China Ecommerce Forecast 2022

Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Bright Spots amid Historically Low Growth

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About This Report
Challenging macroeconomic conditions have ushered in an era of more modest spending growth in China. But the outlook remains positive in spaces that are capturing consumer interest and demand—like live commerce and digital groceries.
Table of Contents

Executive Summary

The days of perennial standout ecommerce growth in China are over. But emerging retail categories and channels continue to thrive in ways unique to the country. Retailers can leverage these pockets of growth if they get ahead of mounting regulations and shifting consumer behaviors.

3 KEY QUESTIONS THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER

  1. What’s the outlook for total retail and ecommerce sales in China this year?
  2. What are the latest estimates for livestreaming ecommerce sales and digital grocery sales in China?
  3. How many new digital buyers will come online this year, and what are the trends for existing buyers?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest forecast for China’s retail sales, retail sales by product category, retail ecommerce, livestreaming ecommerce, grocery ecommerce, digital buyers, and ecommerce by company.

KEY STAT: China’s ecommerce sales will increase by 9.1% this year, the lowest growth since we began our tracking in 2008. However, total new spending will still be huge: China’s digital buyers will shell out $240.13 billion more than in 2021.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  4. Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Decline to Single Digits
  1. Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Silver Linings
  2. Macroeconomic Conditions Weigh on China’s ‘Big Three’ Ecommerce Platforms
  3. Where Are the Digital Buyers?
  4. What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers in China?
  1. Read Next
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Jade Appel
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Man-Chung Cheung
Senior Researcher
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