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Best face forward: True or false? Prestige beauty sales in the US grew faster than mass beauty sales in 2022.
True. In both sales revenues and unit sales, the $27 billion prestige beauty business grew faster than mass beauty last year, according to Circana.
Be direct: US D2C ecommerce sales grew by 21.3% in 2022 to reach $156 billion, according to our forecast. By what percentage do we project they’ll grow this year?
A) -2%
B) 4%
C) 17%
D) 29%
We predict that D2C ecommerce sales will grow 17.3% this year to reach $182.62 billion.
Here comes Peter Cottontail: US consumers will spend an average of how much, per person, on Easter celebrations this year?
A) $134.45
B) $157.03
C) $174.17
D) $192.01
According to the National Retail Federation, US consumers will spend an average of $192.01 per person on Easter this year, the highest figure on record. Collectively, consumer spend will total $24 billion, up from $20.8 billion in 2022.
App-y endings: What percentage of US adults used an app for grocery shopping in January?
A) 25%
B) 32%
C) 42%
D) 49%
According to Morning Consult's "The State of Food and Beverage" report, 42% of US adults used an app to help them shop for groceries in January. Hybrid workers were the most likely to have used an app (59%), followed by adults with children at home (56%), millennials (52%), and Gen Zers (52%).
Clicking into place: US click-and-collect sales will represent what percent of total retail ecommerce sales this year?
A) 8.5%
B) 7.2%
C) 9.0%
D) 6.9%
Click-and-collect sales will remain less than 9% of US retail ecommerce sales through 2026 because shoppers are generally content to wait a couple of days for delivery, according to our “US Click-and-Collect Forecast 2023” report.
Up for grabs: Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a number of sellers have started putting SVB-branded items up for sale on eBay. Which is the most expensive item currently being sold (as of the time of writing)?
A) A wireless speaker
B) A fidget spinner
C) An ugly Christmas sweater
D) A Patagonia vest jacket
According to Business Insider, an SVB-branded Patagonia vest jacket is going for $500. Meanwhile, the starting bid for the ugly Christmas sweater is $400 and the wireless speaker is going for $47. The fidget spinner, a deal, is listed at 99 cents.
Sugar rush: What percentage of US adults say that chocolate produced in the US is “the best in the world?”
A) 15%
B) 9%
C) 23%
D) 2%
According to YouGov, 15% say US chocolate is the best in the world, while 28% say it’s among the best, and 33% say it’s about average. It is not without its critics, though: 6% think it’s among the worst chocolate in the world.
Snack break: What is Gen Z’s favorite US grocery brand?
A) The Kroger Co.
B) Whole Foods Market
C) Trader Joe’s
D) Walmart
Gen Z is most favorable toward Walmart for groceries, according to CivicScience. We’re not surprised, considering Walmart’s been winning consumers amid inflation with its low prices.
For here or to go: True or false? Half of US adults said they are more likely to order restaurant takeout now versus before the pandemic.
False. It’s actually two-thirds, according to a new survey by the National Restaurant Association.
Shopper’s delight: This past holiday season, Chinese etailer Temu burst onto the scene. How did it rank (1–15) against other retailers in terms of unique website visits?
Temu came in at No. 12, with 41.0 million unique visitors in November and December 2022, according to Comscore and Insider Intelligence. To put that into comparison, Macy’s came in at No. 10 with 43.0 million unique visitors.
In the bag: In which country will digital shopper growth grow the most this year?
A) US
B) Indonesia
C) India
D) Brazil
India, with 4.8% growth, according to our forecast. For contrast, the US will see 1.1% growth.
Growth spurt: True or false? Temu’s number of unique US visitors increased by nearly nine times between September and December 2022.
True. The number of Temu’s unique US visitors grew from 5.1 million in September to 44.5 million in December, according to Comscore Media Metrix Multi-Platform. Temu is attracting visitors with its shockingly low prices, aggressive paid advertising, and high visibility on TikTok.
Sales slowdown: Total ecommerce growth will slow to 8.0% in China this year. Other channels will grow faster, however.
Place these in order of sales growth: Retail livestreaming ecommerce, livestreaming social commerce, and retail social commerce.
