Treasury Bonds Predict Passage of Debt Limit Extension Bill

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 24 July 2011 22:27

alt(7-24-11) Once again we saw the Long Bonds rally in Friday’s trade. We were buyers on our standing order at125.04 early session, as readers would remember, the same place we bought the Bonds last week. We were sellers of the bonds on the close at 125.28, taking ¾ of a point out of the contract.

Read more: Treasury Bonds Predict Passage of Debt Limit Extension Bill


Debt Ceiling Limit Vote Sets Up Giant ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact’ Trade Possibility!

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 17 July 2011 22:23

(7-17-11)  In Friday's action, we were once again buyers of the Long Bonds on our standing order in overnight trade at 125.22. We sold on the close at 126. Bond auctions are now out of the way with light bond calendars, we think the Bonds continue to be a particularly good long-on-dip trade, in that we would expect the debt ceiling limit vote to go ahead prior to the Aug. 2 deadline. This is going to create a relief rally in the Bonds.

 The Sep. Dollar contract – we were sellers of our long position, as we had suggested, at 76.35, up once again for a test of resistance before pulling back. We think the Dollar will move higher and also have a relief rally on the debt ceiling limit trade.

Read more: Debt Ceiling Limit Vote Sets Up Giant ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact’ Trade Possibility!


We Told You To Trade the Bonds From the Long Side…

Written by Al Martin Monday, 11 July 2011 01:55



(7-10-11) We had put out an Emergency Flash Recommendation! on the close Thursday to buy the Sep. Long Bond contract which we had bought at 123.13.  We were sellers of the contract at 124.13 on our standing order in Friday’s trade. Although the contract continued to power higher from there, on the back of dismal employment numbers, don’t be fooled by the good action in the S&Ps. We were short sellers of the Sep. S&P contracts on the close Friday.

The Sep. Dollar contract which we have stayed long since our Thursday entry point at 74.71. We would look to be sellers on any continuation up to 75.71.

The Aug. Oil contract, which we had been consistently trading from the short side – we were short once again Friday morning on our standing order at 99.00, covering at 96.50 in late Friday trade. Oil is coming back down to reality and will reverse in an up-move.

Aug. Gold contract continues to benefit from the fear bid – but once again running into resistance in the $1542-46 area. We suspect however that the Gold contract may be able to move above resistance under our belief that equity markets will correct in this week’s trade.

The Oct. Sugar contract – great shorting opportunities, as the contract was turned back on the recent Fantasy Rally up to a test of 30.00. We had shorted the contract on our standing order of 29.85 in Friday’s session, taking 50 points out of the contract by the closer.

Sugar continues to be the MOST OVERBOUGHT commodity on the boards, relative to supply/ demand fundamentals.

The Sep. Orange Juice -- coming back to our 1.9250 preferred shorting zone. Indeed we went short on a retest of that level.

The Sep. Lumber contract rallied back off of the 254 area in Friday’s trade. We shorted the contract once again at 266 on the close.

The Grain contracts – a mixed bag, with some bidding in the Wheat in that early week selling in the Wheat was overdone. However we continue to look for lower prices in the Grains.

The July Silver contract – once again we would look to be sellers right at current levels. We sold the contract at $36.74 on the close Friday.

The Sep. Copper –we were consistent sellers in the 4.43-4.44 ar in Freaiday’s trade, taking 2-3 cent scalps. Copper is now DRAMATICALLY OVERBOUGHT given increasing new mine supply.

Sep. Coffee — once again great shorting action on the failure of 2.70 in Friday’s trade. We have been consistently short selling the Coffee on a test of the 2.69, once the 2.6750 area is cleared. We sold Coffee again at 2.69 in Friday’s session covering at 2.64 on our standing order in late day trade. We continue to look to sell the Coffee in the same zone.

We have been warning you of a crack coming in the Sep. Cocoa contract. Indeed that crack came Friday. We were sellers at 3204, as we had been sellers at 3104 and 3004 in the past. We took $150 out of the cocoa contract. We still believe Cocoa has lower to go.

Dec. Cotton – quiet session Friday. However look for tests of 1.16 for renewed shorting opportunities.

(PS)  We also have a teleconferencing trade advisory service available for fulltime professional traders. Just email virtualagency (at) yahoo com or text 866 317 1390 for more info...


Trading Recommendations

Written by Al Martin Monday, 04 July 2011 22:16

(7-4-11) Last week’s short-covering-led relief rally sets up for shorting opportunities in the coming week’s trade.

Further, in the S&P contracts, last week’s short covering and relief rally -- we would expect to get reversed in this week’s trade. We are short the SPUs at 1235.

After the ending of QE2-inspired sell-off in the Sep. Long Bond contract, we were buyers of the contracts at 122.18 in Friday’s close. We have a standing sell-order at 123.18, which we expect will be filled in early week trade.

Also the Sep. Dollar contract – we were buyers on the close Friday at 74.68. We would expect the contract to rally back to 75.00 in the coming week’s trade, as our short EUU position is now at 145.25. We expect to be able to cover at 144.00, as the Euro comes off its recent Greek-inspired highs.

Read more: Trading Recommendations


Last Week’s Rallies Present Renewed Shorting Opportunities

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 26 June 2011 22:34

(6-26-11) In late week trade we saw the Sep. Long Bond contract continue to hold above 126.00. Although the contract is still being turned back in the 126.16 - 24 area, we suspect the Bonds will move to trade into a new higher range. We continue to scalp the contract from the long side on dips.

Read more: Last Week’s Rallies Present Renewed Shorting Opportunities


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