Euro Troubles Deflate Speculative Bubbles
Written by Al Martin Monday, 29 November 2010 02:53
(11-28-10) In Thursday night’s trade we saw another opportunity to get long the December Treasury Bond contract, which we did on our standing orders at 126.30. We were sellers at 127.14 in Friday’s trade, taking out a tasty ½ point profit on the trade. Bonds rallied further before coming back late. We continue to like the Bonds on the long side.
Global Speculative Bubbles Let Off More Steam – And Create More Profits
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 21 November 2010 21:38
(11-21-10) We put out an emergency buy recommendation Thursday night in the Dec. Long Bond contract. We bought in the contract at 125.24. We see the pullback low was only one tick lower. We were sellers at 127.08 in Friday’s session, taking 1-1/2 whole points out of the Bonds. We continue to trade the Bonds on the long side on dips.
Panic Selling Creates Millions for Short Sellers
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 14 November 2010 22:08
(11-14-10) In Friday’s trade, we see the pattern resuming, wherein the Treasury Bond contracts fell after US Treasury auctions. This is due to the new payment schedule, wherein dealers must now pay for US Treasury Bonds they purchase at auction midweek by the close of business Friday.
We bought the Dec. Long Bonds at 127.22 in Friday’s close, and we think they’re cheap at current levels. We warned that the December Dollar contract would likely move higher to retest its 13-day high at 78.53. We still think a retest of that high is likely.
The Dec. Gold, for which we issued an emergency shorting recommendation Thursday night at 1415, fell back sharply Friday in line with declines in all commodities, as both US and foreign exchanges move to increase margin cost in all commodity futures contracts. We would expect the declines in commodities to continue early week followed by a rebound.
The March Sugar contract saw outright panic liquidation by weak-handed longs, both in Thursday and Friday’s trade, falling an aggregate of 6.60 cents, losing fully 20% of the contract’s value, as thousands of margin calls forced out the Unwashed one and two lot longs. We were short the Sugar from Thursday night on, with all of our sell-stops filled down to 26.99. There were many millionaires created Thursday and Friday, who were short the sugar.
Cotton – The Biggest Commodity Shill on the Planet
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 07 November 2010 23:52
(11-7-10) Once again we saw the pattern of late week sell-offs in the Dec. Treasury Bond futures continue with Friday’s better unemployment number helping to foster declines. However this market is still a buy-on-dip market, and we would be looking to buy the Dec. Long Bonds again on any move back to 130.16.
The Dec. Dollar contract saw a good short-covering rally late week with the contract experiencing a series of lower lows and lower highs. Thus the down-trend is firmly intact, but watch out for a potentially short-term explosive short-covering rally which could propel this contract much higher.
Upcoming Elections & Quant-Ease… Expect Volatility to Peak Mid Week
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 31 October 2010 23:29
(10-31-10) In early week trade we saw the December long bond futures fall dramatically, prompting us to issue an emergency buying recommendation Wednesday at 129.00. We subsequently saw the bonds rally up to 131 and better in Friday’s trade. Indeed we sold our long position on our standing order at 131 in Friday’s mid-day session. Bonds got hit on Fed back pedaling on quant-ease. However the Bonds are now still cheap relative to economic fundamentals and continue to be a buy-on-dip trade, as we have suggested that they are.
The Dec. Dollar contract rallied up as high as 78.50 in intraday Wednesday trade, also on Fed back-pedaling on Quant-Ease, fell back in Thursday and Friday trade. However we do think that a second lift in the Dollar is coming and will likely occur as part of the “buy the rumor – sell the fact” trade on the pending Fed statement.
The Dec. Crude oil contract continues to be a sell on rally. We had been looking at 83.00 as a selling opportunity. We suggested 82.00 and higher in this week’s trade. Indeed in intraday and overnight trade, if you continuously shorted the Oil on rallies above 82.00, that was a money-making trade. Every time. We continue to believe that Oil prices will work lower in the coming week’s trade.
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