1. Livestreaming social commerce (23.0%), 2. retail livestreaming ecommerce (19.0%), and 3. retail social commerce (13.2%), according to our forecasts.
For your consideration: Which type of advertising are Gen Z adults most likely to pay attention to?
A) TV
B) Social media
C) Online
D) Outdoor
According to CivicScience, Gen Z adults are most likely to pay attention to ads on social media, followed by TV, online, and outdoor. The ad format Gen Z is least likely to pay attention to? Magazines.
Sour grapes: True or false? The majority of grocers and wholesalers said they were not confident in the economy going into 2023.
True. Fifty-six percent of grocery and wholesale respondents were pessimistic about the economy, according to a survey by Supermarket News. That’s an increase from the 44% who said they weren’t confident in the economy going into 2022.
Mixed messages: 71% of brands and retailers in the US and the UK believe they excel at personalization in their marketing efforts compared to what percent of consumers?
A) 63%
B) 57%
C) 41%
D) 34%
Just over one-third of consumers say that brands and retailers are excelling in their marketing personalization efforts, according to Coresight Research.
The new normal: Which category do the most US adults say they plan to continue their normal spending on in 2023? Hint: If you read yesterday’s newsletter, you already know the answer.
A) Health and beauty
B) Apparel
C) Home and gardening
D) Electricals
Forty-four percent of US adults plan to spend their normal amount on health and beauty products this year, according to a MetaPack survey. More than two-thirds said they’re not changing their spending on apparel (39%) or on DIY and gardening (34%).
It’s a deal: What percentage of consumers who shop around for deals on food and beverage products say they use ads to stay informed of deals?
A) 36.6%
B) 43.2%
C) 51.8%
D) 58.2%
Over half of consumers stay informed about food and beverage deals via ads, according to a survey by Attest. Promotional emails and mailings are also effective for reaching bargain hunters.
Print royalty: How many copies did Prince Harry’s memoir, “Spare,” sell in its first week?
A) 342,079
B) 629,300
C) 712,034
D) 831,300
Over 629,000 copies of “Spare” were sold in its first week on shelves, per The NPD Group. This earned it the title of the third-fastest-selling adult nonfiction book since 2004, behind Barack Obama’s “A Promised Land” and Michelle Obama’s “Becoming.” Not too shabby, Harry.
Fascinating: What year was the safety pin invented?
A) 1743
B) 1825
C) 1849
D) 1902
In 1848, New York City inventor Walter Hunt was absentmindedly twisting brass wire when he noticed that if he coiled one section, the coil would create tension and the wire would spring back. Retail Brew explores the history of the safety pin and how it has transcended from utilitarian object to fashion accessory and political statement.
Ship happens: Which of the following is the most important shipping feature to US adults?
A) Environmental impact
B) Cost
C) Speed
D) Predictability
According to Morning Consult, 57% of US consumers say that cost is the most important consideration in shipping decisions. This makes it almost three times more important than the second-most important factor, speed.
A nice cup of joe: Starbucks is launching a line of coffee infused with what?
A) Olive oil
B) Whiskey
C) Cannabis
D) Maple syrup
The company’s new olive oil-infused Oleato drinks will launch in Italy first before coming to the US in the spring. Starbucks interim CEO Howard Schultz calls the new line a “game-changer.”
A billion reasons: True or false? The Home Depot will spend $1 billion more to give its hourly employees a raise.
True. The retailer has about 475,000 employees, the majority of whom are hourly. Retailers like The Home Depot are struggling to attract and retain workers.
The picture of health. Post’s latest cereal offering aims to help consumers:
A) Improve their digestive system
B) Have more energy
C) Boost brain health
D) Sleep better
The days of counting sheep may be over. Post’s new Sweet Dreams cereal contains zinc, folic acid, B vitamins, and “a nighttime herbal blend,” which, according to the company, “support natural melatonin production.”
Good as new: Gen Z adults are most open to trying new brands in which of the following categories?
A) Apparel, shoes, and accessories
B) Home furnishings and appliances
C) Groceries and household items
D) Beauty and personal care products
E) Personal electronics
According to Morning Consult, 42% of Gen Zers report they make an effort to try new apparel, shoe, and accessory brands. On the flip side, Gen Z consumers are least likely to try new brands in the personal electronics category, where Apple dominates brand preferences.
