Ecommerce sales in Spain will grow faster than any other country in Western Europe in the next three years, propelled by the rise of AliExpress and its continued competition with Amazon to be the go-to marketplace.

We estimate that retail ecommerce sales in Spain will grow 12.5% this year to $31.73 billion. And we expect continued year-over-year growth through the end of the forecasting period, with sales reaching $40.12 billion by 2023.

While there are several significant factors behind this rapid growth, AliExpress’s recent entrance in the region is certainly a key driver. Consumers in Spain are more price-conscious, and marketplaces offer them a more budget-friendly opportunity.

“Given the popularity of the AliExpress marketplace in Spain, the Alibaba Group is using Spain as the jumping-off point to grow its marketplace in Western Europe,” said Peter Vahle, forecasting analyst at eMarketer. “AliExpress has been live in Spain for more than a year, but has made its focus on Spain more obvious this year. It chose Spain for its first physical store in Europe and also announced plans to partner with roughly 10,000 Spanish retailers by 2019, giving AliExpress access to new international markets.”

By setting its sights on Spain, AliExpress is competing with Amazon, the largest ecommerce player in the country. “Non-coincidentally, both marketplaces have something in common: Chinese influence,” Vahle said. “According to data from Marketplace Pulse, China represents more than 50% of active sellers on Amazon.es, which is more than the other EU-5 countries.”

Alibaba also partnered with El Corte Inglés, one of the largest retailers in Spain, to add its products to AliExpress's marketplace. El Corte Inglés is also offering click and collect to AliExpress customers.

Healthy competition between both players isn’t the only thing driving ecommerce growth in Spain. Consumers are also increasingly more comfortable using their mobile devices to shop. We expect retail mcommerce sales in Spain to grow 17.8% this year to $12.06 billion and reach $16.25 billion by 2023.

"As the number of digital buyers in Spain increases at an above-average rate, so does the number of mobile buyers," Vahle said. "As a result, mcommerce in Spain will grow faster than any other country in Western Europe for the next two years."