Drop in US Treasury Bonds Creates Buying Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 05 May 2013 22:34
(5-5-13) The dramatic declines we saw in the June US
Treasury Long Bond contract on Friday represent a near-term buying opportunity.
We bought the Bonds late at 146.31. We would be looking to take a half a point
out of the contract on a bounce back in Sunday night’s trade. We think that the
selling on Treasury Bonds was overdone, as was the buying in the SPX, since the
unemployment numbers were not that far away from original expectation. We were
also short the June S&P contract from 1612.
US Treasury Long Bonds Continue to Pick Up Steam, As Gold Re-Approaches Turn-Back Point
Written by Al Martin Monday, 29 April 2013 03:32
(4-28-13) We have been trading the June Gold on the long side throughout last week. However we have now had a solid 4% bounce off of recent lows. With the Gold having tested resistance at the 1482 area and has been turned back twice there, we think the Gold now is running out of steam and should be sold.
Trading Opportunities Abound as Economic Fundamentals Continue To Weaken
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 21 April 2013 21:17
(4-21-13) We saw the June Long Bond contract once again turn
back at the 148.20 level in both Thursday and Friday session. This has been due
to so-called “last hurrah” shorting by those already short the market, in that anything
higher than 148.20 would flush shorts out. We suspect that the June Long Bond
contract will move above 148.20 in the coming week’s trade and will test the
149.12 area by week’s end with the help of short covering.
Late Week ‘Whiff’ of Deflation Roils Markets
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 14 April 2013 20:50
(4-14-13) We had put out a buy recommendation in the June Long Bond contract at 146.04 in Thursday's overnight trade where we were long 16 lots. We saw the Bonds move higher on Friday as deflationary fears began to roil global markets. Once again Bonds trading up to their 147.20 recent resistance area. We were sellers of the Bonds at 147.16. We shorted at 147.19 on our standing orders and are looking to cover Sunday night on a pullback to 147.11 to take a quarter out of the trade. Although the Bonds are extended, the Bonds traded well all of last week. With last week’s US Treasury supply now out of the way, we would look to buy the market on dips. June Dollar contract continued to back off from recent highs. However we suspect the 82.00 area will act as support and we would look for a turn higher off a test of that level, as we continue to believe that the Euros can not remain above 1.30 for very long.
The May Crude Oil contract fell sharply in Friday’s trade on deflationary fears as well as rising global inventories and declining demand. We were short the contract from 94.53 covering on the close. We think that the contract will come down for a clean test of $90 but will likely hold for now.
The June Gold contract got hammered in Friday’s session. We
were short from Friday morning at 1562. We covered on our standing orders at
1495. Gold fell a further $20. Indeed we got long the Gold on our standing
orders at 1475. We think the move in the Gold was overdone and would look for a
bounce back to retest the 1505 level.
Long Bond Trade Continues to Generate Profit
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 07 April 2013 21:21
(4-7-13) As our readers know, we have been trading the Long Bonds futures from the long side on dips all of this year. Again in Thursday night trade, we put out our recommendation to buy the Bonds at 146.04, where we had bought 10 lots in. We had sold the Bonds on the following day at 147.24, after we were correct in surmising that the monthly unemployment report would be weaker than forecast. We now feel, however, that Bonds are overdone at current levels. Indeed we had sold the Bonds short at 147.28 in light session trade on Friday and will be looking for a dip down to the 147.16 area on Sunday niht.
The June Dollar contract fell back, as Euros rallied off of our weak data. We think however that the rally in the Euro is overdone and was directly related to our data. We would be looking to get short the June Euro contract again in Sunday night trade.
The May Oil continued to trade weak in Friday's session. Our
93.99 sell stops were hit, allowing us to take more than a dollar out of the
contract. We still think the Oil is coming down for a test of 90.00.
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