights of Absurdity
Written by Al Martin Monday, 31 October 2011 01:32
(10-30-11) In late week action, we had bought the Dec. Long Bond contract on our standing orders at 135.16 in Thursday's overnight session. We were sellers at 136.16 in Friday's trade. The Bonds are now dramatically oversold at current levels and we would look for higher prices throughout the coming week.
The December Dollar Index, now coming down for another test of 75.00, is also sharply oversold. We would expect a Dollar bounce in the coming week's trade, as fears over the November 3 G-20 summit will begin to weigh on markets.
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