Risk vs Safety: The Commodity Future Trades of the Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 21 November 2011 00:26
(11-20-11) In Friday’s trade, we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract once again trade above 143. We were consistent buyers above 143, taking quarter point scalps. We bought in the Bonds late on our standing order at 142.21 and remain long from that level.
Markets Take Another Line of European Hope-aine (Rhymes with Cocaine)
Written by Al Martin Monday, 14 November 2011 22:14
(11-13-11) Friday’s Hope-aine Rally creates fresh shorting opportunities.
We saw Friday once again the Dec. Long Bond contract backed off as global equity and commodity markets rallied, based on hope of the Berlusconi resignation that the new Italian government being formed will actually get something done. That yet remains to be seen.
We continue to trade the Dec. Long Bonds from the long side on back-offs. The Bonds actually had a good close late Friday. Given the extent of equity market rallies, we are looking to buy the Bonds Sunday on any retest of 140.02.
The Dec. Dollar contract was also coming down from recent resistance highs at 78.35. We would look to buy the contract on any dip back under 77.00.
Friday’s Unemployment Number Generates Fresh Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 07 November 2011 00:34
(11-6-11) In a knee-jerk reaction to Friday's generally
better-than-expected unemployment number, we saw a quick, sharp sell-off in the
December Long Bond contract, with our 140.00 standing buy order to be filled.
We were sellers of the contract at 141.00 in late session.
The ability of the Bond contract to hold on to its gains would suggest that we are not going to experience another "fantasy rally" in markets in the coming week's trade, based on the failure of the G-20 summit and would be looking to buy the contract on a dip to 140.08 in Sunday night's trade.
The Dec. Dollar contract continues to bounce along the lows. We have seen consistent buying coming into the contract on dips below 77.00 and would continue to look at dips down to 76.50 as fresh buying opportunities.
Relief Rally Sends Equity & Commodity Markets to Fresh Heights of Absurdity
Written by Al Martin Monday, 31 October 2011 01:32
(10-30-11) In late week action, we had bought the Dec. Long Bond contract on our standing orders at 135.16 in Thursday's overnight session. We were sellers at 136.16 in Friday's trade. The Bonds are now dramatically oversold at current levels and we would look for higher prices throughout the coming week.
The December Dollar Index, now coming down for another test of 75.00, is also sharply oversold. We would expect a Dollar bounce in the coming week's trade, as fears over the November 3 G-20 summit will begin to weigh on markets.
Weekend Failure of Latest Euro-Summit Means New Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 October 2011 23:30
(10-23-11) In Friday’s action we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract hold up well, relative to the bogus rally in equities.
We were buyers of the Dec. Long Bonds at 138.08 on the close Friday. We would expect the Bonds to move up Sunday night, as markets react to the recent failure of the Euro-summit and the further uncertainty of kicking the Euro-can down the road. We would look to be sellers at the 139.00 level.
The Dec Dollar contract fell again on Friday, and we would look at the 76.50 area as a buying opportunity, as we are currently short the Dec. Euro contract at 1.3890.
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