First of Year Rally Fades, As ‘January Effect’ Proves Bogus
Written by Al Martin Monday, 09 January 2012 02:01
(1-8-12) We were consistent buyers of the March Bonds throughout the week on dips below 142.19, as we had suggested in our last week"s missive. We should still be trading them form the long side on dips. We saw dips down to 142.02, a place where we have consistently bought them in the past. Indeed we think the par 42 area is the low for now.
March Long Bonds powered ahead, breaking upside resistance
at 81.35-45 area, as we suggested it would.
Our new target for the March Dollar contract is 82.00.
Feb. Oil – we have been consistently trading the Oil from
the short side, as we had mentioned in our previous week’s missive. We had used
rallies up to 103 as shorting opportunities throughout the week, the last opportunity
coming Friday morning when the Oil got briefly back above 103. Iranian
saber-rattling has done all it can do for now in terms of pushing Oil prices
higher – unless there is an actual incident with Iran. We are certain that the
oil will start trading under $100 in the coming week.
The recovery we saw in the Feb. Gold contract, off the 1524 lows, continued early week. We are now seeing resistance in the Gold at 1627. We were consistent sellers of the Gold on Thursday and Friday’s trade six times on rally efforts to 1620-627, covering on 10 dollar dips. Unless the 1630 area can be surmounted, we suspect the Gold will come back for a test of ...
March Silver still acting sloppy relative to the Gold. We are once again looking at the 29.00 level as the new shorting zone.580.
Trading on the Wild Moves in Gold & Silver
Written by Al Martin Monday, 02 January 2012 16:44
(1-1-12) In line with our previous week’s forecast, we did see a gradual drift up over the week in the S&Ps. We were trading the S&Ps throughout the week from the long side. We are now flat, having sold the rest of our March long S&P positions at 1264 in Thursday’s session.
We had recommended Thursday night that the March Long Bonds be bought at 144.08, as it was our feeling that Bonds would trade above 145 in Friday’s day session, which indeed occurred, as end-of year book-squaring forced those who were short Bonds to buy in. We saw a sharp decline from the intra-day highs Friday in Bonds back to 144.19. We would be looking to buy the Bonds again on a return to 144.08.
The March Dollar contract did trade up above 8100 intra-week, meeting resistance at the 8135 area. We continue to look at that near-term resistance. However with the Euro under more pressure, we think that resistance will be overcome.
The Feb. Oil contract which we had been consistently trading from the short side – we saw establish a series of lower lows. We were short the Oil again Thursday night on the inability of the Oil to get back above $100. We believe the Feb. Oil is coming back down to $95.
Traders Will Attempt To Profit on Year End Rally in Equities
Written by Al Martin Wednesday, 28 December 2011 01:22
(12-27-11) The Santa Claus Rally went missing this year because they didn’t have the news flows to support it with the ongoing problems in Europe.
The March Bonds were hit hard in Friday’s trade. We had shorted the Bonds at 143.03. It took a whole point out of them by the close. We bought the Bonds again at 142.02 on the closing bell as the Bonds are now significantly oversold relative to the action in the equities.
The March Dollar contract, after hitting resistance in the 80.35-45 area, as we predicted, is now being turned back from that resistance area. We would expect the Dollar to trade lower this week. However longer term or medium term prospects for the Dollar still look higher.
Feb. Oil is now rallying above $100, thus far presenting good shorting opportunities. However Oil is not quite ready to trade above $100 on a regular basis. We will continue to short the Oil at 100.23 or better, until Oil starts establishing closes above $100.
The Feb. Gold contract will likely come under more pressure this week. We think another test below $1600 is likely. We had shorted the contract on the close Thursday at 1606.70, and we would expect a test down to the 1580 by the end of the year.
Late Week Short Covering Sets Up Choice Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 19 December 2011 04:09
(12-18-11) We saw Friday night that Moody's downgraded Belgium two notches. It was widely rumored in late Friday action that a downgrade of some Euro country was coming, although nobody was sure which one in its continuing Euro Downgrade Conspiracy to attempt to push France and Germany into a resolution. We would expect the markets will continue to try to trend lower in the coming week’s trade, as hopes for the Santa Claus rally are all but gone.
We bought the March Long Bonds again at 144.12 the same place we had bought them in Thursday's trade. We were sellers Friday on our standing order at 145.12. Bonds held on to their late bid, despite fresh supply of the short end of the Treasuries coming in next week’s trade. We would expect the Long Bonds to remain well-bid and continue to look to trade them from the long side on dips.
From Friday's Bogus Rally (Fresh Shorting Opportunities) to Surplus Planet
Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 December 2011 05:20
(12-11-11) In an interesting note, it would appear that 2012 will be a redux of 1975, wherein we will see all soft and tropical commodities on the planet, as well as industrial metals, move into surpluses.
On Friday we saw equity markets rally, based on yet another failed Grand Euro-Confab. Global equity markets are now responding to rallies on European failures, which are now translated to being a success simply because the Europeans prevented everything from falling apart.
For another week.
a consequence, we saw the March Treasury Bonds, which had held up well in
Thursday's trade, finally come down. Our 141.31 sell-stops were hit in Friday’s
trade. We were filled at 141.29, covering on our standing order at 141.05.
We had actually bought the Bonds back in again and are now net long at 140.30, as we would expect the Bonds to recover in early week trade.
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