Friday’s Better Than Expected Unemployment Numbers Create New Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Monday, 08 December 2014 00:10
FREE SAMPLE OF WEEKLY
MARKET TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS
(12-7-14) We sold the March Long Bonds on our 141.24 stop which was hit immediately after the better than expected unemployment numbers were announced. We were filled in fast market conditions at 141.18 which we covered on our standing order at 141.04, wherein we also reversed and were sellers at 141.16 -- all trades that we did on our advisory line in real time at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.
Also Spoos initially shell-shocked by the larger numbers, a reaction we have seen before. We bought in the Spoos at 2071.50 and we had a sell order at 2077.50 and were subsequently filled later in the session. Also hit were our standing sell stops at 1199.90 in the Feb. Gold contract. We were filled at 1197.40 and were ultimately covered on our standing order at 1189.90 by session end.
The March Sugar – we came in short again at the 15.20 level, yet again taking 15 ticks out of the contract. In line with our previous week’s missive, we continue to short the Sugar on moves to 15.20 or better, covering on 15-20 tick dips.
The Jan. Juice continues to consolidate in the 1.46-1.48 area. We continue to sell the Juice on rallies up to 1.48 or better, covering on 1-1/2 cent dips.
The Jan. Lumber also moved up on short covering in reaction to the stronger data in Friday’s session. We are now short the Lumber at 338.50 and currently have a cover order in at 330.50.
The Jan. Beans -- our 10.1025 buy stops were hit, selling m.o.c. wherein we were filled at 35, allowing us to take some 26 cents out of the trade. We now think the Beans are overbought at current levels and should be shorted on any continuation rally in Sunday night’s session.
Feb. Silver fell down in line with expectation. We had repeatedly sold the Silver on our standing order at 16.42, covering at 16.32 down to 16.27. We continue to like selling the Feb. Silver on moves to 16.42 or better.
We had warned of lower prices coming in the Jan. Platinum contract. We were continuously selling the contract throughout the week on our standing order at 1240 which we were filled on three times, including Thursday’s overnight session, taking $5-$10 scalps. Our last cover order at 1220 was also hit in Friday’s session. We are now short again the Platinum from 1222 and would be looking for a test down at 1202 to cover.
The Feb. Palladium contract also fell back. We were consistent sellers throughout the week as we have been in the last 10 days on our standing orders at 803, covering on dips to 796, a trade that we got off 5 times. We continue to like that trade.
The Feb. Copper also tried to recover in Friday’s session, sluggish action above 2.90, however we are still looking to short the Copper again on moves back to 2.92 or better.
We had warned of lower median prices coming in the March Coffee contract. We continue to use that 1.85 area as a pivot. We now think however that the Coffee will begin to establish closes under 1.80 and that Coffee should now be sold on moves back to the 1.83 area.
Cocoa remains overbought at current levels due to year-end shilling. The March Cocoa however should be sold on moves up to 2890 and covered on $20-40 dips.
March Cotton – having a hard time sustaining rallies above 60 cents in line with our previous week’s recommendation. We continue to sell the Cotton on moves up to 60.40 or better, covering on ½ to 1 cent dips. We continue to like that trade.
A Short Seller’s Paradise
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 30 November 2014 22:16
(11-30-14) In Thursday’s holiday action and Friday’s half-session, we saw the Oil get broken on OPEC’s inability to agree on any production cut. This took the rest of the boards lower. We were short the Gold, still from 1197, which we were able to cover at 1167. Also our 74.30 short in the Oil -- we finally covered at 66.30. We would expect some carry-forward momentum to the downside on the re-open Sunday night followed likely by some short-covering rallies.
Mario Draghi Euro Jawboning Roils Markets
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 November 2014 22:09
(11-23-14) In Thursday’s overnight session we saw the scheduled Draghi-speak occur when once again Mario the Magician was able to roil markets by jaw-boning the Euro down still further for a test of its most recent lows at 1.2375. We think the Euros are now a buy and that the test is now completed in that Draghi did not come up with anything concrete – just another round of jawboning which created long-side opportunities in the bonds and in the metals. We feel that the metals will now be a short, coming into the next week’s trade.
Friday’s Short Squeeze in the Euro Sets Up Shorting Opportunities in Monday’s Trade
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 16 November 2014 22:23
(11-16-14) The Mario Draghi-instituted short squeeze in the Euros, which in turn created a short squeeze in the Gold, Silver, Oil and other Dollar-sensitive commodities on Friday, created a great shorting opportunity for the coming week’s trade. With large short positions now weeded out, fresh shorts including myself will be looking to come in Sunday night. We are currently short the Gold after having been long on our 1160.10 buy stops, which we got out at 1192. We sold the Gold away at 1193 and are currently short from that level.
Friday Fear Bid Trade Creates Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 09 November 2014 21:09
(11-9-14) We saw substantial fear bid rallies come into the Gold and Treasury Bonds based on deterioration in the global geo-political events, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian situation. This combined with the action in the Euro on Thursday, wherein the Euro fell back on more Draghi jawboning sets up the week for reversals. We are now looking to trade the Dec. Long Bonds on the short side on any extension above 142 on Monday night.
We are also looking to trade the Oil continually on the short side on rallies to 79.20 or better as we had done throughout the week.
Dec. Gold in Thursday night action coming down to test 1130
support level -- sharp reversal as shorts were forced out on the fear bid
created move back above 1150. We sold the Gold on the close on our standing
order at 1178.30 after having been long the Gold on the move back up from 1135.
We think shorts have now been flushed from the Gold and short of World War 3
happening over the weekend, we would expect the Gold to move lower.
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