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Key stat: From Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, YouTube’s costs per thousand (CPMs) ranged from $13.03 to $15.34—a swing of $2.31, according to our forecast.

Beyond the chart:

• YouTube’s connected TV (CTV) business will make up less than 40% of its overall ad business in 2023, so its CPM average is driven down by the generally lower rates for mobile and desktop video, according to our Streaming Service CPMs 2023 report.
• YouTube is creating the capabilities to buy ads that exclusively target its TikTok rival, YouTube Shorts, according to AdExchanger.
• YouTube has been in the news for allegedly misleading advertisers on where it places video ads, according to The Wall Street Journal citing a study by Adalytics, which could make advertisers wary of its offerings.

Use this chart:

• Assess YouTube ad-buying strategy.
• Evaluate CTV ad budgets.

More like this:

• Netflix Basic With Ads turns 1 this month. Here are all the new ad formats and a look at the tier’s health
• YouTube TV subscribers jumped nearly 50% in a year thanks to Sunday Ticket
• YouTube users cry foul after ad blockers ban and Premium price hike
• Lessons from YouTube in how generative AI is changing the creator economy

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions, historical trends of the advertising market, historical trends of each medium in relation to other media, reported revenues from major ad publishers, estimates from other research firms, data from first-party benchmark sources, consumer media consumption trends, consumer device usage trends, and Insider Intelligence interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, media publishers, and other industry leaders. YouTube user forecast is based on the analysis of survey and traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies; Google company releases; historical trends; internet and mobile adoption trends; and country-specific demographic and socioeconomic factors.