Playing chicken: What is Chick-fil-A’s newest sandwich made of?
A) Chicken
B) Beef
C) Cauliflower
D) Plant-based chicken
The quick-service restaurant chain said its guests wanted more vegetables in their diets, so Chick-fil-A crafted a sandwich using a “tender filet cut” of cauliflower marinated and breaded in the chain’s seasoning. The new offering is also served with pickles, for all you pickle lovers out there.
Bon voyage: By how much did the US travel accessories market grow in 2022?
A) 7%
B) 9%
C) 12%
D) 16%
As travel rebounded in 2022, US sales of travel accessories (including luggage, backpacks, duffle bags, fanny and chest packs, garment bags, and toiletry cases) grew 16% YoY to reach $7.6 billion, according to The NPD Group.
Shop till you drop: Amazon was the most downloaded shopping app in the US in 2022, with 47 million downloads. What came in second?
A) Shein
B) Walmart
C) Fetch
D) Etsy
Shein, with 40 million downloads, according to Apptopia. Walmart came in third (32 million) and Fetch came in fourth (23 million).
Merch lurch: How much money does adidas expect to lose because it is unable to sell Ye’s (Kanye West’s) Yeezy merchandise?
A) $500 million
B) $850 million
C) $1 billion
D) $1.3 billion
As a result of his antisemitic remarks, adidas ended its nine-year partnership with the rapper last October. Now, the company expects to lose $1.3 billion in revenues this year because it isn’t able to sell the remaining stock of clothing and shoes, per CNN.
Fast food: True or false? Chipotle missed analysts’ expectations for earnings and revenues in Q4 2022.
True, marking the first time since Q3 2017. Other quick-service restaurant brands saw higher-income shoppers trading down to fast food and lower-income diners looking for deals. This led to Taco Bell seeing an 11% YoY same-store sales increase in Q4 2022. Chipotle, which has a higher price point than Taco Bell and other fast-food brands, has raised its prices 13.5% since Q4 2021.
Setting the tone: Which type of TV commercial resonates the most with Gen Z?
A) Funny
B) Emotional
C) Visually compelling
D) Informative
According to CivicScience, 36% of US Gen Z consumers say they respond to funny commercials more than any other type of TV ad. Gen Z also prefers commercials that are informative (21%) or have good music in them (18%).
Shopping with a purpose: Which generation’s adults most prefer to purchase from companies that reflect their social values in the US?
A) Baby boomers
B) Gen X
C) Millennials
D) Gen Z adults
It’s a close one, but Gen X is slightly ahead of other generations at 61%, according to Morning Consult. Both baby boomers and millennials come in at 59% while Gen Z adults come in at 56%.
Mirror, mirror: How much did US prestige beauty sales grow by in 2022?
A) 10%
B) 12%
C) 15%
D) 17%
Sales of US prestige beauty products grew 15% year over year to reach $27.1 billion in 2022, according to The NPD Group. The category was the fastest-growing industry segment tracked by NPD and IRI.
Cup of Joe: Which of the following is true regarding Starbucks’ fourth-quarter earnings?
A) US customers bought a record $3.3 billion in gift cards last holiday season
B) US same-store sales grew 10%
C) US loyalty membership grew 15% year over year
D) More than 1,800 Chinese cafes were forced to close following a spike in COVID-19 cases
All of the above. Starbucks’ revenues and earnings fell short of analyst expectations after weak international results.
Shoppers’ delight: Which grocery chain came in first for dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index for 2022?
A) Amazon
B) Costco Wholesale
C) Wegmans
D) H-E-B
The Texas-based H-E-B knocked Amazon off the top spot. Amazon fell to third behind Costco, with Wegmans coming in fourth. The dunnhumby survey collects data from more than 40,000 consumers on a retailer's value proposition in five categories: price, promotions, and rewards; speed and convenience; quality; digital; and operations.
Add some sparkle: Approximately how much do US consumers plan to spend on jewelry this Valentine’s Day?
