Products

EMARKETER delivers leading-edge research to clients in a variety of forms, including full-length reports and data visualizations to equip you with actionable takeaways for better business decisions.
PRO+
New data sets, deeper insights, and flexible data visualizations.
Learn More
Reports
In-depth analysis, benchmarks and shorter spotlights on digital trends.
Learn More
Forecasts
Interactive projections with 10k+ metrics on market trends, & consumer behavior.
Learn More
Charts
Proprietary data and over 3,000 third-party sources about the most important topics.
Learn More
Industry KPIs
Industry benchmarks for the most important KPIs in digital marketing, advertising, retail and ecommerce.
Learn More
Briefings
Client-only email newsletters with analysis and takeaways from the daily news.
Learn More
Analyst Access Program
Exclusive time with the thought leaders who craft our research.
Learn More

About EMARKETER

Our goal is to unlock digital opportunities for our clients with the world’s most trusted forecasts, analysis, and benchmarks. Spanning five core coverage areas and dozens of industries, our research on digital transformation is exhaustive.
Our Story
Learn more about our mission and how EMARKETER came to be.
Learn More
Methodology
Rigorous proprietary data vetting strips biases and produces superior insights.
Learn More
Our People
Take a look into our corporate culture and view our open roles.
Join the Team
Contact Us
Speak to a member of our team to learn more about EMARKETER.
Contact Us
Newsroom
See our latest press releases, news articles or download our press kit.
Learn More
Advertising & Sponsorship Opportunities
Reach an engaged audience of decision-makers.
Learn More
Events
Browse our upcoming and past events, recent podcasts, and other featured resources.
Learn More
Podcasts
Tune in to EMARKETER's daily, weekly, and monthly podcasts.
Learn More

Future of Retail 2021

10 Trends that Will Shape the Year Ahead

Download
Share
About This Report
The retail industry is transforming at both physical stores and in digital. This report examines 10 trends that will most shape retail in the year ahead.
Table of Contents

Executive Summary

The coronavirus pandemic has caused retailers to retool their operational, merchandising, and marketing strategies to align with consumers’ changing shopping habits. When things return to normal, the realignment of retail will have lasting effects.

How much will US consumers spend on retail and ecommerce in 2021?

Following a dip in 2020, we forecast that total retail sales growth will begin to recover in 2021, rising 2.3% to $5.630 trillion. On the heels of outsized 32.4% growth in 2020, ecommerce sales growth will moderate to 6.1%. Brick-and-mortar retail sales will rebound from a 3.2% decline in 2020 to a 1.6% gain in 2021.

Which retailers are best positioned for 2021?

Amazon’s leadership will continue, while big-box retailers like Walmart, Target, The Home Depot, and Best Buy will extend their omnichannel momentum. Digital-first retailers like Instacart, Peloton, and Etsy will build on their pandemic-driven gains, while forward-looking brands like Nike and Lululemon will continue to successfully transition to digital and direct-to-consumer (D2C) models.

Which innovations will reshape physical retail?

Brick-and-mortar retail will incorporate digitally enabled technologies to make stores more experiential and frictionless. Click and collect, cashierless checkout, contactless payment, and digital signage will streamline in-store transactions. Increased emphasis on atmosphere and community-driven experiences will make retail more inviting.

Which advancements will influence how consumers shop online?

Social commerce will play a bigger role in brand and product discovery for discretionary goods. Growing familiarity with grocery ecommerce will push this habit forward. “Buy now, pay later” adoption will make purchases more affordable in a strained consumer economy.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report looks at our 2021 US retail and ecommerce sales forecast, highlighting 10 key trends representing the most significant shifts in retail and consumer behavior next year.

KEY STAT: Total US retail sales are expected to grow 2.3% to $5.630 trillion in 2021.

Here’s what’s in the full report

2files

Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

27charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

11expert perspectives

Insights from industry and company leaders.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Themes Influencing the 2021 Retail Landscape
  3. eMarketer’s 2021 Retail and Ecommerce Forecast
  4. No. 1: D2C Brands Riding the Ecommerce Wave Will Encounter Stiffer Competition from Established Brands
  5. No. 2: Media and Commerce Will Converge as Checkout Attaches to Shoppable Content
  6. No. 3: Click-and-Collect Momentum Will Drive Market Share Gains for Big-Box Retailers
  1. No. 4: Grocery Ecommerce Gains Will Evolve from Trial to Habit Formation
  2. No. 5: Retail Media Trio Will Disrupt the Duopoly’s Digital Ad Market Dominance
  3. No. 6: Premium Subscriptions Will Drive Cross-Channel Loyalty for Leading Retail Brands
  4. No. 7: Digital Fitness Will Emerge as a Megatrend, as Aspirational Brands Segue into Consumer Health Market
  5. No. 8: Next-Gen Marketplaces Will Leverage the Economics of Scarcity to Forge New Flywheels
  6. No. 9: Frictionless ‘Stores of the Future’ Will Land and Expand
  1. No. 10: ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Options Will Hit an Inflection Point amid Strained Discretionary Budgets
  2. Key Takeaways
  3. Insider Intelligence Interviews
  4. Read Next
  5. Sources
  6. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Interviewed for This Report

Arsen Avakian
Cooler Screens
Co-Founder and CEO
Interviewed November 13, 2020
Jon Chang
Klarna
Global Head of Shopper Growth Marketing
Interviewed December 2, 2020
Moksha Fitzgibbons
NTWRK
President
Interviewed October 16, 2020
Dan Frommer
The New Consumer
Founder and Editor-in-Chief
Interviewed November 19, 2020
Guru Hariharan
CommerceIQ
CEO
Interviewed November 13, 2020
Juozas Kaziukėnas
Marketplace Pulse
Founder and CEO
Interviewed November 17, 2020
Elliot Mustoe
Brooklinen
Growth Marketing Manager
Interviewed November 23, 2020
Katie Puris
TikTok
Managing Director, Global Head of Business Marketing
Interviewed October 15, 2020
Randall Rothenberg
Interactive Advertising Bureau
Executive Chair
Interviewed November 17, 2020
Nich Weinheimer
Kenshoo
General Manager, Ecommerce
Interviewed November 6, 2020
Deborah Weinswig
Coresight Research
Founder and CEO
Interviewed December 15, 2020

authors

Andrew Lipsman

Contributors

Bianca Carasus
Researcher
Jasmine Enberg
Senior Analyst
Rimma Kats
Executive Editor
Lucy Koch
Junior Analyst
Cindy Liu
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Amy Rotondo
Research Manager, US
Yoram Wurmser
Principal Analyst
Already have a subscription?Sign In

Access All Charts and Data

Gain access to reliable data presented in clear and intelligible displays for quick understanding and decision making on the most important topics related to your industry

Become a Client