Executive Preview
After two turbulent years, retail sales growth will slow in 2022 before returning to pre-pandemic levels next year. Ecommerce sales growth will fall below 10% this year, its lowest rate since 2009. In-store spending will see stronger-than-typical growth for another year as consumers continue returning to physical locations. Despite the slowdown, ecommerce sales will hit $1 trillion for the first time in the US.
What’s in the full report?
The full “US Ecommerce Forecast 2022” report contains our latest forecast for total retail and ecommerce sales in the US from 2022 to 2026. The report also includes a ranking of the top 15 ecommerce retailers, the performance of select product categories, and digital buyer trends.
3 questions the full report answers:
- What is the outlook for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales in the US this year through 2026?
- Which are the top retailers, and how will they fare in 2022?
- How will each product category perform this year, and which will continue to grow through 2026?
What are some key takeaways from the report?
- In 2022, US ecommerce sales growth will slow to just 9.4% year over year—the slowest growth rate since 2009—but ecommerce sales will cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
- Digital buyer growth will stagnate, as 90% of digital shoppers are already digital buyers. The US will continue to add fewer than 5 million digital buyers every year for the next five years, for an overall growth rate of less than 2%.
- Mcommerce sales—which include sales made on smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices—will grow faster than retail sales transacted on desktops/laptops through 2026. We expect mcommerce sales to account for 40.0% of total retail sales in 2023.
Who is this report for, and why do you need it?
This report is critical for any retail and/or brand strategists looking to size up the US market and understand the consumer trends taking hold over the next few years.
Retailers have had to deal with a litany of challenges over the past 20 months. While we forecast strong overall retail sales for 2022, ecommerce sales growth will see a slight deceleration before returning to near pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and beyond.
To help you strategize and bolster future success despite an uncertain economic outlook, our full “US Ecommerce Forecast 2022” report contains 9 data-packed charts, 5 exportable files, and our estimates for the following areas: Total Retail Sales, Retail Ecommerce Sales by Product Category, Retail Ecommerce Sales by Device, Retail Mcommerce Sales, Digital Buyers by Demographic, and Top 15 Retailers by Retail Ecommerce Sales.
Our US forecast is based upon the analysis of 7,696 data points from 249 sources—including estimates from third-party research sources, retail industry sources, and government releases covering macro-level economic conditions—and incorporates retail ecommerce sales data and revenues as reported by major online retailers in the US.