A) $4.3 billion
B) $5.5 billion
C) $5.9 billion
D) $6.3 billion
According to the National Retail Federation, 21% of consumers will buy jewelry this Valentine’s Day, with total consumer spend reaching over $5.5 billion. Jewelry is the fifth most popular gift choice, behind candy (57%), greeting cards (40%), flowers (37%), and an evening out (32%).
Pop quiz: How much did retail media ad prices drop last year?
A) 8%
B) 10%
C) 12%
D) 14%
Retail media ad rates are down 12% over the past year. Retail media cost per click went from $1.02 in Q3 2021 to $0.90 in Q3 2022, according to the latest data from Skai. In recent quarters, average pricing dipped from a high of $1.07 in Q4 2021.
Some big shoes to fill: How tall is the L.L.Bean boot sculpture at its flagship store in Freeport, Maine?
A) 10 feet
B) 16 feet
C) 18 feet
D) 25 feet
The 16-foot boot is just one of many attractions at the company’s flagship store. Others include a 3,500-gallon fish tank, an indoor trout pond, and an in-store restaurant.
L.L.Bean just announced it’s undergoing a multiyear, $50 million renovation of the Freeport campus. Who knows what features are to come.
How may I help you? What was the top factor marketers said contributed to providing a successful customer experience?
A) Resolving a customer’s problems/issues
B) Connecting with customers in real time
C) Offering personalized experiences
D) Collecting and using customer feedback
Fifty-seven percent said fixing consumers’ problems was the top factor, according to Ascend2. Connecting in real time came in second at 45% and personalized experiences rounded out the top three at 40%.
Which region do we predict will have the largest retail sales growth in 2023?
A) Asia-Pacific
B) Latin America
C) Middle East and Africa
D) North America
We predict the Middle East and Africa will see 6.0% growth this year. Asia-Pacific comes in second at 5.1%, followed by Latin America in third with 4.8% and North America in fourth with 3.1%.
Dine and dash: What percentage of US restaurant workers say they won’t be in the industry in a year?
A) 8%
B) 17%
C) 27%
D) 33%
Nearly 1 in 4 plan on leaving the food service industry, with 46% citing pay as the biggest contributor to job satisfaction, according to a survey by Kuru Footwear.
Which three generations will represent 80% of global luxury purchases by 2030?
A) Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z
B) Baby Boomers, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha
C) Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha
D) Baby Boomers, Millennials, and Gen Alpha
The three youngest generations will account for four-fifths of all global luxury purchases by 2030, per Bain & Company.
Stay tuned for more on the luxury category tomorrow.
By how much did retail media’s impressions increase in the third quarter of 2022?
A) 35%
B) 48%
C) 53%
D) 61%
In addition to impressions increasing, cost per click decreased 12% year over year, according to Skai.
True or false? Alibaba’s retail ecommerce sales in China were nearly twice that of Amazon’s worldwide in 2022.
True. Alibaba’s total retail ecommerce sales hit $1.229 trillion compared to Amazon’s $657.02 billion, per our estimates. These differences can be attributed to marketplace size. We estimate that China accounts for 50% of global ecommerce sales, while the US, Amazon’s biggest market, makes up about 18%.
By how much do we predict US ecommerce resale volume to increase in 2023?
A) 6.6%
B) 7.5%
C) 9.1%
D) 10.2%
After a 6.6% drop in 2022, we’ll see a 7.5% spike this year to reach $82.78 billion, according to our forecast. Non-ecommerce resale volume will also grow by 7.8% to reach $28.14 billion this year.
Think fast: What was the click-to-door speed for Amazon in July 2022?
A) 1.9 days
B) 2.6 days
C) 3.0 days
D) 3.1 days
Amazon’s delivery speed was 1.9 days in July 2022, slightly up over April’s 1.8 days. That’s a drop from January’s 3.0. How did non-Amazon retailers fare? Their click-to-door speed was 4.4 days in July 2022.
How much will worldwide transaction payment value on PayPal and PayPal-enabled platforms grow this year?
A) 2.3%
B) 4.8%
C) 7.9%
D) 8.9%
That growth will bring transaction payment value to $1.520 trillion. Worldwide core PayPal users will also reach 201.2 million this year, making up 3.3% of the global population.
