Breaks in the Hopium Clouds Begin to Appear
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:49
(8-12-12) In Thursday’s trade we bought the Sep. Long Bond contract on our standing order at 148.04, selling on our standing order at 148.28 in Friday’s session, taking ¾ of a point out of the trade in two days. We still feel the Bonds are cheap and with breaks in the Hopium clouds now coming, we think the Bonds remain a long trade under 149.00.
The Sep. Oil continued to consolidate around $93 in Thursday and Friday’s trade. We were consistent sellers of the contract on moves up to 93.80, covering on dips down to 93.00. We believe the Oil will begin to back down in the coming week’s trade and we expect that 92.00 will be tested early week.
CNBC Grand Council of Shills: Reality Dead, Hopium Still Rules the Day
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 05 August 2012 23:37
(8-5-12) In Friday’s trade, we saw yet another rally based on Euro hopes combined with better than expected US unemployment data, lifting the Sep. Spoos above recent resistance at 1382. We also saw the Sep. Long Bond contract get hit. We were short sellers of the contract at 150.17, covering on 149.23 close. We would look to get long the Sep. Bonds on any further dips Sunday night. Also we are looking to short the Sep. Spoos on any higher move in Sunday overnight trade.
Good short squeeze in end of week action in Sep. Crude Oil contract with the contract breaking above $91, prompting a fresh round of short covering. We shorted the Oil on a 91.34 close and would be looking for a retest of $90 in early week trade.
The December Gold contract – lethargic. We were short sellers when the contract came below $1600 on our $1599.90 stops, taking $6 out of the contract. As the contract continued to hold the $1592 area, we went long the contract again at $1593, taking $10 back up the other way. Gold continues to act lethargic, however, and we continue to like trading the Gold on the short side.
Hopium Reigns Supreme… As Equity/ Commodity Markets Become a Place Where Reality Dare Not Dwell
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 29 July 2012 21:54
(7-29-12) In Friday’s trade we saw the steepest one-day drop in the Sep. Long Bond contract on the year with a 2-5/8 point intra-day high-low range. We were short sellers of the contract on our 151.19 sell stop, which we covered on our standing order at 150.09. We also were filled on our next down buy orders at 149.28 and were sellers on the late lift to 150.12, the contract settling out at 150.07, down more than two whole points on the session. Bonds are severely oversold now, reacting to global central bank stimulus Hopium in next week’s trade. We would be looking to buy the Bonds once again in Sunday night’s session on any retest of the 150.00 level.
The Sep. Dollar contract continued to back off in Friday’s trade, as Euro rallies on ECB hopes of third LTRO in the coming week’s trade dominated Dollar action. We think the Dollar contract however will be a buy on a test of 82.50, as we are currently short the Sep. Euros from 12375.
Technically Overbought Readings in S&P 500 Reach Record Levels, as Treasury Bonds Continue to Rally
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 22 July 2012 23:48
(7-22-12) Last week we continued to trade the SPU contract from the short side. We were sellers at Thursday’s close at 1371.50, covering on our standing orders at 1361.50 in Friday’s session. We were also long the Bonds from Thursday at 150.19, having bought them on Thursday’s close. We were sellers of the Bonds on our standing orders at 151.31 in Friday’s session. We had warned last week that the Bonds would retest 152. Indeed we saw the 152 tapped in Friday’s trade. We think the Sep. Long Bond contract will now move above last week’s high of 152.10.
Friday’s 'Poor Quality' Rally Creates Shorting Opportunities
Written by Al Martin Sunday, 15 July 2012 21:58
(7-15-12) In the equities Friday, we saw a “poor-quality” rally, led by end of week short covering on light volume and marginal internals, creating what we feel will be another shorting opportunity. Indeed we sold the Sep. Spoos away at 13.52 right on the closing bell. We have a standing cover order in at 13.37.
Also, the Sep. Long Bond contracts, as we promised you in our previous week’s missive, did trade above 151 in the week’s trade, going out at 151.10 in Friday’s session. We had told you that this week’s long-dated Treasury auctions would go well. Indeed the 10 year note auction reached a record low-yield and record high bid to cover ratio. The 30 year Bond auction was nearly as good, indicating the fear bid is still alive and well in the US Treasuries. We would expect the Sep. Treasuries to rally back to test their 151.24 intra-week high which was tested twice in mid-week trade.
The Sep. Dollar contract backed off after meeting resistance at 84.00, but we now think that the 84.00 area will be breached and this contract will move up to test 85.00 in our belief that the Euro is coming down for a test of the annual low at 1.1826.
The Aug. Oil – another great shorting opportunity, as short covering flushed out weak-handed shorts in Friday’s session. We were short sellers of the Oil again right on the close at 87.07. Oil is now dramatically overbought relative to underlying fundamentals. We would expect the Oil to back off to the 84.00 level in the coming week’s trade.
Page 9 of 40«StartPrev12345678910NextEnd»