Weekly Market Summary For Week Ending 11-25-05
BY AL MARTIN
This is a summary of last week’s trades (Nov 21 - 25) on InsiderIntelligence.com’s $25,000 model trade portfolio. (Code Key: L - Long, S - Sold, SS - Sold Short, C - Covered) --
In Monday’s trade, we SS KCH 99.70 C 99.00, SS-2 LBF 344 C 342.70, L-2 DXZ 91.40 S 91.50, L-2 CLF 57.50 S 58.00, SS-2 LBF 346.00 C 343.50, L CLF 57.45 S 57.70.
In Tuesday’s trade, we SS SIZ 8.20 C 8.175, L-2 LBF 329.00 S 330.50, SS CLF 59.00 C 58.70, SS CLZ 59.00 C 58.70, SS SIZ 8.23 C 8.18, L-2 LBF 329 S 330.50.
In Wednesday’s trade, we SS-2 CTH 52.80 C 52.50, SS CLZ 58.90 C 58.60, L-2 SIZ 8.055 S 8.085, SS-2 KCH 101.70 C 101.00, SS-2 HGZ 192.00 C 190.00, SS-2 KCH 1440 C 1423, SS HGZ 195.00 C 194.00.
No trade Thursday.
In Friday’s trade, we went L-2 USZ 112.16 S 112.20, L-2 USZ 112.22 S 112.26, L-2 DXZ 91.55 S 91.65, SS-2 USZ 112.30 C 112.26.
In last week’s trade, we traded a total of 24 positions, comprising 30 lots, generating aggregate gross profits of $5,675. Unrealized loss carryforward was $850.
LAST WEEK saw the SPX trade in a 23.75-point regular session range, settling out the week at 1268.25, up 19.98 points, week over week, as the historically strong Oct. 27-Nov. 23rd period gave way to the also historically strong Thanksgiving Day week period, which, in turn, will now give way to a historical period of weakness lasting until December 13.
Last week’s SPX market action saw the 1050, 1053/55 & 1060 upside resistance levels fall, on a closing basis, despite continuingly marginal market internals, wherein the 90-day moving average of market internals remains below its trend line, with market fundamentals also remaining mixed.
Further, in last week’s trade, we increase our near-term short position, now at an SPX 1262 cash equivalent, and we will be looking to cover our position on a re-test of the SPX 1250 level, which we expect will occur in the coming week’s trade, aided by our expectations of net bearish ECR’s.
As to market internals, the 1250, 1253/55 & 1260 levels will now act as support, with next upside resistance in the 1272/75 zone, on to the important 1280 resistance level (refer to your 89-month charts), and, as always, keep one eye on the coming week’s ECR’s, to provide trading opportunities.
In other market trading last week:
The USZ contract was taken down, mid-week, by ECB Chief Trichet’s comments regarding European interest rate policy, providing an excellent trading opportunity in the USZ contract from the long side at 112.10, in Wednesday’s trade, which we sold at 112.26, in Friday’s session, scalping a half-point profit in the 2-day trade, with the floor looking to bid up the bonds still further on any weakness in Monday-Tuesday’s ECR’s.
The DXZ contract was also affected, allowing for an excellent long-side scalp at 91.30 in Wednesday’s trade, selling at 92.00 in Friday’s trade. However, we would expect further upside action, in both the USZ & DXZ contracts, to be limited, given the coming week’s ECB policy meet.
In last week’s futures trade:
The CCH contract continued to provide dynamic shorting opportunities on rallies to 1440, or better, covering out on dips back to 1415, or lower, with the KCH contract providing tasty shorting opportunities to scalp 1-2 cents on rallies to 102.50, or better.
Further, the OJF contract continues its trek back to its underlying supply/demand equation, providing consistent shorting opportunities on rallies to 118.00, or better, with the CTH contract remaining a short above 52.00, and the SBH contract continuing to provide shorting opportunities, on rallies to 12.15, or better.
Also, after 2 limit-down sessions in last week’s trade, we are looking for a ‘dead cat’ bounce in the LBF contract, back to the 330 area, before resuming its decline, and, in the metals complex, we continue to scalp the SIZ contract from the short side, on rallies to 8.20, or better.
In the grains, we believe the WH contract is oversold, and continue to scalp it, from the long side, on dips to 3.12, or better.
As always, we welcome subscriber e-mails to [email]email@example.com[/email] with your trading questions on any particular equity, debt or commodity futures contract and/or index.