A Short Seller’s Paradise
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 30 November 2014 22:16
(11-30-14) In Thursday’s holiday action and Friday’s half-session, we saw the Oil get broken on OPEC’s inability to agree on any production cut. This took the rest of the boards lower. We were short the Gold, still from 1197, which we were able to cover at 1167. Also our 74.30 short in the Oil -- we finally covered at 66.30. We would expect some carry-forward momentum to the downside on the re-open Sunday night followed likely by some short-covering rallies.
Mario Draghi Euro Jawboning Roils Markets
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 23 November 2014 22:09
(11-23-14) In Thursday’s overnight session we saw the scheduled Draghi-speak occur when once again Mario the Magician was able to roil markets by jaw-boning the Euro down still further for a test of its most recent lows at 1.2375. We think the Euros are now a buy and that the test is now completed in that Draghi did not come up with anything concrete – just another round of jawboning which created long-side opportunities in the bonds and in the metals. We feel that the metals will now be a short, coming into the next week’s trade.
Friday’s Short Squeeze in the Euro Sets Up Shorting Opportunities in Monday’s Trade
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 16 November 2014 22:23
(11-16-14) The Mario Draghi-instituted short squeeze in the Euros, which in turn created a short squeeze in the Gold, Silver, Oil and other Dollar-sensitive commodities on Friday, created a great shorting opportunity for the coming week’s trade. With large short positions now weeded out, fresh shorts including myself will be looking to come in Sunday night. We are currently short the Gold after having been long on our 1160.10 buy stops, which we got out at 1192. We sold the Gold away at 1193 and are currently short from that level.
Friday Fear Bid Trade Creates Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 09 November 2014 21:09
(11-9-14) We saw substantial fear bid rallies come into the Gold and Treasury Bonds based on deterioration in the global geo-political events, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian situation. This combined with the action in the Euro on Thursday, wherein the Euro fell back on more Draghi jawboning sets up the week for reversals. We are now looking to trade the Dec. Long Bonds on the short side on any extension above 142 on Monday night.
We are also looking to trade the Oil continually on the short side on rallies to 79.20 or better as we had done throughout the week.
Dec. Gold in Thursday night action coming down to test 1130
support level -- sharp reversal as shorts were forced out on the fear bid
created move back above 1150. We sold the Gold on the close on our standing
order at 1178.30 after having been long the Gold on the move back up from 1135.
We think shorts have now been flushed from the Gold and short of World War 3
happening over the weekend, we would expect the Gold to move lower.
Buying Dips on US Treasuries Still a Good Trade
Written by Al Martin Monday, 03 November 2014 01:07
(11-2-14) Good action in the lower trading zone in the Dec.
Long Bond contract throughout the week. We were consistently buying the Bonds
on our standing order at 140.16, selling them on rallies back to 141.08. We
bought the Bonds again Friday at 140.16 and currently have a standing sell
order at 141.08. We will continue to trade this range until further
The Dec. Oil contract -- we continue to short on rallies back to 81.50 or better, covering on $1-2 dips. Although the Dec. Oil contract has yet to establish a close under $80, we expect that the current effort to manipulate the price of Oil can not be sustained and that the Dec. Oil will begin trading in a new lower zone soon.
We had warned of lower prices coming in the Dec. Gold
contract. Indeed our 1219.90 sell stops were hit in Thursday’s action, leaving
us short the Gold from 1219.70. We did not cover our short position until the
1272.70 support area was reached. Sloppy action in the Dec. Gold off all rally
efforts. We think that if the Dec. Gold gets under 1265, the Gold will trade
down to 1250.
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