- Worldwide Ecommerce Sales are projected to top $7 trillion in 2025, even as sales subsidize following a two-year boom.
- Yearly percentage growth in retail ecommerce sales is projected to decrease in coming years, but it will make up more of the total percent of retail sales.
- The following is a preview of Global Ecommerce Forecast 2022. You can purchase this report here.
Worldwide retail ecommerce sales will top $5 trillion for the first time in 2022, even as spending subsidizes following the surge over the previous two years.
These projections also place worldwide retail commerce sales on track to top $7 billion in 2025.
The data reveals two notable ecommerce trends: the yearly percentage change will decrease following the recent surge, while the percentage of total retail sales will increase.
The 2020 calendar year–featuring the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic–saw retail ecommerce sales surge by 26.4% to $4.248 trillion and total 17.9% of retail sales.
This past year featured a 16.3% rise to $4.938 trillion, while maintaining 19% of total retail sales.
The 2022 projections call for $5.542 billion in retail ecommerce sales, just a 12.2% rise. This is less than half the average over the past 10 years. Last year marked the first time the yearly growth did not top 20% dating to the beginning of the data collection in 2011.
However, that $603.68 billion hike is still one of the largest leaps ever from year to year and outpaces every yearly growth from 2011-19. The decline in yearly growth is not preventing massive amounts of sales each year, and spending will increase in every single country.
This showcases the power of ecommerce retail sales, which is outpacing regular retail sales. The COVID-19 pandemic forced individuals to purchase more goods online, and that trend is not going anywhere. The comfort of shopping from home is not lost on customers.
That’s not to say brick-and-mortar shops are obsolete. They rebounded better than projected in 2021 and exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Ecommerce will outpace brick-and-mortar operations, but the gap is not as wide as originally projected and may take more time than expected.
The next three years also project for declines in yearly growth to 11% (2023), 10% (2024) and 9.2% (2025), but the total sales are still staggering.
The 2025 calendar year is projected for $7.391 trillion in retail ecommerce sales, almost half of the roughly $16 trillion total retail sales in 2012.
That large figure coincides with the projected jump in ecommerce’s percent of total retail sales over the next three years, rising from this year’s 20.3% to 21.5% in 2023, 22.5% in 2024 and 23.6% in 2025. Total retail sales are projected to tally $31.271 trillion in 2025.
This year’s 20.3% projection is the first time ecommerce sales have generated more than one-fifth of the total retail sales worldwide. It’s worth noting this data is skewed by several big countries that have disproportionate digital spending. China makes up a staggering 50.2% of the total worldwide ecommerce sales, while the United States tallies 19.2%.
The United Kingdom ranks third at just 4.4%, a massive dip from China and the United States.
There are also encouraging signs among Asia-Pacific and Latin America markets that are now making up most of the top-10 fastest-growing markets due to expanding middle classes.
The Southeast Asia market is projected for 20.6% of the overall 2022 worldwide ecommerce growth, while Latin America follows at 20.4%. North America registers fifth at 15.5%.
The Philippines is projected for the highest retail ecommerce sales growth in 2022 at 25.9%, followed by India (25.5%), Indonesia (23%), Brazil (22.2%) and Vietnam (19%).
The United States ranks 10th at 15.9%, just behind Mexico (18%).
Countries in Latin America are projected to boost their ecommerce sales in the double-digit percentiles each year until 2025, while Western Europe is projected for just a 6.1% increase this year, it’s lowest-ever and the first time any region has a single-digit growth rate.
This stems from the expected decline following the boon of the last two years, since most countries produced all-time highs in 2020.
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