Latest Euro Machinations Roil Markets
Written by Al Martin Monday, 19 September 2011 15:46
(9-19-11) In Friday's session we saw the Dec. Long Bond contract get hit hard on the back of the latest Euro swap arrangements which pressured both US Dollars and Bonds. However we were buyers of the Bonds on our standing orders at 138.28 and were sellers late session taking nearly a point out of the contract. The Treasury Bonds are oversold at current levels and will trade back above 140 in the coming week's trade.
The pickup in the DXU contract in late session trade Friday will now likely continue with the Euro being overbought and artificially maintained. We expect the Dollar contract to come back. Speaking of the Euros, we were consistent short sellers of the Euros at 1.39 or better in Friday's trade, scalping on 50 point dips. We think the Euros trade back down to the 1.3750 area in early week trade.
You Think Last Week Was Volatile? Just Wait…
Written by Al Martin Monday, 12 September 2011 00:33
(9-11-11) Once again we were buyers of the Dec. Long Bond contract on the dip just below 140. We accumulated a ten-lot position at 139.31. We were sellers of the position on our standing order at 140.31 in Friday’s session. The Dec. Bonds are back at new contract highs. Expect the Bonds to continue to move higher.
Explosive upside action in the DXU’s. The contract is now trading up against resistance at 77.30. The next resistance is up at 78.30.
The Oct. Crude Oil contract – good shorting opportunity. We are still carrying our shorts from 90.12 in early Thursday trade, taking $3 out of the contract. Oil remains $10 overbought relative to economic fundamentals.
The Dec. Gold contract continues to offer superb scalping action. We took another $54 out of the contract in Friday’s trade. We see the trading zone at $1830-1860 still being where the majority of trades are. We expect however that the Gold will work higher early week and a new high will be established in the contract.
Dec. Silver continues to be the laggard in the complex, lagging the move up in Gold. We were consistent short sellers above 42.00 in early Friday action, taking more than 50 cents out of the contract by the close. The Trade du Jour continues to be "Long the Gold, Short the Silver" in the spreads.
German Supreme Court Vote & Italian Parliamentary Debate Will Decide the Fate of the European Union This Week
Written by Al Martin Monday, 05 September 2011 00:15
(9-4-11) The Dec. Long Bond contract had a stellar move higher, off the back of Friday’s poor unemployment numbers. We see both the Sep. and the Dec. contracts now trading solidly above 140. We are looking to buy the Dec. contract again in Sunday night trade on any pullbacks to retest 140.00.
The Sep. Dollar contract – good close at 74.70 in Friday’s session. We were consistent short sellers of the EUU’s at 142.50 as the level failed to hold. Euro looks like it’s coming down for a test of the 1.41 area in early week trade.
The Oct. Oil contract also backed off in Friday’s trade. Our 87.99 and 86.99 stops were both hit. We covered the Oil on the test down at 85.80. Oil lifted a dollar off lows by the close, but definitely looks lower in early week action.
Dec. Gold, which we had warned would rally by week’s end, indeed had a good close at 1884.60. We would expect the 1900 level to be retested as early as Sunday’s overnight action – as the European situation continues to unravel.
The Dec. Gold Contract: Trade of the Week
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 28 August 2011 21:16
(8-28-11) The Sep. Long Bond contract continued to be a trade from the long side on dips. We had bought the contract on our 137.00 buy stop in Thursday overnight trade. Our 138.00 sell order was hit in Friday’s action as the Bonds were propelled higher by worse than expected GDP numbers.
The Sep. Dollar contract fell back below 7400, coming back into our 73.65 preferred buying range. Indeed we looked to buy the Dollar at that level.
Oct. Crude Oil rallied once again, although we were consistent short sellers on moves above 86.00 as we had been throughout the week. We still believe the Oil is coming down to trade in a new 75.00 – 80.00 range.
The Dec. Gold contract was the Trade of the Week. When the pull-back to 1700 held in Thursday’s session, we had bought 10 lots at 1708 and another 10 lots at 1705. We had continued to buy the Gold up. We had put out an emergency flash recommendation Thursday night with our belief that the Dec. Gold contract would move back above 1800 in Friday’s session, which is in fact what happened.
We think the Gold rally will pull back for a retest of 1800, but continues to look good to go to the long side with no relief in sight for equities. (NOTE: Insider Intelligence also maintains a teleconferencing service advising traders in real-time trades. For more information, email us at customercare (AT) InsiderIntelligence.com)
End of Week Volatility Creates More Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 21 August 2011 22:04
(8-21-11) In overnight Thursday trade action, our 139.08 standing buy order was filled once again in the Sep. Long Bond contract. We were sellers at 140.08 in Friday’s day session, Sep. Long Bonds now reaching a new contract high, establishing a close above 140 for the first time. We are still trading the Bonds from the long side – as long as fear persists.
The Sep. Dollar contract moved up to our 74.30 - 40 target. The Dollars we bought at 73.90, we sold on our standing order at 74.40. We would look to continue to buy the Dollar on dips below 74.00.
Dynamic action in the Sep. Crude Oil contract. We were sellers on our 84.99 sell stops in Friday morning action. We took $2.50 out of the contract by the end of the day. The contract is now closing below $83 once again. We would expect another test of the 79.85 overnight close, as seen in Thursday’s session. We have no doubt that the Oil is going to start to trade in the new lower band.
Dec. Gold contract – explosive moves in Thursday and Friday’s trade. Once again we were buyers of the contract above 1800. The contract provided excellent shorting opportunities when the contract got tired above 1870 in Friday's trade. Our final trade was in fact shorting the contract at 1870, covering at 1850 in late session trade. If the Gold can continue to hold 1850 level, look for 1900 to be reached in early week’s trade.
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