“I think it’s kind of a hard sell,” said our analyst Daniel Konstantinovic of Netflix’s Basic with Ads tier. Existing Netflix users are used to ad-free content, and even a cheaper price won’t win most of them over, he said. Could a potential recession change that?

TikTok’s future is anything but guaranteed: While the app remains king of video for now, Meta and Google are making strides to steal market share.

Previously, we didn’t expect video to hit the 50% milestone until after 2024. With advertisers preserving more of their social video budgets during the downturn, this trend was accelerated.

TikTok bans in colleges go viral: The fallout from students and teachers could be indicative of wider pushback against banning the app.

Disney to bring Hulu ad targeting to its streaming properties: Move should bring efficiencies as Netflix looks to bulk up its ad tier.

Netflix’s latest move means big things for its livestream ambitions: The company will stream the SAG Awards on YouTube this year and on its own platform next year.

Subscription OTT video is chasing linear TV in terms of time spent in the US. We estimate adults still spend significantly more time per day watching TV, but that figure is decreasing and will fall below 3 hours this year. Meanwhile, for subscription OTT video, time spent will surpass an hour and a half per day. But ad spend on these platforms is not proportional to time spent.

The way people watch TV is changing. So are the ways brands advertise on TV. Connected TV has seen “monumental progress in just a handful of years,” said our analyst Ross Benes. But that’s not the full story. Here are key TV behaviors and ad trends to watch in the new year.

In 2022, both YouTube and TikTok captured 46 minutes of their adult US users’ attention each day, per our estimates. Netflix reigned supreme at 60 minutes daily. Time spent with TikTok will tick up every year through 2024, when it will reach 48 minutes per day, but it won’t pass Netflix anytime soon.

Apple’s sports ambitions take a hit: YouTube TV has won NFL Sunday Ticket rights over the consumer tech giant.

Ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) viewing will reach more than half of the US population in 2026, up from 41.8% this year, per our forecast.

Netflix’s lead in viewership over other services isn’t as large as it once was. But Netflix is still streaming’s king.

Before the pandemic, Roku, Hulu, and YouTube made up about half (45.9%) of the US connected TV (CTV) ad market. That market has expanded significantly. Despite solid US CTV ad revenue growth across all three companies, their combined share will account for around one-third of the $26.92 billion that will go to CTV in 2023.

US government intensifies stance against TikTok: A permanent ban from government devices could push the public sector to further remove TikTok from devices. But some fear the service is too big to fail.

Netflix experiences growing pains as an ad platform: It misses some viewership guarantees by a mile—though it’s trying to make up for it.

There were 559 original scripted TV series made in the US in 2021, according to FX Networks. That’s more than twice the number made a decade prior.

Amazon is the latest company to copy TikTok: The retailer is adding a continuous, shoppable feed to its app to enhance product discovery and grow sales.

We believe Netflix remains the most watched service in the world, but it is not alone at the peak.

Time spent with cable and broadcast TV is decreasing, a trend that’s been particularly pronounced over the past year. Streaming accounted for 36.9% of US time spent with TV as of September 2022, up from 27.7% in the same month in 2021, according to Nielsen. Streaming stole share from all other TV categories.

Walmart, TalkShopLive, Qurate expand livestream commerce options to bring in holiday shoppers: But celebrity guests may not be enough to overcome limited consumer adoption and awareness.