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PayPal Core to Surpass $1 Trillion in Payment Value in 2022

Users will exceed 200 million globally

 

December 14, 2021 (New York, NY) – Online payment platform PayPal is poised for strong growth next year in terms of both transaction value and users, according to Insider Intelligence’s latest forecast on payment systems. The pandemic has accelerated demand for touchless payment apps, solidifying PayPal as the worldwide leader in the space.

Following double-digit growth in 2021, total transaction value on PayPal’s core platform will jump 22.3% next year to reach $1.144 trillion* globally, surpassing the $1 trillion dollar mark for the first time.

“Eager to keep up with Square and other competitors, PayPal is investing aggressively in its product,” said Oscar Orozco, director of forecasting at Insider Intelligence. “It is acquiring overseas competitors and offering consumers multifunctionality in one app, which we expect to drive transaction value higher.”

The US makes up just over half (52.8%) of PayPal’s worldwide transaction value, even though the country makes up just under half of its user base (see below for user figures). PayPal’s transaction value internationally is growing slightly faster than in the US, meaning non-American markets will begin to take up a growing share of the value pie.

In terms of users on its core app, PayPal will grow 7.2% to surpass 200 million users worldwide for the first time (209.3 million). The US represents a slowly shrinking 45.7% of global users, as international usage grows at a slightly faster rate.

“We expect PayPal to continue growing at a strong rate, with consumer interest in flexible payment options rising. The pandemic has fueled consumer demand for fewer touch points in-stores and easier checkout processes online,” said Jaime Toplin, senior analyst at Insider Intelligence. “As cash usage falls and ecommerce skyrockets worldwide, digital wallets are becoming even more relevant. PayPal is toward the front of the pack as merchants work to keep up by enabling acceptance and consumers seek out digital options with wide reach.”

Also noteworthy in 2022, 34.1% of the US population will use PayPal, surpassing one-third for the first time.

“PayPal’s penetration into the US market has likely been driven in part by the launch of its new super app, which bundles a wider variety of its services into one destination,” Toplin said. “This can make the giant’s offerings more convenient and compelling for users and might enable product discovery for existing users.”

 

* the value of payments on PayPal, net of payment reversals, completed by users on PayPal Core accounts and those enabled by PayPal via a partner payment solution; excludes gateway-exclusive transactions, Honey, Hyperwallet, iZettle, Pay in 4 and PayPal Credit transactions, along with P2P payments via Venmo and Xoom

 

* ages 14+; internet users who have accessed a PayPal Core account digitally and/or in-store and have completed a transaction at least once in the past month; includes P2P payments and purchases of goods and services; PayPal Core excludes Honey, Hyperwallet, iZettle, PayPal Credit, Pay in 4, Venmo and Xoom

 

Methodology

Insider Intelligence forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms, and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers, and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each Insider Intelligence forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends, and economic changes.

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Posted on December 15, 2021.