Turbulent Week Marks Seminal Changes in Commodity Contracts
Written by Al Martin Monday, 07 February 2011 00:16
(2-6-11) The March Gold contract finally picked up late week, after a move above $1340 sparked technical buying. However we think this contract will be a short, if it is able to get back to 1360.
March Silver contract did trade back above $29 in Friday’s trade. However the Silver looked weak and will continue to respond to the Gold. Next spot up for selling -- 29.20 for a 10 cent scalp.
Japanese Credit Downgrades & Middle East Unrest Roil Global Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 31 January 2011 00:10
(1-30-11) Last week we saw continued liquidation in a variety of commodity complexes, especially the most economically sensitive ones. This included a fear bid coming into US Treasuries late week. Indeed we had bought the March Long Bond contract at 119.28 Friday morning, selling that contract at 121.16 in Friday afternoon session. Bonds were topped out once again at the 121.75 area and then backed off. Have no doubt Bonds will resume rallies as tensions in the Middle East continue to mount and the fear bid persists.
Joe Six Pack Silver Buyers Get Shellacked -- Again
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 January 2011 22:12
(1-23-11) We saw the March Long Bond contract get pummeled late week with good lifts Friday. We were buyers of the contract at 119.28 in Friday night trade, selling at 120.08, taking 3/8 of a point out of the contract. The sudden loss of confidence experienced in the US Treasuries, partly on Chinese comments regarding diminishment of US Bond holdings, we believe is nothing more than a blip in the road to higher Bond prices.
Oil Keeps Getting Shilled Up to $100 – Even Though It’s Not...
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 16 January 2011 22:34
(1-16-11) Last week we saw the Bond auctions lift late week as US Treasury Long Bond auctions got off well with the 3- and 10-year auctions rated as excellent and the 30-year auction rated as fair, sufficient to engineer a small relief rally effort in late Thursday’s trade. The Bonds continue to want to move higher. We expect 122.00 to be retested in the December Long Bond contract by the end of this week.
Everyone Wants Dollars, But Volatility Still Rules
Written by Al Martin Monday, 10 January 2011 02:42
(1-9-2011) Much to the chagrin of many of the Unwashed, we see continuing strength in the March Long Bond contract late week. Indeed we were buyers of this contract again in Wednesday’s trade at 119.20. We began to sell the contracts out at 121.00 in Friday’s trade. Despite a Dollar rally and continuing melt up in equities, we still see US Treasuries well-bid, although we suspect the Bonds will be vulnerable to a dip early next week as fresh Treasury supply comes to market. However the Treasury Bonds are exhibiting strength due to an ongoing fear bid.
The March Dollar contract, which we warned would breach recent highs, indeed touched those highs intra-day in Friday’s trade. With the Euro under pressure the euro would need to come down to 128.50 for the March Dollar contract to establish new highs. We expect this contract will breach 128.75 in the coming week’s trade. Everyone wants Dollars.
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