Look for Second Half Swoon
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 June 2014 21:29
(6-29-14) Monday will conclude end of quarter and half portfolio window dressing and book squaring. We expect that the equities will begin to decline after Monday. Any rallies on Monday -- the spoos should be sold. We bought the Bonds again three times in Thursday and Friday’s trade on back-offs. Note Bonds are having trouble up at 137.08 and better area, an area where the Bonds have had troubles in the past. However Bonds remain a buy on dip trade.
Good Action in the Gold Continues
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 June 2014 21:40
(6-22-14) We continue to trade the Sep. Long Bond contract
from the long side. We were able to buy
the contract twice last week on our standing orders at 135.00, taking 3/8 of a
point out on each occasion. We continue to look to buy the Bonds at 135 or
Bonds Remain Good as Summer Swoon Begins in the Equities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 June 2014 23:25
(6-15-14) We’re now
trading the Sep. Spoos on the short side. We’ll be coming into Monday’s session
still short from 1930 and looking for a test down to 1910 in the coming week’s
trade. We continue to trade the Sep. Long Bonds from the long side,
consistently buying at 135.16, selling on our standing orders at 136.00 and
getting short again at 136.04 or better. This trade is consistently working. We
continue to like the trade between 135.50 and 136.25.
ECB Action Creates Fresh Trading Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 08 June 2014 21:20
FREE SAMPLE COLUMN OF FUTURES TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS - SUBSCRIBE NOW
(6-8-14) Mario Draghi foot-dragging appears to be at an end, despite speculation to the contrary, creating good two-way action in the June Euro futures. You wanted to be short the futures going into the Draghi speak as we were. Initial reaction gave us a chance to sell the June futures at 1.3620 or better. A great shorting opportunity on the test down at the 1.3500 level, then the bounce on the short covering reversal. We shorted the Euros again for the second time at 1.3665. We think this is money in the bank, as we believe that the Euros will come down for a second test of the 1.35 area in the coming week’s trade.
Good action in the June Long Bonds on both sides. We were short sellers on our standing orders at 136.We were able to take a half point out on the short side. We think that the Bonds should be shorted again on any move back to 136.00.
Good shorting action seen in the July Crude Oil. We were selling the Oil again on moves at 103.30 in line with our previous suggestions, covering on 50 cent dips. We have standing sell orders in the Oil at 103.25.
Short covering seen late week in the Aug. Gold contract off the hold at the 1242 area. However we think this area is shortable. We were sellers again at 1258. We think that any moves back to retest 1260 are shortable.
July Sugar -- under continued late week liquidation. Again we had sold the Sugar away in the 17.30 area, in line with our previous suggestions. We were able to take a half a penny out of it by end of week trade. With fresh Sugar supplies coming to market despite Brazilian drought, we still believe 16.60 is in the cards for the July contract.
July Juice – running out of steam in the 1.6 area. We were short sellers at 1.6420. We’re going to hold on to the Juice and wait for a retest of the 1.60 area.
July Lumber – in line with our previous predictions has come down for a hard test of 300 after failing to hold the 320 area. We think the July Lumber should be shorted again on any bounce back to 311 or better.
Action in the Grains – good shorting opportunities once again in the July Beans on the second failure at 15.00. We were sellers again at 14.93, covering m.o.c. Friday at 14.58. We continue to think the Beans should be shorted on moves above 14.80. Good test of the July Wheat in the $6 area. Given Friday’s bounce we think the Wheat is shortable again in the 618 – 620 area. July Corn also should be shorted on a retest back to the 4.65 or higher area.
We had warned that the July Cotton would give up recent gains. Indeed we saw the July Cotton give up 2 cents on the week. We had been short from 86.70 and were able to cover on our standing orders at 84.70 in Friday’s session. We think the Cotton is coming back down for a test of 83.50 area.
July Cocoa moved above 3100 – finally -- as shorts got blown out bringing in fresh CLP buying just above 3100. Our standing contingent order selling 10 Cocoa at 3103 covering at 3073 in Friday’s trade. We think any move back to 3100 in the Cocoa should be shorted.
July Coffee -- still holding the 1.67 area lows. We were short sellers again on the close at 1.72 in Friday’s trade and would be looking to take a nickel out of the position in the coming week’s trade.
We had warned of severe overvaluation in the July Copper contract. Indeed we saw the Copper give up more than 10 cents on the week. A hard test of the 3.03 area has been accomplished. We think any return back for a test of 3.10 should be shorted.
July Silver – we are consistently selling the Silver in the 19.12 area, covering on 25 cent dips. We think the Silver should be sold on any moves above 19.10.
We had also warned of overvaluation in the July Platinum contract. Indeed we saw the Platinum under pressure in late week trade. We would be looking to sell the Platinum again on any moves back to 1470, covering on a $20 dip.
Continue to Trade the Long Bonds from the Long Side on Dips, as Gold Remains a Sell
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 01 June 2014 22:43
(6-1-14) Once again we were buyers of the June Long Bonds on
our standing order three times midweek at 138.01. We were able to take a
quarter point out of the Bonds each time although the Bonds are now looking
tired in the 138.16 or better area. Continue to buy them on dips down to 137.24
till the tapes tell you otherwise.
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