US holiday ecommerce sales will grow just 2.5%

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US ecommerce holiday sales will increase by 2.5% this year, an underwhelming figure compared with 8.6% growth in 2021 and a 33.0% surge in 2020.

Beyond the chart: Adobe estimates US consumers will spend $209.7 billion in ecommerce across November and December—more conservative than our forecast of $239.26 billion, with 12.0% growth year over year.

While cash-strapped consumers are hesitant to open their wallets, the slowdown is also due to a cooling effect after 2020’s boom. Additionally, Amazon and Walmart pulled demand forward with their October sales events, which took a bite out of holiday season ecommerce.

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Read yesterday’s Chart of the Day here.

Methodology: Data is from an October 2022 Adobe report titled "Holiday Shopping Forecast." Data is based on the analysis of over one trillion visits to sites and over 100 million SKUs. Adobe Analytics measures transactions from 80 of the top 100 US online retailers.