From streaming to ad measurement and privacy, 2023 will be a year of transformation. Here are four changes we expect in the new year.
“There will be haves and have nots,” said Walt Disney Co. CEO Bob Iger during an interview with Vox in September 2022. “I don’t think they’ll all make it.”
Former WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar was more specific last month, writing in The Wall Street Journal that he expects “no more than three” entertainment companies to survive the streaming wars.
As platforms consolidate, they’ll wall off content that is currently available across companies. Paramount+, for example, is “still an arms dealer to others,” according to our analyst Ross Benes, speaking at the “Attention! Trends and Predictions for 2023” summit. But in the future, most streamers will focus on securing their own content libraries.
When Spotify introduced audiobooks in September 2022, the platform described itself as an “all-in-one destination for everyone’s listening needs.” Spotify aims to be synonymous with digital audio by investing further in podcasts and audiobooks, building out its ad platform, and attracting digital audio listeners.
Much like Netflix, Spotify still makes the bulk of its revenues (about 80%) from subscriptions rather than ads, but we project ad revenues will grow 30.0% in 2023, and podcast ad revenues in particular will grow 42.0%. This year, Spotify will focus on expanding its ad business and its exclusive audio offerings.
2023 will be the year that the privacy panic sets in as marketers face mounting privacy laws and the approaching deprecation of cookies.
The time to act is now. Ensuring compliance with state privacy laws will only help marketers to prepare for a federal privacy law. And even though 2024 seems a long way away, the countdown is on to find suitable alternatives to third-party cookies.
There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but there are options. Here’s what we think will gain traction in 2023:
According to our forecast, US connected TV (CTV) ad spend will climb 27.2% this year to reach almost $27 billion. Representing just over 7% of total media ad spending, there’s immense room for growth.
But first, we have to address the elephant in the room: measurement.
In 2023, we’ll see marketers try a number of solutions to more accurately measure CTV ad spend:
The bottom line? As CTV ad spend grows, there will be an increasing need for more accurate and transparent measurement. 2023 will have massive opportunities for ad tech and measurement companies to find ways to give marketers better clarity into CTV.
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