Friday’s Unemployment Number Generates Fresh Trading Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Monday, 07 November 2011 00:34

(11-6-11) In a knee-jerk reaction to Friday's generally better-than-expected unemployment number, we saw a quick, sharp sell-off in the December Long Bond contract, with our 140.00 standing buy order to be filled. We were sellers of the contract at 141.00 in late session.

The ability of the Bond contract to hold on to its gains would suggest that we are not going to experience another "fantasy rally" in markets in the coming week's trade, based on the failure of the G-20 summit and would be looking to buy the contract on a dip to 140.08 in Sunday night's trade.

The Dec. Dollar contract continues to bounce along the lows. We have seen consistent buying coming into the contract on dips below 77.00 and would continue to look at dips down to 76.50 as fresh buying opportunities.


Read more: Friday’s Unemployment Number Generates Fresh Trading Opportunities

 

Relief Rally Sends Equity & Commodity Markets to Fresh Heights of Absurdity

Written by Al Martin Monday, 31 October 2011 01:32

(10-30-11) In late week action, we had bought the Dec. Long Bond contract on our standing orders at 135.16 in Thursday's overnight session. We were sellers at 136.16 in Friday's trade. The Bonds are now dramatically oversold at current levels and we would look for higher prices throughout the coming week.

The December Dollar Index, now coming down for another test of 75.00, is also sharply oversold. We would expect a Dollar bounce in the coming week's trade, as fears over the November 3 G-20 summit will begin to weigh on markets.

Read more: Relief Rally Sends Equity & Commodity Markets to Fresh Heights of Absurdity

 

Weekend Failure of Latest Euro-Summit Means New Trading Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 October 2011 23:30

alt(10-23-11) In Friday’s action we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract hold up well, relative to the bogus rally in equities.

We were buyers of the Dec. Long Bonds at 138.08 on the close Friday. We would expect the Bonds to move up Sunday night, as markets react to the recent failure of the Euro-summit and the further uncertainty of kicking the Euro-can down the road. We would look to be sellers at the 139.00 level.

The Dec Dollar contract fell again on Friday, and we would look at the 76.50 area as a buying opportunity, as we are currently short the Dec. Euro contract at 1.3890.

Read more: Weekend Failure of Latest Euro-Summit Means New Trading Opportunities

 

Latest Euro Bailout Efforts Create ‘Wing & Prayer’ Rally

Written by Al Martin Monday, 17 October 2011 18:31

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(10-16-11) Despite a good 30-year auction in Thursday’s session, we saw the Long Bond contract come down Friday to once again test the 138.00 levels. We will continue to be buyers at 137.24, selling on rallies up to 138.16, until the market tells us otherwise.

 Also consistent Dollar selling throughout the week with the DXE contract now under 78.00. We think this contract will come down to test the 77.30 support level before bouncing.

Good lift late week in the Oil, as the fear bid diminishes. We were short sellers of the Oil at 87.35 on Friday’s close. Oil is simply being lifted by the ‘wing & the prayer’ rally.

 Good close in the Dec. Gold contract with the weekly close now above the 1660 – 1680 zone. The Gold looks higher early week, where we suspect the Gold will trade up for a test of 1690.


The March Sugar contract – dramatic rally as shorts who stayed too long were caught and flushed out. We had sold the Sugar at 2793 in Friday’s close. Sugar is once again dramatically over bought, relative to underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

 Nov. Juice contract – our 170.05 buy-stop was hit. We took 2 cents out of the contract on the close Friday. Juice above 170 flushed shorts out. We think the Juice is now a short at  current levels.

Nov. Lumber contract also moved back to establish a close above 220. We remain sellers at the 226 area.

 A small bounce in the Grains Friday after a bearish USDA report on Thursday. The Dec. Corn is still overbought by at least 50 cents. We like the Corn short and we like the Beans short at 12.70 or better looking to cover on a pullback to 12/58.

 Dec. Silver continued to lag, but dragged up in line with the Gold. We did establish a close above 32.00. We would expect the Silver to trade up to 32.50 in Sunday night’s trade.

 Dec. Copper also caught up in the hype with a 3.43 close. We were sellers at 3.43 on the close Friday. The Copper, Oil, and other industrial metals are overdone.

 Good action in the Dec. Coffee on Friday to snap back from recent declines. We look for a trade above 242.50 for fresh shorting positions.

 We sold the Cocoa again at 2670 in Friday’s intraday session, taking $15 out of it. Cocoa did establish a good close, but we suspect any rallies back to 2700 will be fresh shorting opportunities.

Dec. Cotton continues to languish in the 1.00 – 1.04 area.  We continue to be short sellers on any moves to 1.04.


 

End of Week Sale on US Treasuries

Written by Al Martin Monday, 10 October 2011 02:57

(10-9-11) The Dec. Long Bond contract was hit hard on the back of the 8:30 news Friday morning, trading down to 140.10. We were buyers at 140.16. We think the 6 point decline intra-week off the top has been overdone. We like the Bonds on the long side again at current levels.

Read more: End of Week Sale on US Treasuries

 

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