Retail ecommerce sales at Walmart, including Sam's Club, will reach $67.39 billion in 2021, per our forecast.

Overall, Walmart will represent 7.2% of all US ecommerce sales in 2021 and will further widen its gap with eBay, who’s in third place among the companies we forecast. Walmart is in second place.

Sales in Q1 rose faster than expected thanks to government stimulus checks that stoked spending in nonfood categories, including recreation, home improvement, and apparel. What’s more, the company remains upbeat about Q2 and expects stimulus spending and overall economic recovery to continue to benefit general merchandise categories.

By and large, online groceries are an integral part of Walmart’s digital growth. “Over the past year, consumers turned to the retailer for stocking up on household supplies and shopping for groceries online,” said Cindy Liu, eMarketer forecasting director at Insider Intelligence.

But it’s not the only thing that’s driving growth. Walmart’s popular curbside pickup service contributes as well, and we expect it will continue to represent a larger portion of the company's sales. Walmart is already looking at making this service more seamless for future shopping needs. Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal reported that Walmart was phasing out its automated in-store pickup towers to focus more on curbside. And in a statement to the Journal, a Walmart spokesperson said, "The customer told us they want one pickup spot, and they want that pickup spot to be outside."

According to Liu, "For Walmart, 2021 is not the time to hit the brakes on grocery ecommerce, especially with Amazon, Target, and Instacart at its heels. Services like curbside pickup, drone delivery, and new Walmart+ prescription benefits are investments the company is making in hopes to retain its existing customer base so they don’t migrate to other retailers.”