Silver Decoupled From the Gold
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 May 2011 23:58
(5-22-11) We had put out an emergency recommendation Thursday night to buy the June Long Bond contracts at 124.28, the same place we had bought them. We were sellers at 124.28 in Friday’s lift, as end of week short covering came into the Bonds, while the rest of the boards flagged. We continued to trade the Bonds from long side.
Good short-covering action late week in the June DX Index, the Dollar Index back now to 70.80. We think the Index will move back to 75.80 next trade.
The June Crude Oil contract went off the board at 99.49. We had bought the contract at 98.32 earlier in the session, taking a dollar out of the contract before it went off the board. We think the Oil has lower to go.
Silver: $30 Is Ultimate Downside Target
Written by Al Martin Monday, 16 May 2011 02:50
(5-15-11) Last Thursday night we were once again buyers of the Bonds on the close at 123.26. We were sellers of the Bonds at 124.10 in Friday’s day session, taking a half point out of the contract, buying the Bonds either in the overnight session or early morning session, a trade that has now worked for 10 consecutive sessions, and we expect to work higher.
Commodity Bubble Continues to Unwind
Written by Al Martin Monday, 09 May 2011 02:08
(5-8-11) Those readers who have been trading the June Long Bond contract from the long side, as we’ve been suggesting for the last 3 weeks, continue to profit in last week’s trade. As the contract broke above its 123.05 March high, we issued an emergency flash to our professional traders, recommending the contract be bought. Indeed we bought in the contract at 123.06, and we were sellers of the contract Friday at 124.06. Despite supply coming next week, bond markets no longer seem to be frightened of the supply and continue to advance and should be traded on the long side, as long as 123.05 continues to hold.
June Dollar contract – we had been consistently warning of a short-covering rally. Indeed in last week’s trade, we saw the contract lift 200 ticks to establish a close above 7500. No fundamental change other than the short trade simply got too crowded and a short-covering led relief rally was necessary to correct this oversold condition.
The June Crude Oil contract, which we had shorted in Thursday’s trade at 112 we hung onto covering at 98.00 in Friday’s session, as the commodity bubble continues to unwind. We suspect this contract will come down for a retest of the 95.00 level early in the coming week.
June Gold continues to unwind. We were short sellers of the contract at 1538 in Thursday night session and have sold the contract down continuously, covering at 1497 in Friday’s trade. We think this contract comes back to 1450.
The Silver contract, which we had been consistently trading on the short side ever since 49.20 in the July contract -- we were short sellers in Friday morning trade, covering at 33.73. Friday short-covering action in the Silver sets up another shorting opportunity at 36.20 in Sunday night’s trade.
Gold & Silver Continue to Reside in La La Land
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 01 May 2011 22:37
(5-1-11) We continued to scalp the June US Treasury Long Bond contract from the long side in Friday’s trade. We were buyers of the contract at 122.01, selling it at 122.17 in late session, taking out yet another half a point from the contract on the long side. As financial pundits continue to pooh-pooh US Treasuries, the Treasuries continue to gain in value. We continue to trade them from the long side.
The June Dollar contract broke into yet another fresh 3-year low. We are looking to buy the contract at 73.00.
The June Crude Oil contract – we were buyers once again on our 113.01 buy stop Friday, as recent tops at the 113.50 area were breached on a closing basis, signaling higher Oil prices next week. For now, however, we would look to be short sellers on any move up to 114.50.
Coffee: Feature Trade of the Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 25 April 2011 01:20
(4-24-11) In Friday trade, we saw the June US Treasury Long Bond contract close marginally higher, but continues to be a buy-on-dip trade down to the 120.24 area, as we had suggested in last week’s missive. We continue to look to trade the Bonds on the long side.
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