Which luxury handbag brand was the top searched by Gen Z in 2022 on resale site Fashionphile?
A) Hermès
B) Louis Vuitton
C) Balenciaga
D) Prada
Balenciaga was the most searched by Gen Z consumers according to Fashionphile’s “2022 Ultra-Luxury Resale Report.” (We wonder, did the fashion brand’s scandal in December help or hurt it?)
Millennials sought out Prada and Gen X searched for Hermès while baby boomers kept it classic with Louis Vuitton.
US grocery ecommerce for December 2022 reached $9.1 billion in sales, a 2.4% increase year over year. Which category accounted for the most sales?
A) Pickup (including in-store, curbside, lockers, and drive up)
B) Delivery (including first- and third-party providers)
C) Ship-to-home (including common and other parcel carriers)
Pickup brought in $4.4 billion, nearly half of the month’s total sales, according to Brick Meets Click and Mercatus.
Which grocery delivery intermediary is the US’s second-largest, capturing nearly 11% of total US digital grocery sales this year?
A) Instacart
B) DoorDash
C) Uber
D) Shipt
While Instacart remains the king of grocery delivery, capturing 73.0% of US digital grocery sales this year, DoorDash is growing its share to 10.9%. Uber is growing its share as well, hitting 7.2% of total US digital grocery sales in 2023.
True or false? Ecommerce will make up the larger part of returns this year.
False. Non-ecommerce returns will make up 66.2% of returns in 2023 to ecommerce’s 33.8%, according to our forecast. But the gap is shrinking. Ecommerce returns will grow 4.2% this year to non-ecommerce’s 1.2% growth.
How many millions of vinyl albums were sold in the week ending December 22, 2022?
A) 1.45 million
B) 2.04 million
C) 2.32 million
D) 3.19 million
According to data from Luminate, 2.32 million vinyl records were sold in the second to last week of the year, the single-largest sales week for vinyl albums since 1991, per Billboard.
Let’s talk shop: Which grocery category has the highest ecommerce sales penetration in the US?
A) Health and personal care
B) Pet products
C) Food and beverage
Pet products with 36% ecommerce penetration in 2022. Health and personal care came second at 16.5% while food and beverage came in fourth at 5.5%. Total grocery ecommerce penetration was 9.9%.
True or false? The No. 1 reason that US and UK consumers return their online purchases is because the products are damaged or defective.
False. The majority (55%) of US and UK consumers return items because they are the incorrect size, a bad fit, or not the right color. Slightly less (48%) return items because they are damaged or defective.
Which of the following ecommerce giants has the largest market share in its respective market?
A) Alibaba (China)
B) Amazon (US)
C) Mercado Libre (Latin America)
Alibaba, by a hair, at 40.7% in 2023, per our forecasts. Amazon will reach 38.7% market share, with Mercado Libre coming in at 21.6%.
Which of the following foods is not a sponsor of a college football bowl game this season?
A) Idaho Potato
B) Cheez-It
C) Duke’s Mayo
D) Sugar
Trick play: All of these are bowl games. The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl was December 20, there are two Cheez-It-sponsored bowls on December 29 and January 2, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl is December 30, and the Sugar Bowl is December 31.
US millionaires are cutting back on holiday spending due to inflation, according to a new poll by CNBC. Which generation’s millionaires are cutting back the most?
Millennials, with 100% saying they are cutting back on holiday spending. The least likely are baby boomers at 78%.
Which product category will make up over 78% of Amazon’s ecommerce sales this year?
A) Computer and consumer electronics
B) Books, music, and video
C) Office equipment and supplies
D) Toys and hobby
The books, music, and video category will account for 78.5% of Amazon’s ecommerce sales this year, followed by computer and consumer electronics (50.3%), office equipment and supplies (47.0%), and toys and hobby (39.0%).
Amazon will account for 38.2% of all US ecommerce sales this year, per our estimates.
True or false? US direct-to-consumer (D2C) ecommerce sales will increase next year.
