Reduction in Fear Bid Represents Fresh Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 28 July 2014 00:33
(7-27-14)With reduction in the Fear Bid coming out of both the Israeli and Ukrainian situation that has occurred over the weekend which has temporarily cooled down, we would expect the Sep. Long Bond contract to back off in Sunday night’s trade. We had bought the contract in again at our standing order at 137.26 in Thursday’s session, selling on our standing order at 138.26, a place where we have been consistently selling our longs and getting short. Indeed we are short again from 138.26 and would be looking to take ¾ of a point out of the contract on a reduction in the Fear Bid.
After having traded Gold from the long side most of last week, we are short the Gold now from 1315 and would expect the Gold to break 1290 in the coming week’s trade.
We Told You To Get Short That Gold!
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 20 July 2014 23:47
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(7-20-14) We had warned in the Aug. Gold contract to watch the 1340 level. Indeed we were not able to get above 1340 for a test of that 1342 area. We immediately began to short the gold at 1338.30 and rode down our short positions to our cover orders at 1309.30 in Friday’s trade. Fear Bid – coming out of the market in end of week trade. Gold always the key indicator of the fear bid and we believe the Gold will continue to flag without increased tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
We continue to trade the Sep. Long Bond contract from the long side. We had warned last week that that 138 resistance would be taken out and that there would be a renewed test of the 138.26 area. Indeed we saw that in late week trade. We were long the contract and sold at 138.26, got short Friday as the fear bid started to come out of the Gold, generating a sell signal in the Bonds. We have now covered our shorts at 138.02 in late Friday trade and would again continue to trade the Bonds from the long side now on dips back to 137.16.
The Aug. Oil also responded in late week fear bid. However once again we were sellers in the 103.70 area, allowing us to take 75 cents out of the contract in Friday’s trade. We think the Oil will now begin to slough back down for a second test of 100.00.
The Oct. Sugar continued to come under pressure late week breaking 17.00 as we told you it would in our previous week’s missive. All supply/ demand commodities continue to be under pressure with record global inventories and global gut-busting 2014 new cycle crop on the way. Continue to short the Oct. Sugar now on rallies back to 17.20 or better.
The Sep Juice also picked up in late week short-covering. We sold the Juice again in Friday’s close at 1.5260 and would be looking to take 3 cents out of the Juice in the coming week’s trade.
We continue to sell the Lumber now on rallies back to 335, scaling down shorts with the Lumber still holding 320. However we think that 320 will give way as soon as this week’s trade.
Grains continue under pressure as record global crop production looms. The Nov. Beans finally found support down at the 10.70 area, but have acted sloppy to the up side. We are now short the Beans from 11.02 and would be looking to take 20 cents out of the trade.
Sep. Silver finally came down relative to the Gold, giving up the premium it held for several weeks. Although the 20.75 area is still holding, we think that too will give way in the coming week’s trade.
We were able to sell the Aug. Platinum one more time on our standing order at 1514, covering at 1494, taking $20 out of the contract. We think the days of being able to sell the Platinum above 1500 are coming to an end.
We had warned that the Sep. Copper would back off in this week’s trade. Indeed we see the 3.20 previous support area did not hold as Chinese Copper buying continues to decline and global Copper inventories continue to swell. We have covered our short positions in Copper at 3.1875 on the close Friday. Now look to sell the Copper on any moves above 3.20
Friday short covering in the Sep. Coffee -- largely technical buying on the failure of Coffee to be able to move below 1.60 during the week. We shorted the Coffee again at 1.7240 in late Friday session trade and would sell more of it on any higher opening Sunday night.
Sep. Cocoa – beginning to run out of steam. We continue to short the Cocoa on any moves above 3100, allowing us to sell the Cocoa 3 times last week from 3104 – 06, taking $20-30 out each time. We think the 3070 area in the Cocoa is finally going to be broken.
Dec. Cotton continues to come under pressure, as Pakistani and Indian Cotton flooding global markets. We think the Cotton will come down for a test of 65.00.
We sold the Sep. Wheat in an emergency sell recommendation Friday on our standing order at 5.54 covering m.o.c. We were filled at 5.33, taking 11 cents out of the contract Fear bid coming into the Wheat again, due to increased Ukrainian tensions has proved to be a short selling opportunity every time.
Continue to look to sell the Dec. Corn on moves back to 3.90 or better covering on 15 cent dips.
Long Bonds Continue To March Higher as Supply/ Demand Commodities Collapse
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 13 July 2014 22:42
(7-13-14) We continue to trade the Sep. Long Bond from the
long side, having purchased all of last week on dips down at the 136.16 area.
Our last buy in the Bonds came Thursday
night at 136.31. We were sellers on our
standing orders at 137.15 in Friday day session trade to take out the half
point. Bonds now overcoming that resistance at 137. We are now looking for a move back up to a
test of the 138.00 area in the Bonds.
Supply/Demand Driven Commodities Continue to Fall; All Others a Trade
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 06 July 2014 22:45
(7-6-14) Our standing contingent orders in the Sep. Long
Bond contract, wherein we were buying the Bonds at 134.20, selling them at
135.02 was done in Thursday’s session, thanks to the stronger than expected unemployment
report which initially exerted pressure in the Long Bond contract.
Look for Second Half Swoon
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 June 2014 21:29
(6-29-14) Monday will conclude end of quarter and half portfolio window dressing and book squaring. We expect that the equities will begin to decline after Monday. Any rallies on Monday -- the spoos should be sold. We bought the Bonds again three times in Thursday and Friday’s trade on back-offs. Note Bonds are having trouble up at 137.08 and better area, an area where the Bonds have had troubles in the past. However Bonds remain a buy on dip trade.
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