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Total Programmatic Ad Spend Expected to Cool in 2022

December 5, 2022 (New York, NY) – Based on updates to our US Digital Ad spending numbers, our forecast for programmatic ad spend has decreased. We now expect programmatic ad spend to grow 11% to a total of $127.34 billion in 2022, down from the 22% growth expected in Q2.

Programmatic direct as a percentage of total programmatic is expected to continue growing, hitting 75% by 2024. RTB technology is expanding but for the foreseeable future we expect programmatic guaranteed to continue taking share year-over-year.  Programmatic direct advertisers are continuing to shift away from the open exchange towards PMP due to several perceived advantages:

 

  • Preservation of buyer-seller relationships. In open auction transactions, anyone can sell or purchase ad inventory without either side knowing who’s on the other end. In PMPs, buyers and sellers can more easily work in tandem to achieve desirable outcomes.
  • Inventory quality assurance. Publishers often package premium inventory for select advertisers through PMPs
  • Protection against ad fraud. By associating with trusted partners in a private setting, advertisers can more easily hold publishers accountable and advocate for stricter protocols.
  • Insulation from brand safety risks. This benefits both advertisers and publishers.”

 

CONNECTED TV

In 2022, we expect CTV programmatic display advertising to overtake Desktop/Laptop. CTV advertising in general has shown strong growth through the previous years, as Americans are spending more time consuming OTT content via connected TVs.  The launch of new ad-supported tiers on OTT platforms such as Netflix, Disney+, and Paramount+ will assist in generating more advertising revenue and helping CTV grow in the overall programmatic digital display marketplace.

“While RTB is gaining traction among CTV ad buyers, most CTV inventory outside of YouTube is still purchased directly from major streaming platforms, either via old-school insertion orders or programmatic direct,” said Evelyn Mitchell, analyst at Insider Intelligence. “To ensure the future growth of programmatic CTV, ad tech companies that sell CTV inventory on the open exchange need to need to make progress in quality assurance and measurement.”

 

WALLED GARDENS

Programmatic ad spend across walled gardens is expected to grow 11.7% in 2022 to $91.33 billion, down from the previous 2022 forecast of $99.43 billion. The expected decrease is due to a downturn in total ad spending on the major digital platforms, such as Meta, Amazon, Google, Snap, etc..

“The current programmatic ad space is attempting to innovate away from walled gardens via ad tech companies to give more control of the space to the open internet,” said Andrew Spink, forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “However, for the foreseeable future we don’t expect the ad tech companies to catch up fast enough and expect that the market share of walled gardens will continue to increase to $122.29B making up 72.% of total programmatic ad spend.”

 

Methodology
Forecasts and estimates from Insider Intelligence are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms, and public companies, as well as from interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers, and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends, and economic changes. 

  

About Insider Intelligence 

Insider Intelligence aims to be the world’s leading research service focused on digital transformation. Our mission is to empower professionals with the data, insights, and analysis to make grounded decisions in a digital world. Each year, we produce nearly 300 reports, 7,000 charts, 1,500 newsletters, and 200 forecasts across the industries of Advertising, Media, and Marketing; Financial Services; Healthcare; and Retail and Ecommerce. Insider Intelligence is owned by European media giant Axel Springer S.E. and was formed in 2020 from the combination of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence (BII). 

Posted on December 12, 2022.