Not Even Absurd Euro Machinations Can Save Markets!
Written by Al Martin Monday, 03 October 2011 01:10
(10-2-11) Once again we saw good rallies in the Dec. Long Bond contract in Friday’s session, wherein our 140.21 buy stops were hit. We were sellers at 142.24 on the close. We still expect the Bonds to work higher in the first week of October.
We had been warning that the DXE contract would rally up to resistance at 79.35. Indeed we saw that number hit in Friday’s trade and we expect this contract to move higher.
We had also been warning that the Nov. Crude Oil contract was overbought above $82. Indeed we were consistent sellers in Thursday and Friday trade on every move above $83. We saw a good collapse in the Oil late session. We are still a dollar off 10-day lows in the Oil in Friday’s session. We expect Oil to come down to $77.50.
Dec. Gold – we see continued good shorting in the Dec. Gold on moves above $1640. We continue to look at that $1640 area for fresh shorting opportunities.
Fed Commentary Roils Global Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 26 September 2011 02:26
(9-25-11) We saw the Dec. Long Bonds mount a stellar rally in last week’s session. We were buyers in Wednesday’s trade off our 143.01 buy stop. We did not start selling the Bonds until they got above 145, where we gradually unloaded our long positions up to par 146. We were short sellers at 146.04 in early Friday trade. We covered half of our position at 144.16 on Friday’s close. Bonds got dramatically overbought relative to Fed news flows and are now coming back down for a retest. However we suspect any move back under 144 would be a fresh buying opportunity in the Treasuries.
Latest Euro Machinations Roil Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 19 September 2011 15:46
(9-19-11) In Friday's session we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract get hit hard on the back of the latest Euro swap arrangements which pressured both US Dollars and Bonds. However we were buyers of the Bonds on our standing orders at 138.28 and were sellers late session taking nearly a point out of the contract. The Treasury Bonds are oversold at current levels and will trade back above 140 in the coming week's trade.
The pickup in the DXU contract in late session trade Friday will now likely continue with the Euro being overbought and artificially maintained. We expect the Dollar contract to come back. Speaking of the Euros, we were consistent short sellers of the Euros at 1.39 or better in Friday's trade, scalping on 50 point dips. We think the Euros trade back down to the 1.3750 area in early week trade.
You Think Last Week Was Volatile? Just Wait…
Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 September 2011 00:33
(9-11-11) Once again we were buyers of the Dec. Long Bond contract on the dip just below 140. We accumulated a ten-lot position at 139.31. We were sellers of the position on our standing order at 140.31 in Friday’s session. The Dec. Bonds are back at new contract highs. Expect the Bonds to continue to move higher.
Explosive upside action in the DXU’s. The contract is now trading up against resistance at 77.30. The next resistance is up at 78.30.
The Oct. Crude Oil contract – good shorting opportunity. We are still carrying our shorts from 90.12 in early Thursday trade, taking $3 out of the contract. Oil remains $10 overbought relative to economic fundamentals.
The Dec. Gold contract continues to offer superb scalping action. We took another $54 out of the contract in Friday’s trade. We see the trading zone at $1830-1860 still being where the majority of trades are. We expect however that the Gold will work higher early week and a new high will be established in the contract.
Dec. Silver continues to be the laggard in the complex, lagging the move up in Gold. We were consistent short sellers above 42.00 in early Friday action, taking more than 50 cents out of the contract by the close. The Trade du Jour continues to be "Long the Gold, Short the Silver" in the spreads.
German Supreme Court Vote & Italian Parliamentary Debate Will Decide the Fate of the European Union This Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 05 September 2011 00:15
(9-4-11) The Dec. Long Bond contract had a stellar move higher, off the back of Friday’s poor unemployment numbers. We see both the Sep. and the Dec. contracts now trading solidly above 140. We are looking to buy the Dec. contract again in Sunday night trade on any pullbacks to retest 140.00.
The Sep. Dollar contract – good close at 74.70 in Friday’s session. We were consistent short sellers of the EUU’s at 142.50 as the level failed to hold. Euro looks like it’s coming down for a test of the 1.41 area in early week trade.
The Oct. Oil contract also backed off in Friday’s trade. Our 87.99 and 86.99 stops were both hit. We covered the Oil on the test down at 85.80. Oil lifted a dollar off lows by the close, but definitely looks lower in early week action.
Dec. Gold, which we had warned would rally by week’s end, indeed had a good close at 1884.60. We would expect the 1900 level to be retested as early as Sunday’s overnight action – as the European situation continues to unravel.
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