True. We predict sales will increase from $155.69 billion in 2022 to $182.62 billion in 2023. Sales growth, however, will slow, declining from a 21.3% growth in 2022 to 17.3% in 2023. But D2C ecommerce sales will make up slightly more in total ecommerce sales in 2023, rising to 15.5% in 2023 from 15.1% in 2022.
By what percentage will the UK’s total retail ecommerce sales grow in 2023?
A) 0%
B) 0.7%
C) 1.6%
D) 2.3%
We predict just a 2.3% rebound off of 2022’s substantial decline, to reach $195.97 billion.
Which of the following isn’t one of Datassential’s flavors and ingredients to watch for 2023?
A) Yuzu
B) Birria
C) Black salt
D) Soju
E) Spicy maple
Black salt is sooo last year. No, really, it is. Other flavors and ingredients to look out for next year include mangonada, ube, new mushrooms and related snacks, salsa macha, London fog, and ranch water.
How much did online prices decrease in November?
A) 0.8%
B) 1.2%
C) 1.5%
D) 1.9%
According to the Adobe Digital Price Index, online prices fell nearly 2% year over year in November, marking the third month of declines in a row. Discounts during the Cyber Five helped drive down prices.
True or false? We project total US ecommerce sales to pass $1 trillion for the first time in 2023.
False, but not entirely. We do expect US ecommerce sales to be over $1 trillion in 2023, but that milestone will happen for the first time this year, according to our forecast.
How much will the US women’s extended-size market grow in 2022?
A) 5%
B) 7%
C) 9%
D) 11%
According to Coresight Research, the US women’s extended-size market will grow to $42 billion by the end of this year from $39 billion in 2021, a 9% increase year over year. This will represent over 23% of the total women’s apparel market in 2022.
True or false? US credit card fraud losses will grow faster than retail overall.
True, according to our new “US Card Payment Fraud Losses Forecast 2022” report. Fraud loss will reach $13.73 billion in 2024.
What is the most preferred retail format for US holiday shoppers this year?
A) Mass merchants
B) Online-only retailers
C) Off-price
D) Department stores
E) Warehouse clubs
According to Deloitte, 56% of US consumers prefer online-only retailers for their holiday shopping, followed by mass merchants (49%) and off-price retailers (26%). Department stores and warehouse clubs are tied with 25% of consumers favoring each.
What percentage of the US population will use a smart wearable next year?
A) 12.2%
B) 15.7%
C) 20.1%
D) 26.4%
Just over 1 in 4 people in the US will use a smart wearable next year, or 89.6 million people, according to our forecast.
How many times were the top 10 ultrafast delivery apps downloaded in the first quarter of 2022?
A) 19.4 million times
B) 21.9 million times
C) 23.1 million times
D) 24.3 million times
The top 10 apps in this space were downloaded 23.1 million times collectively in Q1 2022, according to Apptopia. Getir leads by a wide margin, ahead of rivals like Gopuff and Gorillas. In the third quarter, downloads fell to 10.3 million.
Besides Amazon, what is the only other retail media ad business we predict will net more than $1 billion this year?
A) Walmart
B) Instacart
C) Etsy
D) eBay
We predict Walmart will bring in $2.22 billion in US digital ad revenues this year, coming in second among retail media networks with 5.9% share of retail media ad spend this year.
True or false? Younger generations are more likely to opt out of apparel subscription services than older generations in 2022.
True. According to CivicScience, the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds using these services dropped from 51% last year to 43% this year. Similarly, usage among 25- to 34-year-olds also dropped from 45% to 33%. Meanwhile, usage among 35- to 54-year-olds and those ages 55 and older slightly increased.
Which country is poised to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030?
A) India
B) Germany
C) Japan
D) Russia
According to estimates by S&P Global and Morgan Stanley, India will overtake Japan and Germany to become the third-largest economy by 2030. Morgan Stanley says conditions like offshoring, manufacturing investments, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure will all help fuel the economic boom.
How many more shoppers hit the store (either online or in-person) this Cyber Five when compared to last year?
A) 10 million
B) 15 million
C) 20 million
D) 25 million
According to the National Retail Federation, 20 million more people shopped this year, to reach 196.7 million people. Find out more holiday shopping trends in our recap.
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