The "Non-Bubble" in the Bonds Bleeds Some Air
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 August 2010 20:18
(8-29-10) The September US Treasury Long Bond contract -- we had been consistently trading on the long side. In fact we had sold the remaining long positions on our standing orders at 135.23 Friday morning, when the Bonds were unable to advance despite friendly news flows which signaled that a decline was coming, as equity prices began to rally, despite bearish news flows for equities. We were stopped into the Bonds on our 134.31 sell-stop, being filled at 134.29, and covering at 133.29. We went long the Bonds again at 133.20 in late Friday action just before the close. The dramatic sell-off in the Bonds Friday has created a fresh buying opportunity at current levels.
Treasury Bonds Continue to Roar
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 August 2010 21:33
(8-22-10) Once again in overnight trade Friday, we were buyers of the Sep. Long Bond contract at133.16. Indeed the Bonds roared to a high of 135.07 in Friday's trade, creating the same short-selling opportunity that we had warned of in the previous Friday's trade, wherein said Bond contract fell back 1-1/4 points off the inter-session highs. We were short-sellers at 135, covering the trade at the end of the day at 134. We would expect the Bonds to begin to build upside momentum again in Sunday night's trade.
The Sep. Dollar contract continues to move higher, as the cash Dollar contract closed above 8300 for the first time in 28 sessions in Friday's trade. Look for the Dollar to move higher.
Record Trading Profits Seen In US Treasury Bonds
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 August 2010 20:54
(8-15-10) As our readers know, we have continuously been trading the Sep. Long Bond contract from the long side on dips. We were buyers of the contract in Thursday night's session at 131.04. We sold the contracts at 132.04 on Friday, taking one whole point, once again, out of the contract, as the retail sales numbers proved to be slightly disappointing and Fed action to depress interest rates continues to accelerate. We have not seen the highs yet in the Sep. Bond contract and would continue to trade them from the long side on dips.
Monthly Unemployment Report Leads to New Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 August 2010 20:40
(8-8-10) We had suggested that the Sep. Long Bond contract would trade up to 130 by the end of the week. Indeed we just missed our target by 6/32nds vs. Friday's intra-day high, up one whole point on the close. We were buyers of the Bonds at 127.26 in the overnight session, taking nearly one whole point out in Friday's day session. We continue to trade the Bonds from the long side.
Watch Out for Sunday Short Covering Rally in the Dollar on the Back of Weaker Chinese Mfg. Data
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 01 August 2010 21:32
FREE SAMPLE MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS FROM INSIDER INTELLIGENCE --
(8-1-10) July 2010 was the best month for traders since September '08.
All trading houses, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc., reported record trading profits in their proprietary operations during the month of July. We also find that the CBOT principal traders' comment sheet shows that floor locals and independent traders reported record profits, as did subscribers of Insider Intelligence. Com. This was based on our recommendation to continuously trade the Sep. Treasury Bonds from the long side on dips and to trade the August Gold contract from the short side on rallies.
These two factors alone led to record profits and indeed we find that our suggestion to trade the Bonds from the long side on dips continued to pay dividends on Thursday, wherein during night trade we once again were purchasers of the Sep. Long Bond at 126.10, the same place we purchased them six times before during the week. We were sellers of the Bonds at 128.10 in Friday's day session, taking out an enormous 64/32nds out of the contract.
Furthermore we continue to see a decline in the Dollar. Although we like trading Dollars on the long side, we nevertheless had a sell-stop at 81.99 midweek in the Sep. Dollar contract -- which was hit. We will now look at support in the Dollar contract at 81.60 for covering our current short positions.
The Sep. Crude Oil contract -- we had warned would continue to remain sticky to the upside and was not the "commodity du jour" that you wanted to be shorting consistently. There were good short scalps available throughout the week, in both Wednesday's and Thursday's day session, wherein we had sharp intra-day drops in the Oil. However the Oil has proven to be tricky for short sellers. We sold the contract at 78.90 on the close Friday and would expect the contract to come down 50 cents in Monday's session.
The August Gold contract, which we have shorted continuously under $1200, came down to establish a low at 1160 support, before prompting a short-covering rally.
However we now think that a short-covering rally in the Gold is done and would look to be selling the Gold on any continued lift-back to 1185.
The October Sugar contract -- we have seen continued shilling on perceived near-term tightness which is a complete fabrication. However you have to go with the trend. Our 19.01 buy stops were hit in Friday's trade. We were sellers at 19.51. You would note however that the contract has consistently failed to breach 20 cents. Thus we continue to have sell orders in the contract at 19.90.
The Sep. Orange Juice contract was supported by a lower Dollar all week. However it has been unable to make any real progress to the upside. We continue to have sell orders at 1.4750.
The Sep. Lumber contract also picked up finally late week on Dollar action. However the move up in the contract was tepid. We shorted the contract 2 weeks ago at 220 and covered at 200. We would now be looking to sell the Lumber on rallies back to 213.
The short-covering rally in Grains continued late week on perceived near-term supply tightness due to unusual hot weather conditions in European and Russian growing belts. However we must bear in mind that carry-forward inventories of Grains are at record levels and that despite perceived crop damage from current weather conditions in the 2010 new crop cycle, record global cereal grain production will still occur in a falling demand environment. For now the short squeeze is under way, and we will stay out of the way. However we did short the Sep. Wheat on the close at 6.6150 Friday and would be looking to sell the Dec. Corn on any further move up in Sunday night's trade.
The Sep Silver had a dramatic intra-day short-covering rally early Friday. We had advised readers to have buy-stops at 17.72, which were hit. We were sellers at 17.93, purchasing again on dips back to 17.80, taking 20 cents again out of the contract in the afternoon. However, we think the contract is once again rich at $18, and we continue to want to short the contract again in any retest of 18.20.
The Sep. Copper contract also experienced short-covering in Friday's session with the contract trading up to 3.32. We were buyers of the contract on our 3.2950 buy-stops and sellers at 3.3115. We are now looking to sell the contract on any test of 3.33.
The Sep. Coffee contract underwent a shocking short-covering rally in Thursday's session which carried into Friday's session. Our 1.7505 buy stops were hit, and we were sellers at 1.7720. We also shorted the contract at 1.770, covering on Friday's intra-day re-test at 1.7550. The move in the Coffee on perceived Brazilian frost damage is completely bogus. However we do not believe that the Coffee will be able to reach 1.80.
The Sep. Cocoa contract has become a "rigged market," due to the large European buyer which we have previously described. The contract did finally break up above 3000. We sold the contract short at 3003, on a standing order for 5 consecutive days, taking a cumulative $350 out of the contract. However we bought the contract on the breakout at 3026 earlier in the week. We were sellers at 3090 on the close Friday. Remember the Cocoa is now a completely manipulated contract, and we are now looking for a new top to be developed against which we can short.
The Dec. Cotton contract also finally picked up despite inordinately bearish fundamentals, simply on Dollar declines. We now have standing sell orders in the contract at 79.00.
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