US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to $18.64 billion for the 2023–2024 TV season, a downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast. It will rise slightly for the 2024–2025 season but remain nearly flat with the 2016–2017 figure of $18.46 billion, indicating a market that has stopped growing on the linear side as dollars shift to digital video.
A note on our upfront TV ad spending forecast: Estimating upfront spending as a function of total TV spending is an inexact science, since our upfront forecast is based on the seasonal year for TV programming—which starts in the fall—and our TV forecast is based on calendar years. Also, the upfront forecast is limited to national spending, while our TV forecast also encompasses local ads.
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