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The forecast: Following a year of lockdown-related growth in 2020, retail ecommerce sales in Western Europe will continue to rise through 2025. By the end of next year, ecommerce sales will account for 14.8% of total retail sales in the region and hit nearly $660 billion.
This is a significant upward revision from our previous forecast, which estimated that ecommerce sales soared by 26.3% in 2020 and would remain below $580 billion in 2022.
Ecommerce’s share of retail sales has risen dramatically since the onset of the pandemic, jumping from 10.1% in 2019 to 13.4% in 2020. That figure will grow to 14.4% this year.
The pandemic led retailers to quickly build out infrastructure to support the increase in ecommerce sales. The advent of this infrastructure, in turn, has accelerated Western Europe’s shift toward ecommerce.
As much as it grew in 2020, ecommerce will make up a smaller share of retail sales in Western Europe this year than in Asia-Pacific (where that share will hit 29.6%) or in North America (where it will be 15.2%).
Looking ahead: Retail ecommerce will continue to grow in Western Europe, both in total sales and as a share of the overall retail market. Three years from now, digital sales will cross the $700 billion mark, and in 2025, they will make up $758.46 billion or 15.9% of Western Europe’s retail sales.