Weekend Failure of Latest Euro-Summit Means New Trading Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 October 2011 23:30

alt(10-23-11) In Friday’s action we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract hold up well, relative to the bogus rally in equities.

We were buyers of the Dec. Long Bonds at 138.08 on the close Friday. We would expect the Bonds to move up Sunday night, as markets react to the recent failure of the Euro-summit and the further uncertainty of kicking the Euro-can down the road. We would look to be sellers at the 139.00 level.

The Dec Dollar contract fell again on Friday, and we would look at the 76.50 area as a buying opportunity, as we are currently short the Dec. Euro contract at 1.3890.

Read more: Weekend Failure of Latest Euro-Summit Means New Trading Opportunities

 

Latest Euro Bailout Efforts Create ‘Wing & Prayer’ Rally

Written by Al Martin Monday, 17 October 2011 18:31

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(10-16-11) Despite a good 30-year auction in Thursday’s session, we saw the Long Bond contract come down Friday to once again test the 138.00 levels. We will continue to be buyers at 137.24, selling on rallies up to 138.16, until the market tells us otherwise.

 Also consistent Dollar selling throughout the week with the DXE contract now under 78.00. We think this contract will come down to test the 77.30 support level before bouncing.

Good lift late week in the Oil, as the fear bid diminishes. We were short sellers of the Oil at 87.35 on Friday’s close. Oil is simply being lifted by the ‘wing & the prayer’ rally.

 Good close in the Dec. Gold contract with the weekly close now above the 1660 – 1680 zone. The Gold looks higher early week, where we suspect the Gold will trade up for a test of 1690.


The March Sugar contract – dramatic rally as shorts who stayed too long were caught and flushed out. We had sold the Sugar at 2793 in Friday’s close. Sugar is once again dramatically over bought, relative to underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

 Nov. Juice contract – our 170.05 buy-stop was hit. We took 2 cents out of the contract on the close Friday. Juice above 170 flushed shorts out. We think the Juice is now a short at  current levels.

Nov. Lumber contract also moved back to establish a close above 220. We remain sellers at the 226 area.

 A small bounce in the Grains Friday after a bearish USDA report on Thursday. The Dec. Corn is still overbought by at least 50 cents. We like the Corn short and we like the Beans short at 12.70 or better looking to cover on a pullback to 12/58.

 Dec. Silver continued to lag, but dragged up in line with the Gold. We did establish a close above 32.00. We would expect the Silver to trade up to 32.50 in Sunday night’s trade.

 Dec. Copper also caught up in the hype with a 3.43 close. We were sellers at 3.43 on the close Friday. The Copper, Oil, and other industrial metals are overdone.

 Good action in the Dec. Coffee on Friday to snap back from recent declines. We look for a trade above 242.50 for fresh shorting positions.

 We sold the Cocoa again at 2670 in Friday’s intraday session, taking $15 out of it. Cocoa did establish a good close, but we suspect any rallies back to 2700 will be fresh shorting opportunities.

Dec. Cotton continues to languish in the 1.00 – 1.04 area.  We continue to be short sellers on any moves to 1.04.


 

End of Week Sale on US Treasuries

Written by Al Martin Monday, 10 October 2011 02:57

(10-9-11) The Dec. Long Bond contract was hit hard on the back of the 8:30 news Friday morning, trading down to 140.10. We were buyers at 140.16. We think the 6 point decline intra-week off the top has been overdone. We like the Bonds on the long side again at current levels.

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Not Even Absurd Euro Machinations Can Save Markets!

Written by Al Martin Monday, 03 October 2011 01:10

(10-2-11) Once again we saw good rallies in the Dec. Long Bond contract in Friday’s session, wherein our 140.21 buy stops were hit. We were sellers at 142.24 on the close. We still expect the Bonds to work higher in the first week of October.

We had been warning that the DXE contract would rally up to resistance at 79.35. Indeed we saw that number hit in Friday’s trade and we expect this contract to move higher.

We had also been warning that the Nov. Crude Oil contract was overbought above $82. Indeed we were consistent sellers in Thursday and Friday trade on every move above $83. We saw a good collapse in the Oil late session. We are still a dollar off 10-day lows in the Oil in Friday’s session. We expect Oil to come down to $77.50.

Dec. Gold – we see continued good shorting in the Dec. Gold on moves above $1640. We continue to look at that $1640 area for fresh shorting opportunities.

Read more: Not Even Absurd Euro Machinations Can Save Markets!

 

Fed Commentary Roils Global Markets

Written by Al Martin Monday, 26 September 2011 02:26

(9-25-11)  We saw the Dec. Long Bonds mount a stellar rally in last week’s session. We were buyers in Wednesday’s trade off our 143.01 buy stop. We did not start selling the Bonds until they got above 145, where we gradually unloaded our long positions up to par 146. We were short sellers at 146.04 in early Friday trade. We covered half of our position at 144.16 on Friday’s close. Bonds got dramatically overbought relative to Fed news flows and are now coming back down for a retest. However we suspect any move back under 144 would be a fresh buying opportunity in the Treasuries.

Read more: Fed Commentary Roils Global Markets

 

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