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In the US, Twitter will lose 1.4 million monthly users between 2022 and 2026. Many of those defectors will be people who joined in the initial years of the pandemic—for updates on COVID-19 and the 2020 presidential election—but are leaving out of news fatigue or in pursuit of other content.
Beyond the chart: Adding to Twitter’s headache, of course, is Elon Musk and his efforts to cancel the buyout, on the grounds that bot accounts could be more prevalent than publicly disclosed. Our estimates exclude any fake, duplicate, or business accounts by drawing primarily from consumer survey data. While Twitter is pursuing legal action to block Musk from backing out, it’ll need to make major changes to keep users from doing the same.
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