After years of rapid gains, ecommerce growth in the UK will level out. By 2024, ecommerce sales growth will stay relatively consistent through 2026 at around 4%—a rate similar to that of brick-and-mortar sales. 

The UK is the second-most advanced country in the world when it comes to ecommerce sales as a proportion of total retail sales. This year, that proportion will stand at 35.9%. Only China will record a higher share, at 45.3%.

That balance had been tipping toward digital significantly before, especially during the pandemic—ecommerce’s share leaped more than 10 percentage points between 2019 and 2020. However, future increases will be much more muted. From 2023 through the end of our forecast period in 2026, ecommerce’s gains in share will be less than a percentage point each year.