Friday's Selloff in Long Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 27 January 2013 23:44

(1-27-13)  We had sold the Long Bonds as they came back under 145 in Friday’s overnight session as we have consistently done, riding them down to the 144.02 close, where we reversed our position and are now long again. We think the selloff in the Bonds was strictly a reaction to the S&Ps having established a close above 1500, a situation that we believe is temporary in that we were also short the SPH from 1498.

Read more: Friday's Selloff in Long Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity

Good Bounce Off of Thursday’s Lows in March Long Bond Contract Leads to Long Trade as Speculative Blow Off in Equities Continues to Build

Written by Al Martin Monday, 21 January 2013 04:17

(1-20-13)  The March Long Bonds finally came under some selling pressure in midweek trade, as equities continue to move into a blow-off top. However the Bonds continue to act well relative to the action in the equities. We were buyers of the Long Bonds at 145.02 in Thursday’s trade, selling them on our standing order at 145.58 in late Friday trade. We suspect that the Bonds still have higher to go and that the trade in the Bonds is still on the long side, bond bears of CNBC - not withstanding.

Read more: Good Bounce Off of Thursday’s Lows in March Long Bond Contract Leads to Long Trade as Speculative Blow Off in Equities Continues to Build

Continue to Short "Risk-On Trade" Generated Rallies

Written by Al Martin Monday, 14 January 2013 02:14

(1-13-13) Late week we saw the equity markets reach near-record levels of technical overvaluation with the Dow Transport Theory sell signal having been breached in Friday’s trade. We now see near-term equity prices as overbought as they have been in any time since the beginning of the break of the speculative bubble in Q-1 of  2007.

The March Long Bond contract – we continue to trade from the long side on dips. We saw the contract move up in Friday’s session. We were long from our 144.12 buy orders from the overnight session. We were sellers on our standing orders at 145.12 in Friday’s trade. Bonds continue to do well despite pooh-poohing by Bond bears, most notably Bill Gross of Pimco, who hasn’t been right about the Bond markets in the last 2 years.

Read more: Continue to Short "Risk-On Trade" Generated Rallies

Do Not Be Intimidated by Record Levels of Overvaluation

Written by Al Martin Sunday, 06 January 2013 22:47

(1-6-13) We continued to trade the March Bonds on the long side after their declines last week. We were consistent buyers of the Bonds on our standing order of 143.22, wherein we had accumulated a long position. Our standing sell order at 144.22 was hit in Friday’s trade, as Bonds began to recover after being hit on incorrect presumption about early QE withdrawal. We think the Bonds will continue to recover over the next five sessions, as the 'spoos' march to record highs before their reversal.

Read more: Do Not Be Intimidated by Record Levels of Overvaluation